Principal Financial Group (PFG)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$108.81-0.14%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Principal Financial Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.41 → 10.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Deploy $1.5-$1.8 billion in capital in 2026	It plans to deploy $1.5-$1.8 billion in capital this year.	Intact	Capital deployment falls below $1.3 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 7 quarters. Management targets $1.5-$1.8 billion capital deployment annually. Actual capital returned was over $1.5 billion in 2025, including $427 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows consistent delivery on disciplined capital deployment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve EPS growth of 9-12% in 2026	A primary condition in Principal Financial Group's published investment case. The stated target is 9-12% YoY EPS growth.	Intact	EPS growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26	Diluted EPS growth: 2.79% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 9-12% YoY EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262.793296 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1e97e2f8-5e40-418e-bbf2-9b9e3f1c0c80. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain ROE of 15-17% in FY26	A primary condition in Principal Financial Group's published investment case. The stated target is 15-17% ROE.	Intact	ROE falls below 13% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.26

$10.39 → $10.26 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.39	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-07-25	$10.31	$17,827,087,080	11 / 6
2026-07-26	$10.38	$17,849,995,265	7 / 5
2026-07-27	$10.31	$17,827,087,080	11 / 6
2026-07-28	$10.31	$17,827,087,080	11 / 6
2026-07-29	$10.33	$17,827,087,080	11 / 6
2026-07-30	$10.33	$17,827,087,080	11 / 6
2026-07-31	$10.37	$17,826,159,951	7 / 5
2026-08-01	$10.37	$17,826,159,951	7 / 5
2026-08-02	$10.34	$17,657,844,490	11 / 5
2026-08-03	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-04	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-05	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-06	$10.35	$17,720,068,180	11 / 5
2026-08-07	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-08	$10.35	$17,720,068,180	11 / 5
2026-08-09	$10.35	$17,720,068,180	11 / 5
2026-08-10	$10.35	$17,720,068,180	11 / 5
2026-08-12	$10.39	$17,720,068,180	12 / 5
2026-08-13	$10.39	$17,720,068,180	12 / 5
2026-08-14	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-15	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-16	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-17	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-18	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-19	$10.41	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-20	$10.43	$17,899,892,997	8 / 5
2026-08-21	$10.43	$17,899,892,997	8 / 5
2026-08-22	$10.43	$17,899,892,997	7 / 5
2026-08-23	$10.43	$17,899,892,997	7 / 5
2026-08-24	$10.43	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-25	$10.43	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-26	$10.44	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-27	$10.44	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-28	$10.44	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-29	$10.44	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-30	$10.44	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-31	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$10.44	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$10.41	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$10.43	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$10.43	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$10.43	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$10.43	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$10.43	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$10.43	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$10.43	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$10.42	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$10.37	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$10.37	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$10.35	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$10.32	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$10.32	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-12	$10.32	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-13	$10.28	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-14	$10.26	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-15	$10.26	Unavailable	7 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	9	1
2026-06-01	2	9	2
2026-07-01	2	8	2
2026-08-01	2	8	2
2026-09-01	2	8	2
2026-10-01	2	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 7

$92.00 → $86.00-6.5%

Piper SandlerSep 28 · prior Jun 24

$125.00 → $128.00+2.4%

$0$70.40$140.80

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Deploy $1.5-$1.8 billion in capital in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve EPS growth of 9-12% in 2026Diluted EPS growth: 2.79%
Maintain ROE of 15-17% in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Principal Financial Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis state is mixed, as management is on track with some priorities but faces challenges in the broader financial sector.

What's priced into Principal Financial Group

The market seems to expect a durable premium for PFG, reflected in its high valuation compared to peers. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some investors may be cautious about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is targeting 9-12% annual non-GAAP operating EPS growth, which they are currently on track to achieve. However, the return on equity (ROE) shows mixed progress, and there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations in the near term.

What Principal Financial Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth targets and the performance of key sector bellwethers. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could significantly impact PFG's performance.