Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-15

$342.00-7.63%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Palo Alto Networks’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.87 → 4.86 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS guidance of $3.77 to $3.79 for FY 2026	A primary condition in Palo Alto Networks's published investment case. The stated target is $3.77 to $3.79 EPS.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $3.50 in FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $-0.35 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: $3.77 to $3.79 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 10, 2026-0.35 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow yield near 38.5% in FY 2026	Free cash flow remains strong near 38%.	Intact	Free cash flow yield falls below 30% in FY 2026	Free cash flow yield: 1.42% As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 20261.42 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: PANW:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 29.75% in FY 2026	Profit margins stay near 30%.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 25% in FY 2026	Operating margin: 5.04% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~29.75% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 10, 20265.043988 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4efafcd3-2afc-438f-aced-d6408b26230a. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of 22% to 23% for FY 2026	A primary condition in Palo Alto Networks's published investment case. The stated target is 22% to 23% YoY growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY 2026	Revenue growth: 34.45% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 22% to 23% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 10, 202634.447818 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.54 billion in 2025-Q4 to $3.41 billion in 2026-Q4 (+34% YoY in Q4). Fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $11.415-$11.425 billion, representing 22%-23% growth. The trajectory is delivering strong growth consistent with management's stated target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$4.86

$4.84 → $4.86 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$16.19B

$15.78B → $16.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-01	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-02	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-03	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-04	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-05	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-06	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-07	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-08	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-09	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-10	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-12	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-13	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-14	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-15	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-16	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-17	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-18	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-19	$4.84	$15,782,374,559	12 / 35
2026-08-20	$4.83	$15,803,084,855	12 / 36
2026-08-21	$4.83	$15,803,084,855	12 / 36
2026-08-22	$4.83	$15,803,084,855	12 / 36
2026-08-23	$4.83	$15,803,084,855	12 / 36
2026-08-24	$4.83	$15,803,084,855	12 / 36
2026-08-25	$4.83	$15,803,116,655	12 / 36
2026-08-26	$4.83	$15,803,111,501	12 / 36
2026-08-27	$4.83	$15,803,111,501	12 / 36
2026-08-28	$4.83	$15,803,111,501	12 / 36
2026-08-29	$4.81	$15,793,479,501	12 / 37
2026-08-30	$4.81	$15,793,479,501	12 / 37
2026-08-31	$4.81	$15,793,479,501	12 / 37
2026-09-01	$4.81	$15,793,479,500	12 / 37
2026-09-02	$4.81	$15,793,479,500	12 / 37
2026-09-03	$4.88	$16,134,960,093	13 / 33
2026-09-04	$4.88	$16,159,957,754	13 / 33
2026-09-05	$4.88	$16,159,957,754	15 / 33
2026-09-06	$4.88	$16,159,957,754	15 / 34
2026-09-07	$4.88	$16,159,957,754	15 / 34
2026-09-08	$4.87	$16,191,847,581	15 / 34
2026-09-09	$4.87	$16,191,847,406	15 / 35
2026-09-10	$4.87	$16,191,847,406	15 / 35
2026-09-11	$4.87	$16,197,424,636	15 / 35
2026-09-12	$4.87	$16,197,424,636	16 / 35
2026-09-13	$4.87	$16,197,424,636	16 / 35
2026-09-14	$4.87	$16,197,424,636	17 / 36
2026-09-15	$4.87	$16,197,415,288	17 / 36
2026-09-16	$4.87	$16,197,415,288	17 / 36
2026-09-17	$4.87	$16,204,646,739	17 / 36
2026-09-18	$4.87	$16,204,646,739	17 / 36
2026-09-19	$4.87	$16,204,646,739	17 / 36
2026-09-20	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-21	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-22	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-23	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-24	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-25	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-26	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-27	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-28	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-29	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-09-30	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-10-01	$4.87	$16,205,371,850	17 / 36
2026-10-02	$4.87	$16,205,371,846	17 / 36
2026-10-03	$4.87	$16,205,371,846	17 / 36
2026-10-04	$4.87	$16,205,371,846	17 / 36
2026-10-05	$4.87	$16,205,371,846	17 / 36
2026-10-06	$4.86	$16,191,243,933	17 / 36
2026-10-07	$4.86	$16,191,243,085	17 / 36
2026-10-08	$4.86	$16,191,243,085	17 / 36
2026-10-09	$4.86	$16,191,243,085	17 / 36
2026-10-10	$4.86	$16,191,243,085	17 / 36
2026-10-11	$4.86	$16,188,993,239	17 / 36
2026-10-12	$4.86	$16,188,993,239	17 / 36
2026-10-13	$4.86	$16,188,993,239	17 / 36
2026-10-14	$4.86	$16,188,993,239	17 / 36
2026-10-15	$4.86	$16,188,992,621	17 / 36

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	45	11	1
2026-06-01	45	10	1
2026-07-01	45	10	1
2026-08-01	45	10	2
2026-09-01	44	12	2
2026-10-01	42	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 42 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Aug 17

$475.00 → $525.00+10.5%

Cowen & Co.Oct 2

$440.00New observation · no comparable prior

BTIGSep 28 · prior Sep 2

$404.00 → $425.00+5.2%

Morgan StanleySep 21 · prior Sep 2

$394.00 → $410.00+4.1%

BernsteinSep 17 · prior Sep 2

$253.00 → $351.00+38.7%

$0$288.75$577.50

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS guidance of $3.77 to $3.79 for FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow yield near 38.5% in FY 2026Free cash flow yield: 1.42%
Operating margin near 29.75% in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth of 22% to 23% for FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Palo Alto Networks outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented investment focused on a technology company. The current thesis state reflects a strong revenue and earnings growth trajectory, although it faces some near-term risks.

What's priced into Palo Alto Networks

The market appears to be pricing in an expensive valuation compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may anticipate strong performance. However, this valuation does not fully account for the potential fragility stemming from recent performance trends.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its revenue and earnings targets for fiscal year 2026. However, there is a low probability of missing these targets, which could negatively impact sentiment given the recent trend of earnings misses.

What Palo Alto Networks hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector leaders like Microsoft and Oracle. Additionally, any downward revision in guidance could significantly impact market perception.