PDF Solutions, Inc. (PDFS)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$39.32-0.38%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PDF Solutions, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	74.45M
EPS	—	0.376
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	263.78M
EPS	—	1.293
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	318.29M
EPS	—	1.652

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand market adoption of Exensio and eProbe products	Market adoption of key products like Exensio and eProbe could drive future growth.	Improving	No meaningful adoption growth or product setbacks reported	20% growth target vs sustained adoption Q2 earnings beat, 20% growth target, and analyst upgrades support product adoption expansion. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1 and reiterated in 2026-Q2. Management highlighted customer wins and shipments for Exensio and eProbe products, indicating active market adoption efforts. While specific revenue or volume metrics are not disclosed, these customer engagements suggest progress in expanding product adoption. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve operating margin towards 27% long-term target	The company is working to reach long-term margin targets of 27%.	Improving	Operating margin remains below 10% by FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin was 76% in 2026-Q1 and 73% in 2026-Q2, below the 77% target. Non-GAAP operating margin was 25% in 2026-Q1 and 22% in 2026-Q2, below the 27% target. Management continues to emphasize margin improvement, but recent quarters show slight margin declines, indicating limited progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve at least 20% annual revenue growth	A primary condition in PDF Solutions, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26	Revenue growth: 18.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202618.947185 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ddee4da7-70f5-4f29-9763-3cfcf49a184a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total revenues increased from $51.7M in 2025-Q2 to $61.5M in 2026-Q2, a 19% year-over-year increase, consistent with the reaffirmed 20% annual growth target. Full year 2025 revenues grew 22% over 2024. Management is delivering on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.32B

Unavailable → $0.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	$1.56	$316,053,400	5 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	$1.57	$316,233,400	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$1.57	$316,233,400	5 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	$1.63	$318,403,670	6 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$318,756,114	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$318,286,600	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	0
2026-06-01	4	0
2026-07-01	4	0
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

D.A. DavidsonOct 19 · prior Sep 21

$24.00 → $68.00+183.3%

NeedhamSep 25

$60.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$37.40$74.80

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve operating margin towards 27% long-term targetDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve at least 20% annual revenue growthRevenue growth: 18.95%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PDF Solutions, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PDFS is a growth-oriented technology business with robust earnings quality and strong recent performance. Its multi-year view is intact, and its signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though the overall risk level remains high.

What's priced into PDF Solutions, Inc.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, despite a model estimate that it is cheaper than peers; the evidence also shows an expectations gap near zero. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to unusually stretched expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term revenue growth is tracking management’s 20% annual goal: second-quarter revenue rose 19% year over year, and full-year 2025 revenue grew 22%. Margins remain below management’s targets and edged lower in the latest quarter, while the recent earnings beats support the current thesis; a guidance cut would be a key near-term concern.

What PDF Solutions, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on sustaining roughly 20% revenue growth, improving margins toward management’s targets, and turning Exensio and eProbe customer activity into broader adoption. Near-term conditions also depend on the next guidance update and the technology-sector backdrop, including interest-rate changes and results from sector bellwethers.