Otis Worldwide (OTIS)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$71.33+1.32%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Otis Worldwide’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.54 → 4.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $4.22 per share in fiscal 2026	Profit margins stay stable with EPS around $4.22 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $4.0 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.12 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.22 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20261.12 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b6c5f3df-1174-4678-a0a6-156d5cd5026a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow near $1.62 billion in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow is solid near $1.62 billion.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $223M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.62 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 2026223,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.35B in 2025-Q1 to $3.86B in 2026-Q2 quarter, with full year 2026 guidance at $15.1 to $15.3 billion, up from $14.5-$14.6 billion in 2025-Q4. Management consistently emphasizes net sales growth driven by Service segment, delivering on this trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Successful adoption of Otis Link MOD escalator upgrades	New product upgrades could boost future sales growth.	Intact	no meaningful sales growth from Otis Link MOD upgrades within 12 months	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net sales to $15.1-$15.3 billion in fiscal 2026	Otis grows sales about 6% a year to $15.1-$15.3 billion in 2026.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $15.1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $3.859B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$15.2 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20263,859,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b6c5f3df-1174-4678-a0a6-156d5cd5026a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.35B in 2025-Q1 to $3.86B in 2026-Q2 quarter, with full year 2026 guidance at $15.1 to $15.3 billion, up from $14.5-$14.6 billion in 2025-Q4. Management consistently emphasizes net sales growth driven by Service segment, delivering on this trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.52

$4.66 → $4.52 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$16.02B

$15.94B → $16.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.66	$15,938,871,730	8 / 10
2026-07-25	$4.66	$15,938,871,730	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$4.66	$15,929,142,040	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$4.66	$15,929,142,040	14 / 13
2026-07-28	$4.66	$15,929,142,040	14 / 13
2026-07-29	$4.61	$15,939,979,490	14 / 13
2026-07-30	$4.62	$15,961,050,898	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$4.62	$15,961,050,898	9 / 10
2026-08-01	$4.62	$15,961,050,898	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$4.61	$15,939,979,490	14 / 13
2026-08-03	$4.61	$15,939,979,490	14 / 13
2026-08-04	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$4.61	$15,939,979,490	14 / 13
2026-08-07	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$4.61	$15,939,979,490	14 / 13
2026-08-09	$4.61	$15,939,979,490	14 / 13
2026-08-10	$4.61	$15,939,979,490	14 / 13
2026-08-12	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-14	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$4.61	$15,960,055,140	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$4.57	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$4.57	$15,988,163,653	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$4.57	$15,988,163,653	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$4.56	$15,988,163,653	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$4.54	$16,010,600,862	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$4.54	$16,010,630,412	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$4.54	$16,010,630,412	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$4.54	$16,010,630,412	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$4.54	$16,010,630,412	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$4.54	$16,010,630,412	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$4.54	$16,010,630,412	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$4.54	$16,010,630,412	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$4.54	$16,010,302,402	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$4.54	$16,010,302,402	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$4.54	$16,010,302,402	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$4.54	$16,010,302,402	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$4.54	$16,010,385,735	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$4.54	$16,010,385,735	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$4.54	$16,010,385,735	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$4.54	$16,010,385,735	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$4.53	$16,018,135,735	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$4.53	$16,018,135,735	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$4.53	$16,018,135,735	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$4.53	$16,018,135,735	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$4.53	$16,018,135,735	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$4.53	$16,018,135,735	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$4.53	$16,020,356,063	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$4.53	$16,020,356,063	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$4.53	$16,020,356,063	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$4.53	$16,020,356,063	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$4.52	$16,034,075,091	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$4.52	$16,034,075,091	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$4.52	$16,034,075,091	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$4.52	$16,034,054,284	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$4.52	$16,034,054,284	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$4.52	$16,034,054,284	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$4.52	$16,034,054,284	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$4.52	$16,031,438,899	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$4.52	$16,031,438,899	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$4.52	$16,031,438,899	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$4.52	$16,031,438,899	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$4.52	$16,024,592,745	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$4.52	$16,024,592,745	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$4.52	$16,024,592,745	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$4.52	$16,024,592,745	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$4.52	$16,024,600,437	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	9	1
2026-06-01	7	8	1
2026-07-01	7	7	0
2026-08-01	7	7	0
2026-09-01	7	7	1
2026-10-01	7	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoSep 24

$77.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$42.35$84.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $4.22 per share in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow near $1.62 billion in fiscal 2026Free cash flow: $223M
Successful adoption of Otis Link MOD escalator upgradesQualitative condition
Increase net sales to $15.1-$15.3 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $3.859B

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Otis Worldwide outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth in sales and earnings. The current thesis state is intact, despite a recent shift in confidence from high to medium due to external pressures.

What's priced into Otis Worldwide

The market appears to price OTIS as a cheap option compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully account for the potential risks and challenges ahead.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its sales and earnings targets, with recent financial performance remaining strong within its industry. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for missed guidance, which could impact investor sentiment.

What Otis Worldwide hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and OTIS's ability to maintain its guidance. If leading companies in the industrial sector perform well, it could support OTIS's growth; conversely, any negative shifts could pose risks.