Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$68.86-2.01%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Patrick Industries, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.27 → 5.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	889.49M
EPS	—	0.791
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.87B
EPS	—	4.156
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	4.05B
EPS	—	5.019

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share	The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share.	Intact	Dividend cut below $0.47 per share	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS near $4.44 in 2026	The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $4.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.28 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.44 in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 6, 20261.28 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fe3fcead-8b87-4666-9578-83b2de7981f9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain disciplined cost structure and improve profit margin	Profit margin improved to 6.2% by late 2025.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 4.7% in future quarters	Operating margin: 7.4% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating margin >= 6.2% in FY25. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20267.395095 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fe3fcead-8b87-4666-9578-83b2de7981f9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating margin declined from 8.3% in 2025-Q2 to 7.4% in 2026-Q2, reflecting market challenges and merger-related costs. Adjusted operating margin also declined from 8.3% to 7.5%. Despite margin pressure, management continues to emphasize cost discipline and operational efficiency, indicating ongoing focus but limited margin improvement so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Execute strategic acquisitions and integrate businesses	A primary condition in Patrick Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Capital deployed for acquisitions >= $122 million in 2025; Pro forma combined revenue ~ $8.1 billion by Q2 2026.	Under Pressure	Capital deployed for acquisitions falls significantly below $122 million in 2025 or combined revenue fails to approach $8.1 billion by Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management completed acquisitions totaling $122 million in 2025, including two in 2025-Q4, and continues to pursue M&A aligned with strategic growth. The company remains engaged with acquisition candidates and integrates businesses to enhance product portfolio. The trajectory is delivering with ongoing M&A activity and pipeline engagement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.02

$5.73 → $5.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.05B

$4.20B → $4.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.73	$4,203,676,530	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$5.68	$4,189,542,890	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$5.73	$4,203,676,530	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$5.68	$4,189,542,890	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$5.60	$4,163,317,360	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$5.60	$4,163,332,890	10 / 10
2026-07-30	$5.60	$4,163,332,890	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$5.41	$4,107,112,290	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$5.41	$4,107,112,290	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$5.43	$4,107,279,760	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$5.43	$4,107,279,760	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$5.43	$4,107,279,760	9 / 10
2026-08-07	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$5.43	$4,107,279,760	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$5.43	$4,107,279,760	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$5.43	$4,107,279,760	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$5.40	$4,107,279,754	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$5.34	$4,098,959,755	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$5.34	$4,098,959,755	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$5.34	$4,098,959,755	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$5.34	$4,098,959,755	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$5.34	$4,098,959,755	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$5.34	$4,098,942,338	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$5.34	$4,098,942,338	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$5.34	$4,098,942,338	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$5.34	$4,098,942,338	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$5.34	$4,098,942,338	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$5.34	$4,098,942,338	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$5.34	$4,098,942,338	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$5.34	$4,098,942,338	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$5.34	$4,098,151,216	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$5.34	$4,098,151,216	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$5.34	$4,098,151,216	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$5.33	$4,093,360,307	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$5.31	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$5.31	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$5.31	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$5.31	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$5.27	$4,091,905,762	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$5.24	$4,086,369,398	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$5.23	$4,081,436,580	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$5.23	$4,081,436,580	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$5.14	$4,075,029,729	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$5.14	$4,075,029,729	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$5.14	$4,075,029,729	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$5.15	$4,066,827,284	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$5.15	$4,066,827,284	8 / 8
2026-10-16	$5.13	$4,066,829,729	8 / 8
2026-10-17	$5.13	$4,066,829,729	8 / 8
2026-10-18	$5.13	$4,066,829,729	8 / 8
2026-10-19	$5.13	$4,066,829,729	8 / 8
2026-10-20	$5.13	$4,066,829,729	8 / 8
2026-10-21	$5.13	$4,066,829,729	8 / 8
2026-10-22	$5.13	$4,066,829,729	8 / 8
2026-10-23	$5.13	$4,066,829,729	8 / 8
2026-10-24	$5.02	$4,054,066,093	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	2	1
2026-06-01	7	2	1
2026-07-01	7	2	1
2026-08-01	7	2	1
2026-09-01	8	2	1
2026-10-01	8	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 23 · prior Aug 10

$108.00 → $88.00-18.5%

$0$59.40$118.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.47 per shareRequired source inputs unavailable
Achieve EPS near $4.44 in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain disciplined cost structure and improve profit marginOperating margin: 7.4%
Execute strategic acquisitions and integrate businessesPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Patrick Industries, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PATK is an execution-focused business with added growth potential from acquisitions and its planned merger with LCI Industries. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but management execution remains neutral and risks are elevated.

What's priced into Patrick Industries, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as justified, with a durable premium of 1.3 times versus peers and only a small expectations gap. The evidence points to some premium for durability, rather than a fully stretched setup, though valuation confidence is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, and the July earnings event was positive, but PATK also missed its most recent quarter. Operating margins have narrowed, with management citing market challenges and merger-related costs, so near-term execution remains important.

What Patrick Industries, Inc. hinges on

The merger is expected to close in the first half of 2027, and its progress and eventual integration are key swing factors. A guidance cut on the next call would be a negative signal; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.