Pentair (PNR)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$53.44-0.02%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pentair’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.18 → 5.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchases of at least $200 million per quarter	A supporting condition in Pentair's published investment case. The stated target is >= $200 million share repurchases next quarter.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below $100 million next quarter	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The company repurchased shares consistently each quarter, including 2.0 million shares for $150 million in 2026-Q2 and increased dividends to $0.27 per share. Capital allocation remains disciplined with steady share repurchases and dividend growth, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating income growth through productivity gains	Profit margins improve with productivity gains.	Broken	Operating income falls below $200M next quarter	Operating income: $166.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $210M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026166,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45a048ec-46cc-4cbc-bae5-f4474083ad65. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted operating income increased from $242.5 million in 2025-Q1 to $259.1 million in 2026-Q1 (+7%), but declined to $237 million in 2026-Q2 (-20% vs 2025-Q2). While management emphasizes margin expansion via Transformation, recent adjusted operating income shows mixed results, indicating limited progress in sustaining margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth of about 4.5% annually	A primary condition in Pentair's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.5% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Revenue growth: -16.96% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026-16.96198 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45a048ec-46cc-4cbc-bae5-f4474083ad65. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew modestly from approximately $4.08 billion in 2024 to $4.18 billion in 2025. Adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 is approximately $4.60 to $4.80. Management consistently emphasizes growth through innovation and market expansion, but recent revenue growth is modest and EPS guidance has been revised downward, indicating limited progress in accelerating growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.19

$5.33 → $5.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.42B

$4.25B → $4.42B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.33	$4,249,763,750	17 / 17
2026-07-25	$5.33	$4,249,763,750	17 / 17
2026-07-26	$5.33	$4,249,763,750	17 / 17
2026-07-27	$5.23	$4,211,886,798	12 / 13
2026-07-28	$5.29	$4,230,997,930	17 / 17
2026-07-29	$5.32	$4,235,024,330	15 / 15
2026-07-30	$5.16	$4,246,090,712	11 / 12
2026-07-31	$5.18	$4,287,799,990	16 / 16
2026-08-01	$5.19	$4,286,732,438	12 / 13
2026-08-02	$5.18	$4,287,799,990	16 / 16
2026-08-03	$5.18	$4,287,799,990	16 / 16
2026-08-04	$5.18	$4,287,799,990	16 / 16
2026-08-05	$5.18	$4,287,799,990	16 / 16
2026-08-06	$5.18	$4,287,799,990	16 / 16
2026-08-07	$5.19	$4,286,702,967	12 / 13
2026-08-08	$5.18	$4,287,799,990	16 / 16
2026-08-09	$5.19	$4,286,702,967	12 / 13
2026-08-10	$5.18	$4,287,799,990	16 / 16
2026-08-12	$5.18	$4,287,799,990	16 / 16
2026-08-13	$5.19	$4,286,702,967	12 / 13
2026-08-14	$5.19	$4,286,702,967	12 / 13
2026-08-15	$5.19	$4,286,702,967	12 / 13
2026-08-16	$5.19	$4,286,702,967	12 / 13
2026-08-17	$5.19	$4,286,702,967	12 / 13
2026-08-18	$5.19	$4,286,702,967	12 / 13
2026-08-19	$5.19	$4,286,702,967	12 / 13
2026-08-20	$5.19	$4,286,684,218	12 / 13
2026-08-21	$5.19	$4,286,684,218	12 / 13
2026-08-22	$5.19	$4,286,659,218	12 / 13
2026-08-23	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	12 / 13
2026-08-24	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-08-25	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-08-26	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-08-27	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-08-28	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-08-29	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-08-30	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-08-31	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-01	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-02	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-03	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-04	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-05	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-06	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-07	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-08	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-09	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-10	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$5.18	$4,290,169,833	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$5.18	$4,290,025,654	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$5.18	$4,290,025,654	11 / 12
2026-09-14	$5.18	$4,290,025,654	11 / 12
2026-09-15	$5.18	$4,290,025,654	11 / 12
2026-09-16	$5.18	$4,290,025,654	11 / 12
2026-09-17	$5.18	$4,290,025,654	11 / 12
2026-09-18	$5.18	$4,290,025,654	11 / 12
2026-09-19	$5.18	$4,290,025,654	11 / 12
2026-09-20	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-21	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-22	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-23	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-24	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-25	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-26	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-27	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-28	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-29	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-09-30	$5.18	$4,290,492,320	11 / 12
2026-10-01	$5.17	$4,287,978,987	11 / 12
2026-10-02	$5.17	$4,287,978,987	11 / 12
2026-10-03	$5.17	$4,287,978,987	11 / 12
2026-10-04	$5.17	$4,287,978,987	11 / 12
2026-10-05	$5.17	$4,287,978,987	11 / 12
2026-10-06	$5.17	$4,287,978,987	11 / 12
2026-10-07	$5.20	$4,397,042,801	11 / 12
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	$5.19	$4,393,558,488	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$5.19	$4,424,440,539	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$5.19	$4,424,440,539	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	3	3
2026-06-01	13	3	3
2026-07-01	13	6	3
2026-08-01	8	6	3
2026-09-01	9	6	3
2026-10-01	9	6	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior Jul 21

$85.00 → $65.00-23.5%

William BlairOct 14

$50.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 9 · prior Jul 15

$72.00 → $60.00-16.7%

$0$46.75$93.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchases of at least $200 million per quarterRequired source inputs unavailable
Operating income growth through productivity gainsPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth of about 4.5% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pentair outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term sales and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, but recent financial performance has been only modest, and management faces challenges in executing its growth strategy.

What's priced into Pentair

The market currently values PNR as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors are not fully pricing in the potential for growth. The valuation suggests that while there is some fragility in execution quality, it is not overly concentrated in a turbulent market.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may show limited progress in accelerating growth, as management's recent revenue growth has been modest and adjusted EPS guidance has been revised downward. However, disciplined capital allocation through share repurchases and dividends remains on track.

What Pentair hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could provide a favorable tailwind for PNR. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose significant risks.