Pool Corporation (POOL)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$172.57+2.04%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pool Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.82 → 11.77 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand share repurchase program to $600 million	The company plans to increase its share repurchase program to $600 million.	Intact	Share repurchase program expansion is canceled or reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS guidance of $10.87 to $11.17 in 2026	A primary condition in Pool Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is EPS $10.87 to $11.17.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $10.87 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful leadership transition to CEO John B. Watwood	New CEO John B.	Improving	Operational performance declines significantly under new CEO	Qualitative: Earnings beat (Jul 2026) & Insider buying (Aug 2026) vs Target: Stable/Improving ops July 2026 earnings beat and August 2026 insider buying indicate confidence and stable operations, offsetting prior Berkshire sell-off concerns. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 6 quarters. The CEO transition occurred in 2026-Q2 with John B. Watwood appointed successor. Management emphasized leadership transition as a growth driver, but financials show stable revenue and earnings, indicating early stage of impact. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain revenue growth near 6% annually	A primary condition in Pool Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 3.6% next year	Revenue growth: 2.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262.152275 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: db57e0ab-f541-4025-a822-c8f74b264560. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.77

$12.00 → $11.77 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.63B

$5.64B → $5.63B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.00	$5,638,447,900	11 / 14
2026-07-25	$11.91	$5,636,092,054	9 / 11
2026-07-26	$11.82	$5,629,193,600	12 / 14
2026-07-27	$11.87	$5,636,149,197	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$11.83	$5,629,193,600	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$11.83	$5,629,193,600	13 / 14
2026-07-30	$11.83	$5,629,193,600	13 / 14
2026-07-31	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$11.82	$5,629,122,170	13 / 14
2026-08-03	$11.82	$5,629,122,170	13 / 14
2026-08-04	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$11.82	$5,629,122,170	13 / 14
2026-08-06	$11.82	$5,629,122,170	13 / 14
2026-08-07	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$11.82	$5,629,122,170	13 / 14
2026-08-13	$11.82	$5,629,122,170	13 / 14
2026-08-14	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$11.82	$5,629,156,340	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$11.82	$5,629,173,776	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$11.82	$5,629,445,204	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$11.82	$5,629,445,204	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$11.82	$5,629,445,204	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$11.82	$5,629,445,204	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$11.82	$5,632,208,857	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$11.82	$5,632,208,857	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$11.82	$5,632,208,857	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$11.82	$5,632,208,857	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$11.82	$5,632,208,857	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$11.82	$5,632,208,857	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$11.82	$5,632,208,857	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$11.82	$5,632,208,857	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$11.82	$5,632,180,696	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$11.82	$5,632,180,696	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$11.82	$5,632,180,696	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$11.82	$5,632,180,696	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$11.82	$5,632,180,696	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$11.82	$5,632,180,696	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$11.82	$5,632,180,696	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$11.82	$5,632,180,696	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$11.82	$5,632,196,969	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$11.77	$5,625,408,857	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$11.77	$5,625,408,857	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$11.77	$5,625,408,857	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$11.77	$5,625,408,857	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$11.77	$5,625,588,724	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$11.77	$5,625,588,724	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$11.77	$5,625,588,724	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	8	1
2026-06-01	5	8	1
2026-07-01	5	8	1
2026-08-01	5	9	1
2026-09-01	5	9	1
2026-10-01	5	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand share repurchase program to $600 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve EPS guidance of $10.87 to $11.17 in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain revenue growth near 6% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pool Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady earnings and capital allocation. The current thesis state is intact, but confidence has shifted to medium due to recent performance and sector headwinds.

What's priced into Pool Corporation

The market currently prices POOL as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be fully accounting for potential risks or challenges ahead.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance has been strong, with management maintaining guidance for diluted earnings per share. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, as the company has struggled in recent quarters.

What Pool Corporation hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain earnings guidance and navigate sector challenges. Key factors include inflation trends and the performance of major consumer discretionary companies.