Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$62.38+2.82%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Occidental Petroleum’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+13.2% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.02 → 4.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Advance debt reduction and manage capital prudently	A supporting condition in Occidental Petroleum's published investment case. The stated target is continue progress on debt repayment and limit capital spending.	Improving	capital spending exceeds $2 billion without debt reduction progress	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Principal debt reduced from $20.8 billion in 2025-Q3 to $11.8 billion in 2026-Q2, including $7.1 billion repaid through May 2026. Management has consistently emphasized advancing debt reduction toward the $10 billion milestone, and the financial data shows delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Reduce principal debt toward $10 billion target	Occidental is cutting its debt, repaying $7.1 billion so far.	Intact	principal debt remains above $13.3 billion by end 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Principal debt reduced from $20.8 billion in 2025-Q3 to $11.8 billion in 2026-Q2, including $7.1 billion repaid through May 2026. Management has consistently emphasized advancing debt reduction toward the $10 billion milestone, and the financial data shows delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain EPS near or above $1.06 in Q2 2026	It beat earnings with $1.06 EPS in Q1 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $0.31 in Q4 2026	Diluted EPS: $2.75 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.06. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20262.75 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 71b8e962-4a2e-452c-8010-736c95cea54c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Principal debt reduced from $20.8 billion in 2025-Q3 to $11.8 billion in 2026-Q2, including $7.1 billion repaid through May 2026. Management has consistently emphasized advancing debt reduction toward the $10 billion milestone, and the financial data shows delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve revenue growth near 11% in next 12 months	A supporting condition in Occidental Petroleum's published investment case. The stated target is revenue growth >= 11% YoY.	Improving	revenue growth falls below 7% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.55

$3.94 → $4.55 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$24.88B

$23.85B → $24.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.94	$23,847,463,170	20 / 9
2026-07-25	$3.73	$23,887,566,125	13 / 8
2026-07-26	$3.96	$23,847,463,170	21 / 9
2026-07-27	$3.96	$23,847,463,170	21 / 9
2026-07-28	$3.96	$23,847,463,170	21 / 9
2026-07-29	$3.93	$23,845,040,660	22 / 10
2026-07-30	$3.78	$23,774,334,366	12 / 7
2026-07-31	$3.74	$23,777,594,607	12 / 7
2026-08-01	$3.74	$23,777,594,607	12 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.74	$23,777,594,607	12 / 7
2026-08-03	$3.93	$23,469,674,510	22 / 7
2026-08-04	$3.93	$23,469,674,510	22 / 7
2026-08-05	$3.91	$23,694,340,190	22 / 8
2026-08-06	$3.91	$23,694,311,440	22 / 8
2026-08-07	$3.67	$23,682,002,673	13 / 6
2026-08-08	$3.93	$23,860,401,650	21 / 9
2026-08-09	$3.67	$23,682,002,673	13 / 6
2026-08-10	$3.93	$23,860,401,650	21 / 9
2026-08-12	$3.94	$24,183,474,470	21 / 11
2026-08-13	$3.67	$23,682,002,673	13 / 6
2026-08-14	$3.67	$23,682,002,673	13 / 6
2026-08-15	$3.67	$23,682,002,673	13 / 6
2026-08-16	$3.67	$23,682,002,673	12 / 7
2026-08-17	$3.67	$23,682,002,673	12 / 7
2026-08-18	$3.67	$23,682,002,673	12 / 7
2026-08-19	$3.67	$23,682,002,673	12 / 8
2026-08-20	$3.83	$23,816,757,961	13 / 9
2026-08-21	$3.83	$23,816,757,961	13 / 9
2026-08-22	$3.83	$23,816,757,961	13 / 9
2026-08-23	$3.82	$23,816,757,961	13 / 9
2026-08-24	$3.82	$23,816,757,961	13 / 9
2026-08-25	$3.85	$23,823,624,628	13 / 9
2026-08-26	$3.85	$23,850,410,344	13 / 9
2026-08-27	$3.85	$23,850,410,344	13 / 9
2026-08-28	$3.85	$23,850,410,344	13 / 9
2026-08-29	$3.85	$23,850,410,344	13 / 9
2026-08-30	$3.85	$23,850,410,344	13 / 9
2026-08-31	$3.85	$23,850,410,344	13 / 9
2026-09-01	$3.85	$23,850,410,344	13 / 9
2026-09-02	$3.85	$23,850,410,344	13 / 9
2026-09-03	$3.85	$23,850,410,344	13 / 9
2026-09-04	$3.85	$23,888,965,948	13 / 9
2026-09-05	$3.85	$23,888,965,948	13 / 9
2026-09-06	$3.85	$23,888,965,948	14 / 10
2026-09-07	$3.85	$23,888,965,948	14 / 10
2026-09-08	$3.86	$23,888,965,948	14 / 10
2026-09-09	$3.88	$23,888,965,948	14 / 10
2026-09-10	$3.90	$23,888,965,948	14 / 10
2026-09-11	$3.94	$23,948,948,448	14 / 10
2026-09-12	$4.00	$24,103,823,448	14 / 10
2026-09-13	$4.00	$24,103,823,448	14 / 10
2026-09-14	$4.00	$24,103,823,448	14 / 10
2026-09-15	$4.02	$24,078,823,448	14 / 10
2026-09-16	$4.02	$24,078,823,448	14 / 11
2026-09-17	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 11
2026-09-18	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 11
2026-09-19	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 11
2026-09-20	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 11
2026-09-21	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 11
2026-09-22	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 11
2026-09-23	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	15 / 10
2026-09-24	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 10
2026-09-25	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 10
2026-09-26	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 10
2026-09-27	$4.02	$24,078,810,948	14 / 10
2026-09-28	$4.03	$24,078,810,948	14 / 10
2026-09-29	$4.03	$24,078,810,948	14 / 10
2026-09-30	$4.03	$24,078,810,948	14 / 10
2026-10-01	$4.03	$24,078,810,948	14 / 10
2026-10-02	$4.08	$24,203,417,573	14 / 10
2026-10-03	$4.08	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-04	$4.13	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-05	$4.13	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-06	$4.13	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-07	$4.13	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-08	$4.13	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-09	$4.13	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-10	$4.13	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-11	$4.13	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-12	$4.13	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-13	$4.14	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-14	$4.14	$24,237,663,010	14 / 10
2026-10-15	$4.55	$24,880,847,072	14 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	16	3
2026-06-01	8	15	2
2026-07-01	9	14	2
2026-08-01	9	15	1
2026-09-01	10	16	0
2026-10-01	11	16	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 15 · prior Aug 10

$63.00 → $64.00+1.6%

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Aug 7

$69.00 → $71.00+2.9%

UBSOct 14 · prior Sep 14

$67.00 → $73.00+9.0%

ScotiabankOct 14

$63.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalOct 14

$68.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 1 · prior May 20

$64.00 → $69.00+7.8%

$0$40.15$80.30

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Advance debt reduction and manage capital prudentlyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce principal debt toward $10 billion targetDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain EPS near or above $1.06 in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve revenue growth near 11% in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Occidental Petroleum outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a cyclical play in the energy sector, which is currently experiencing some favorable conditions. The thesis is in a watch state due to mixed recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into Occidental Petroleum

The market currently prices OXY as cheap compared to its peers, indicating a low expectations gap. However, the valuation reflects concerns about execution quality and the turbulent sector environment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may improve if management continues to advance debt reduction and free cash flow growth. However, recent financial performance has been weak, which could pose risks in the near term.

What Occidental Petroleum hinges on

The outlook hinges on inflation trends, guidance updates from management, and performance from sector leaders like COP and EOG. Any negative guidance from OXY could significantly impact sentiment.