Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG)

Q: What's priced into Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) stock?

The market seems to have priced in a low level of execution risk, given the company's fragile earnings quality. PEG is currently valued as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating modest growth assumptions.

Q: What does the Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) outlook hinge on?

The long-term thesis hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector leaders. Additionally, any negative adjustments to guidance could significantly impact market sentiment.

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$71.49+1.82%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Public Service Enterprise Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.67 → 4.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS grows to about $4.34 in 2026	PSEG grows earnings to about $4.34 per share in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $4.0 in 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS ~4.34 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 4, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 49bff6ad-9298-4257-a42f-1b21558ee15e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management reiterated a long-term non-GAAP Operating Earnings growth outlook of 6%-8% CAGR through 2030, supported by regulated capital investments and nuclear output hedging. The company has a 21-year track record of meeting or exceeding guidance. Financials show non-GAAP Operating Earnings increased from $4.05 per share in 2025 to a reaffirmed guidance range of $4.28 to $4.40 for 2026, consistent with the growth target. The trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
No major leadership disruptions	A supporting condition in Public Service Enterprise Group's published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider selling or executive departures.	Intact	Significant insider selling or key executive retirements	No significant insider selling or executive departures 2026 news shows stable leadership and positive earnings. Insider selling events are from 2024, not recent. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $3.85B in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Public Service Enterprise Group's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $3.85B.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 1% annually	Revenue: $2.554B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $3.85B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 20262,554,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 49bff6ad-9298-4257-a42f-1b21558ee15e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management reiterated a long-term non-GAAP Operating Earnings growth outlook of 6%-8% CAGR through 2030, supported by regulated capital investments and nuclear output hedging. The company has a 21-year track record of meeting or exceeding guidance. Financials show non-GAAP Operating Earnings increased from $4.05 per share in 2025 to a reaffirmed guidance range of $4.28 to $4.40 for 2026, consistent with the growth target. The trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain P/E below peer median of 24.44	A supporting condition in Public Service Enterprise Group's published investment case. The stated target is P/E <= 20.	Intact	P/E rises above 24.44 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 16.48x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202616.4812 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: PEG:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.66

$4.69 → $4.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.08B

$13.06B → $13.08B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.69	$13,057,414,330	23 / 16
2026-07-25	$4.68	$13,091,144,480	22 / 16
2026-07-26	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-07-27	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-07-28	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-07-29	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-07-30	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-07-31	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-08-01	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-08-02	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-08-03	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 11
2026-08-04	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-08-05	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-08-06	$4.68	$12,994,204,151	14 / 12
2026-08-07	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-08	$4.68	$13,092,551,700	22 / 16
2026-08-09	$4.68	$13,092,551,700	22 / 16
2026-08-10	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-12	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-13	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-14	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-15	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-16	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-17	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-18	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	13 / 11
2026-08-19	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	13 / 11
2026-08-20	$4.67	$13,075,172,315	13 / 11
2026-08-21	$4.67	$13,076,314,592	13 / 11
2026-08-22	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-23	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-24	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-25	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-26	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-27	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-28	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-29	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-30	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-31	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-01	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-02	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-03	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-04	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-05	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-06	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-07	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-08	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-09	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-10	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-11	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-12	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-13	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-14	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-15	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-16	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-17	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-18	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-19	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-20	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-21	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-22	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-23	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-24	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-25	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-26	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-27	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-28	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-29	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-30	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-01	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-02	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-03	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-04	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-05	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-06	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-07	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-08	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-09	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-10	$4.67	$13,081,656,113	13 / 11
2026-10-11	$4.67	$13,081,656,113	13 / 11
2026-10-12	$4.67	$13,081,656,113	13 / 11
2026-10-13	$4.66	$13,081,656,113	13 / 11
2026-10-14	$4.66	$13,076,213,256	13 / 11
2026-10-15	$4.66	$13,076,070,399	13 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	13	1
2026-06-01	9	13	1
2026-07-01	9	13	1
2026-08-01	9	14	1
2026-09-01	9	14	0
2026-10-01	9	13	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 15 · prior Aug 13

$84.00 → $78.00-7.1%

Argus ResearchSep 29

$86.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 18 · prior Aug 21

$91.00 → $88.00-3.3%

$0$50.05$100.10

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS grows to about $4.34 in 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to at least $3.85B in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Maintain P/E below peer median of 24.44P/E (TTM): 16.48x

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Public Service Enterprise Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PEG represents a utility investment with a focus on stable earnings growth. The current thesis is cautious, reflecting a mix of positive management priorities and sector headwinds.

What's priced into Public Service Enterprise Group

The market seems to have priced in a low level of execution risk, given the company's fragile earnings quality. PEG is currently valued as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating modest growth assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its long-term earnings growth target of 6%-8% CAGR through 2030. However, recent financial performance has been neutral, and while the risk of missing guidance is low, it remains a point of concern given past performance.

What Public Service Enterprise Group hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector leaders. Additionally, any negative adjustments to guidance could significantly impact market sentiment.

Bottom line

In the next 1 to 3 years, PEG's performance will depend on its ability to execute its growth plans amid sector challenges. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.66

$4.69 → $4.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.08B

$13.06B → $13.08B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.69	$13,057,414,330	23 / 16
2026-07-25	$4.68	$13,091,144,480	22 / 16
2026-07-26	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-07-27	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-07-28	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-07-29	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-07-30	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-07-31	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-08-01	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 12
2026-08-02	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-08-03	$4.68	$12,994,193,901	14 / 11
2026-08-04	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-08-05	$4.68	$13,088,956,980	22 / 16
2026-08-06	$4.68	$12,994,204,151	14 / 12
2026-08-07	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-08	$4.68	$13,092,551,700	22 / 16
2026-08-09	$4.68	$13,092,551,700	22 / 16
2026-08-10	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-12	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-13	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-14	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-15	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-16	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-17	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	14 / 12
2026-08-18	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	13 / 11
2026-08-19	$4.68	$12,998,302,148	13 / 11
2026-08-20	$4.67	$13,075,172,315	13 / 11
2026-08-21	$4.67	$13,076,314,592	13 / 11
2026-08-22	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-23	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-24	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-25	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-26	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-27	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-28	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-29	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-30	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-08-31	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-01	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-02	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-03	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-04	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-05	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-06	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-07	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-08	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-09	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-10	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-11	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-12	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-13	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-14	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-15	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-16	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-17	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-18	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-19	$4.67	$13,076,278,528	13 / 11
2026-09-20	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-21	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-22	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-23	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-24	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-25	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-26	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-27	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-28	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-29	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-09-30	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-01	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-02	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-03	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-04	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-05	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-06	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-07	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-08	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-09	$4.67	$13,082,513,256	13 / 11
2026-10-10	$4.67	$13,081,656,113	13 / 11
2026-10-11	$4.67	$13,081,656,113	13 / 11
2026-10-12	$4.67	$13,081,656,113	13 / 11
2026-10-13	$4.66	$13,081,656,113	13 / 11
2026-10-14	$4.66	$13,076,213,256	13 / 11
2026-10-15	$4.66	$13,076,070,399	13 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings