PPG Industries (PPG)

NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$107.39-0.39%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PPG Industries’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.64 → 8.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Continue disciplined capital allocation with dividends and buybacks	The company returns cash with steady dividends and buybacks.	Intact	Significant cut in dividends or buybacks	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain full-year EPS guidance near $7.9	PPG keeps its full-year EPS guidance near $8.10.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $7.7 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.95 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.7 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20261.95 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a99ba435-414c-401c-b521-9e990b163a1a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve flat to low single-digit organic sales growth	A primary condition in PPG Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >=0% to 4% YoY.	Intact	Organic sales growth falls below 0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable profit margins near current levels	Profit margins stay stable.	Broken	Profit margins decline significantly below recent levels	Net margin: 9.72% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 29, 20269.721913 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a99ba435-414c-401c-b521-9e990b163a1a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.61

$8.66 → $8.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$17.34B

$17.20B → $17.34B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.66	$17,200,887,370	21 / 20
2026-07-25	$8.61	$17,213,698,835	12 / 16
2026-07-26	$8.66	$17,200,887,370	21 / 20
2026-07-27	$8.66	$17,200,887,370	21 / 20
2026-07-28	$8.66	$17,200,887,370	21 / 20
2026-07-29	$8.66	$17,200,662,370	21 / 20
2026-07-30	$8.62	$17,276,888,916	12 / 15
2026-07-31	$8.62	$17,324,942,220	12 / 15
2026-08-01	$8.62	$17,324,942,220	12 / 15
2026-08-02	$8.68	$17,322,941,730	21 / 20
2026-08-03	$8.62	$17,328,108,868	11 / 15
2026-08-04	$8.68	$17,322,941,730	21 / 20
2026-08-05	$8.62	$17,328,108,868	11 / 15
2026-08-06	$8.62	$17,328,108,868	11 / 15
2026-08-07	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 15
2026-08-08	$8.68	$17,340,762,030	21 / 20
2026-08-09	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 15
2026-08-10	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 15
2026-08-12	$8.68	$17,340,762,030	21 / 20
2026-08-13	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 15
2026-08-14	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 15
2026-08-15	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 15
2026-08-16	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 15
2026-08-17	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 15
2026-08-18	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 16
2026-08-19	$8.62	$17,340,223,439	12 / 16
2026-08-20	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-21	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-22	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-23	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-24	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-25	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-26	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-27	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-28	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-29	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-30	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-08-31	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-01	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-02	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-03	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-04	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-05	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-06	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-07	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-08	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-09	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-10	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-11	$8.65	$17,331,943,180	12 / 16
2026-09-12	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-13	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-14	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-15	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-16	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-17	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-18	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-19	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-20	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-21	$8.64	$17,332,858,693	13 / 17
2026-09-22	$8.64	$17,322,397,725	13 / 17
2026-09-23	$8.64	$17,322,397,725	13 / 17
2026-09-24	$8.64	$17,322,397,725	13 / 17
2026-09-25	$8.64	$17,323,170,452	13 / 17
2026-09-26	$8.64	$17,323,170,452	13 / 17
2026-09-27	$8.64	$17,323,170,452	13 / 17
2026-09-28	$8.64	$17,323,170,452	13 / 17
2026-09-29	$8.64	$17,323,170,452	13 / 17
2026-09-30	$8.64	$17,323,170,452	13 / 17
2026-10-01	$8.64	$17,323,170,452	13 / 17
2026-10-02	$8.63	$17,323,383,190	13 / 17
2026-10-03	$8.63	$17,323,383,190	13 / 17
2026-10-04	$8.63	$17,323,383,190	13 / 17
2026-10-05	$8.63	$17,323,383,190	13 / 17
2026-10-06	$8.63	$17,340,759,068	13 / 17
2026-10-07	$8.63	$17,340,759,068	13 / 17
2026-10-08	$8.63	$17,340,759,068	13 / 17
2026-10-09	$8.63	$17,340,759,068	13 / 17
2026-10-10	$8.63	$17,340,759,068	13 / 17
2026-10-11	$8.62	$17,339,465,659	13 / 17
2026-10-12	$8.62	$17,339,465,659	13 / 17
2026-10-13	$8.61	$17,339,465,659	13 / 17
2026-10-14	$8.61	$17,339,465,659	13 / 17
2026-10-15	$8.61	$17,339,465,659	13 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	14
2026-06-01	10	13
2026-07-01	11	13
2026-08-01	10	13
2026-09-01	12	13
2026-10-01	13	12

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 12

$136.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 9

$128.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 5 · prior Jul 30

$125.00 → $116.00-7.2%

BernsteinSep 24

$136.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$74.80$149.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Continue disciplined capital allocation with dividends and buybacksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain full-year EPS guidance near $7.9Diluted EPS: $1.95 per share
Achieve flat to low single-digit organic sales growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain stable profit margins near current levelsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PPG Industries outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state remains intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite some near-term risks.

What's priced into PPG Industries

The market currently prices PPG as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that while there is some optimism, the market is not overly aggressive in its assumptions about future growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to maintaining earnings guidance and driving organic sales growth, which supports a positive fundamental trajectory. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent earnings misses, although the probability of missing again is relatively low.

What PPG Industries hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on PPG's ability to maintain its earnings guidance and the overall performance of the Materials sector. Key factors include inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders, which could influence PPG's momentum.