PG&E Corporation (PCG)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$13.09+1.00%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PG&E Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.80 → 1.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS of $1.64 to $1.66 in FY26	A primary condition in PG&E Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $1.64 and $1.66.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $1.64 or above $1.66 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.33 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $1.64 and $1.66. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20260.33 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 81f7bdd8-9afb-4090-9ec9-9137ef74affb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed full year 2026 non-GAAP core EPS guidance at $1.64 to $1.66 per share from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Non-GAAP core EPS grew from $0.33 in 2025-Q1 to $0.43 in 2026-Q1, supporting the guidance. The trajectory is delivering consistent with management's stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Reduce non-fuel operating and maintenance costs by 2-4%	It cut non-fuel operating costs by 2.5% in 2025 and aims for more savings.	Under Pressure	Cost reduction falls below 2% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Connect 5 additional renewable natural gas facilities by end 2027	The company expanded renewable gas facilities and has over 1 million solar customers.	Intact	Fails to connect at least 3 new facilities by end 2027	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management connected the eighth RNG facility and plans to add five more by end of 2027 to support emissions reduction. No prior quarters mention this priority, so progress is early but aligned with stated plans. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.80

$1.80 → $1.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$27.18B

$27.30B → $27.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.80	$27,300,078,640	17 / 13
2026-07-25	$1.80	$27,211,232,490	17 / 13
2026-07-26	$1.80	$27,211,232,490	17 / 13
2026-07-27	$1.81	$27,381,092,197	11 / 10
2026-07-28	$1.81	$27,223,308,780	17 / 13
2026-07-29	$1.81	$27,193,177,720	17 / 13
2026-07-30	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-01	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-02	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-03	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-04	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-05	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-06	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-07	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-08	$1.80	$27,173,044,300	17 / 13
2026-08-09	$1.80	$27,173,044,300	17 / 13
2026-08-10	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-12	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.80	$27,173,044,300	17 / 13
2026-08-14	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-15	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-16	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-17	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-18	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-19	$1.80	$27,295,797,995	11 / 10
2026-08-20	$1.80	$27,269,473,070	11 / 10
2026-08-21	$1.80	$27,269,473,070	11 / 10
2026-08-22	$1.80	$27,269,473,070	11 / 10
2026-08-23	$1.80	$27,269,473,070	11 / 10
2026-08-24	$1.80	$27,269,473,070	11 / 10
2026-08-25	$1.80	$27,269,473,070	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.80	$27,270,473,070	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$1.80	$27,270,473,070	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$1.80	$27,270,473,070	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$1.80	$27,270,473,070	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$1.80	$27,270,473,070	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$1.80	$27,270,473,070	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.80	$27,270,473,070	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.80	$27,274,040,388	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.80	$27,274,040,388	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.80	$27,207,639,462	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.80	$27,199,306,129	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-09	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-12	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-13	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-14	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-15	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-16	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-18	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-19	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-20	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-21	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-22	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-23	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-24	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-25	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-26	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-27	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-28	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-29	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-09-30	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-01	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-02	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-07	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-08	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-09	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-10	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-11	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-12	$1.80	$27,192,618,987	10 / 9
2026-10-13	$1.80	$27,192,650,005	10 / 9
2026-10-14	$1.80	$27,193,900,005	10 / 9
2026-10-15	$1.80	$27,183,968,935	10 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	4
2026-06-01	14	4
2026-07-01	14	4
2026-08-01	14	6
2026-09-01	12	9
2026-10-01	8	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 15

$20.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 12 · prior Sep 3

$18.00 → $17.00-5.6%

UBSSep 22

$14.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$11.00$22.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS of $1.64 to $1.66 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Reduce non-fuel operating and maintenance costs by 2-4%Published status: Under Pressure
Connect 5 additional renewable natural gas facilities by end 2027Qualitative condition

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PG&E Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable utility with a focus on cost discipline and renewable energy expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to guidance.

What's priced into PG&E Corporation

The market currently prices PCG as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is low fragility in the stock, indicating that the current valuation reflects a justified assessment of its fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its earnings guidance and reduce operating costs, which supports a positive fundamental trajectory. However, there is a moderate risk of missing estimates, as the company has struggled in recent quarters.

What PG&E Corporation hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, which could benefit utilities like PCG. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders and management's ability to maintain guidance will be crucial.