Pacira BioSciences, Inc. (PCRX)

Q: What's priced into Pacira BioSciences, Inc. (PCRX) stock?

PCRX is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of 1.24 and expectations that appear broadly aligned with fundamentals. The expectations gap is modest, and no fragility signals are flagged, but the recent decline in the valuation measure does not remove the premium.

Q: What does the Pacira BioSciences, Inc. (PCRX) outlook hinge on?

The next call matters: a cut to reaffirmed guidance would weaken the near-term setup. A weakening jobs trend could also pressure cyclical healthcare names, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.42+0.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pacira BioSciences, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	201.71M
EPS	—	0.834
FY 2026 · Annual
EXPAREL product revenue	$600M–$620M	—
Revenue	$735M–$760M	754.33M
EPS	—	2.896
Gross margin	77%–79%non-GAAP	—
R&D	$105M–$115Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	790.02M
EPS	—	3.459

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Receive up to $140 million from iovera divestiture	The company gains $140 million from selling its iovera business.	Intact	Divestiture deal fails or proceeds fall below $70 million upfront	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company completed the divestiture of the iovera business to Zimmer Biomet in 2026-Q2, receiving $73.6 million in cash. Management has delivered on this capital allocation priority as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Non-GAAP gross margin stays between 77% and 79% in 2026	A primary condition in Pacira BioSciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 77% to 79%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 77% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently guides to a non-GAAP gross margin range of 77% to 79% for 2026, down from 80-82% in 2025. The margin guidance reflects a slight decline, indicating mixed progress in maintaining prior higher margins. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Non-GAAP net income reaches $24.5 million in 2026	Net income hits $24.5 million in 2026.	Intact	Net income falls below $24.5 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue grows to $745M-$770M in 2026	A primary condition in Pacira BioSciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $745 million and <= $770 million.	Broken	Total revenue falls below $745 million in FY26	Revenue: $192.399M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $745 million and <= $770 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026192,399,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cf1fe629-576e-48ae-a6c1-f08ac1a2b61a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Full-year 2025 revenue was $726.4 million, and 2026 guidance was reiterated and updated to $735 million to $760 million after divesting iovera. The trajectory shows management maintaining this revenue target with adjustments reflecting business changes, indicating mixed progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.46

$3.65 → $3.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.79B

$0.83B → $0.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	$3.61	$816,146,940	6 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.54	$796,484,340	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.54	$796,484,340	6 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-25	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.46	$789,706,350	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.46	$789,706,350	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.46	$790,020,000	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.46	$790,020,000	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	2	1
2026-06-01	4	2	1
2026-07-01	3	2	1
2026-08-01	4	2	1
2026-09-01	5	3	1
2026-10-01	5	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades4 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 9 · prior Oct 7

$31.00 → $36.50+17.7%

H.C. WainwrightOct 9

$36.50New observation · no comparable prior

$0$20.08$40.15

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Receive up to $140 million from iovera divestitureDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Non-GAAP gross margin stays between 77% and 79% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Non-GAAP net income reaches $24.5 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue grows to $745M-$770M in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pacira BioSciences, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PCRX is a growth-focused healthcare business, not yet a profitable compounder, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by revenue growth and an ongoing growth strategy, while elevated risk and loss-making earnings quality keep the thesis uncertain.

What's priced into Pacira BioSciences, Inc.

PCRX is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of 1.24 and expectations that appear broadly aligned with fundamentals. The expectations gap is modest, and no fragility signals are flagged, but the recent decline in the valuation measure does not remove the premium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth supports management’s 5x30 strategy, and the company recently reported an earnings beat. Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance, though progress is mixed, and its gross-margin range is below the prior year; losses and erratic earnings results remain risks.

What Pacira BioSciences, Inc. hinges on

The next call matters: a cut to reaffirmed guidance would weaken the near-term setup. A weakening jobs trend could also pressure cyclical healthcare names, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustained revenue growth and management execution, against elevated risk, ongoing losses, and a valuation premium. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	201.71M
EPS	—	0.834
FY 2026 · Annual
EXPAREL product revenue	$600M–$620M	—
Revenue	$735M–$760M	754.33M
EPS	—	2.896
Gross margin	77%–79%non-GAAP	—
R&D	$105M–$115Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	790.02M
EPS	—	3.459

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.46

$3.65 → $3.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.79B

$0.83B → $0.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.65	$831,293,940	6 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	$3.61	$816,146,940	6 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.54	$796,484,340	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.54	$796,484,340	6 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$788,706,571	4 / 5
2026-09-25	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.44	$789,703,125	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.46	$789,706,350	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.46	$789,706,350	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.46	$790,020,000	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.46	$790,020,000	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.46	$790,021,962	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings