Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.68+1.94%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ranpak Holdings Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	118.73M
EPS	—	0.01
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	433.98M
EPS	—	-0.175
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	473.06M
EPS	—	-0.06

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve AEBITDA growth of 5.4% to 19.9% in 2026	A primary condition in Ranpak Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is AEBITDA growth between 5.4% and 19.9%.	Broken	AEBITDA growth falls below 5.4% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $18.9 million in 2026-Q1 to $19.1 million in 2026-Q2, a 15.8% year-over-year increase, within the 5.4% to 19.9% target range. Management's focus on cost discipline and margin improvement is reflected in this positive trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Return to positive free cash flow	A supporting condition in Ranpak Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow > 0.	Improving	free cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters	Free cash flow: $-3.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow > 0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-3,900,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve net revenue growth of 5.1% to 12.7% in 2026	A primary condition in Ranpak Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is net revenue between $415M and $445M.	Broken	net revenue falls below $415M in FY26	Revenue: $105.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net revenue between $415M and $445M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026105,200,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0e7bbf66-cbfc-4fe8-a2b8-49cddfa1f25f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net revenue grew from $91.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $105.2 million in 2026-Q2, a 14.0% year-over-year increase, driven by Automation revenue growth of 139.4% in 2026-Q2. Management's trajectory is delivering with revenue growth exceeding the stated 5.1% to 12.7% target range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	1
2026-06-01	2	1
2026-07-01	2	1
2026-08-01	2	1
2026-09-01	2	1
2026-10-01	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve AEBITDA growth of 5.4% to 19.9% in 2026Published status: Broken
Return to positive free cash flowFree cash flow: $-3.9M
Achieve net revenue growth of 5.1% to 12.7% in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ranpak Holdings Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PACK is a high-risk growth story, with Automation driving rapid revenue gains while the company remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is on watch: management priorities are on track, but recent financial performance remains weak and below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Ranpak Holdings Corp.

The valuation evidence describes PACK as expensive versus peers, with a modest expectations gap. The priced-in fragility assessment is low because expensive valuation is not paired with the full stack of weak performance and turbulence; the evidence does not show that the market is assuming a specific earnings outcome.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA priorities are on track, and second-quarter revenue growth was driven in part by Automation. The company remains loss-making, recent results have been weak, and the record includes an earnings miss followed by an in-line result. Risk is high, with smaller-company status and a run of earnings misses noted as concerns.

What Ranpak Holdings Corp. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth while progressing toward its Automation revenue goal. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.