OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.86-1.77%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	252.85M
EPS	—	0.27
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.03B
EPS	—	1.137
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.12B
EPS	—	1.29

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $129 to $139 million	Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA near $134 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $129 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase quarterly revenue to $257-$262 million in 2026-Q2	A supporting condition in OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's published investment case. The stated target is $257 to $262 million.	Intact	Q2 2026 revenue falls below $257 million	Revenue: $261.246M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $257 to $262 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 30, 2026261,246,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 638387d4-3c43-4273-87b7-413619c739ca. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve FY 2026 revenue of $1.014 to $1.034 billion	A primary condition in OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.024 billion.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $1.014 billion in FY26	Revenue: $261.246M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.024 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026261,246,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 638387d4-3c43-4273-87b7-413619c739ca. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.30 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.12B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.30	$1,119,458,000	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.30	$1,119,458,000	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.30	$1,119,458,000	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$1.30	$1,119,458,000	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$1.30	$1,119,458,000	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$1.30	$1,119,458,000	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$1.30	$1,119,458,000	6 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$1.30	$1,123,989,170	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$1.30	$1,123,989,170	6 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	$1.30	$1,123,989,170	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$1.30	$1,123,989,170	6 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	0	0
2026-06-01	6	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	6	0	0
2026-09-01	6	0	0
2026-10-01	6	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $129 to $139 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Increase quarterly revenue to $257-$262 million in 2026-Q2Revenue: $261.246M
Achieve FY 2026 revenue of $1.014 to $1.034 billionRevenue: $261.246M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OSW is a growth-oriented business with a durable premium valuation, rather than a turnaround or deep-value case. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent signals have improved, though earnings quality and recent performance remain neutral.

What's priced into OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited

OSW is valued at a sizable premium to peers, and the evidence describes expectations as stretched. The market appears to assume continued growth and some durability in that premium, but the expectations gap is moderate and the evidence does not suggest the full combination of weak execution and high turbulence is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, management is guiding to fiscal 2026 revenue growth of about 7% to 8%, with quarterly revenue rising from the first to the second quarter and a further increase guided for the third. Revenue goals are on track, while the EBITDA goal is mixed; recent earnings included a miss, a beat, and an in-line report, so execution is not uniformly strong.

What OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on delivering the fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals without reversing recently raised guidance, which would hurt management credibility. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strength from bellwethers could support the business backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.