Penn Entertainment (PENN)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.50-6.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Penn Entertainment’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.47 → 1.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.94B
EPS	—	0.442
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	7.42B
EPS	—	0.889
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	7.73B
EPS	—	1.487

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce traditional net leverage by more than 2 turns	The company aims to reduce its debt by more than two turns.	Intact	net leverage reduction is less than 2 turns over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Traditional net leverage improved from 4.5x at 2025-Q4 to 2.9x at 2026-Q2, and lease-adjusted net leverage improved from 6.8x to 5.9x over the same period. Management has consistently emphasized deleveraging and the financial data shows delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve earnings per share to at least $0.89 in FY26	A primary condition in Penn Entertainment's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.89.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $0.89 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least 5.6% revenue growth next year	Analysts expect revenue growth of about 6% next year.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 5.6% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.49

$1.46 → $1.49 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.73B

$7.68B → $7.73B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.46	$7,680,396,060	7 / 18
2026-07-25	$1.49	$7,713,281,850	7 / 18
2026-07-26	$1.62	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-07-27	$1.62	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-07-28	$1.62	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-07-29	$1.49	$7,713,281,850	7 / 18
2026-07-30	$1.49	$7,713,281,850	7 / 18
2026-07-31	$1.62	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-01	$1.62	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-02	$1.49	$7,713,281,850	7 / 18
2026-08-03	$1.62	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-04	$1.62	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-05	$1.62	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-06	$1.62	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-07	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-08	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-09	$1.53	$7,713,548,900	5 / 18
2026-08-10	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-12	$1.45	$7,725,050,320	6 / 18
2026-08-13	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-14	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-15	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	8 / 14
2026-08-16	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	7 / 14
2026-08-17	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	7 / 14
2026-08-18	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	7 / 14
2026-08-19	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	7 / 14
2026-08-20	$1.63	$7,707,367,163	7 / 14
2026-08-21	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-22	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-23	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-24	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-25	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-26	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-27	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-28	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-29	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-30	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-08-31	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-01	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-02	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-03	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-04	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-05	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-06	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-07	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-08	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-09	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-10	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-11	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-12	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-13	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-14	$1.47	$7,724,022,913	8 / 15
2026-09-15	$1.47	$7,724,021,948	8 / 15
2026-09-16	$1.47	$7,724,021,948	8 / 15
2026-09-17	$1.47	$7,724,021,948	8 / 15
2026-09-18	$1.47	$7,724,021,948	8 / 15
2026-09-19	$1.47	$7,724,021,948	8 / 15
2026-09-20	$1.47	$7,724,021,948	8 / 15
2026-09-21	$1.47	$7,724,021,948	8 / 15
2026-09-22	$1.47	$7,724,021,948	8 / 15
2026-09-23	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-09-24	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-09-25	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-09-26	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-09-27	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-09-28	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-09-29	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-09-30	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-10-01	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-10-02	$1.47	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-10-03	$1.52	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-10-04	$1.52	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-10-05	$1.52	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-10-06	$1.52	$7,726,080,771	8 / 15
2026-10-07	$1.52	$7,729,010,183	8 / 15
2026-10-08	$1.52	$7,728,083,713	8 / 15
2026-10-09	$1.52	$7,728,083,713	8 / 15
2026-10-10	$1.52	$7,728,083,713	8 / 15
2026-10-11	$1.54	$7,728,083,713	8 / 15
2026-10-12	$1.54	$7,728,083,713	8 / 15
2026-10-13	$1.54	$7,729,137,945	8 / 15
2026-10-14	$1.47	$7,727,530,474	8 / 15
2026-10-15	$1.47	$7,727,530,474	8 / 15
2026-10-16	$1.47	$7,727,530,474	8 / 15
2026-10-17	$1.47	$7,727,530,474	8 / 15
2026-10-18	$1.47	$7,727,530,474	8 / 15
2026-10-19	$1.47	$7,727,530,474	8 / 15
2026-10-20	$1.48	$7,726,571,624	8 / 15
2026-10-21	$1.49	$7,727,148,094	8 / 15
2026-10-22	$1.49	$7,726,037,572	8 / 15
2026-10-23	$1.49	$7,726,037,572	8 / 15
2026-10-24	$1.49	$7,726,037,572	8 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	10	0
2026-06-01	11	10	1
2026-07-01	12	9	1
2026-08-01	12	8	0
2026-09-01	12	8	0
2026-10-01	13	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Jul 14

$23.00 → $22.00-4.3%

Piper SandlerOct 13

$26.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Jun 26

$26.00 → $23.00-11.5%

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Jul 9

$26.00 → $27.00+3.8%

Deutsche BankOct 6

$25.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$14.85$29.70

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce traditional net leverage by more than 2 turnsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Improve earnings per share to at least $0.89 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve at least 5.6% revenue growth next yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Penn Entertainment outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an elevated-risk, loss-making business with a mixed growth and turnaround profile. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on debt reduction and retail projects, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Penn Entertainment

The valuation model shows PENN at a 2.5% premium to peers, with low confidence and an expectations gap of -0.09. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified and flags low fragility, but the evidence does not specify exactly what operational assumptions the market has already priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses create some risk, although the stated miss probability is low. Over the multi-year view, leverage has improved and the retail projects opened on schedule, while Interactive losses narrowed slightly from the first to the second quarter; company momentum and composite insight have weakened recently.

What Penn Entertainment hinges on

The next guidance update is a key swing factor, since a cut could weigh on the business outlook and lead estimates lower. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on sustained debt reduction, retail growth, and whether the Alberta launch helps Interactive progress toward profitability; sector peers’ results may signal whether the broader tailwind strengthens or fades.