O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$89.27+0.87%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge O’Reilly Automotive’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.66 → 3.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 20 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Control capital expenditures within $1.3B to $1.4B in FY26	A supporting condition in O’Reilly Automotive's published investment case. The stated target is $1.3B to $1.4B.	Under Pressure	Capital expenditures exceed $1.5 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $307.603M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.3B to $1.4B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026307,603,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow near $1.85 billion in FY26	Free cash flow is solid at about $1.85 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $698.896M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.85B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026698,896,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating margin near 19.55% in FY26	A primary condition in O’Reilly Automotive's published investment case. The stated target is ~19.55%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 18.5% in FY26	Operating margin: 20.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~19.55%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202620.15011 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 15200318-fa53-44a4-9384-09df182dfe93. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue near $18.85 billion in FY26	A primary condition in O’Reilly Automotive's published investment case. The stated target is ~$18.85B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $17.7 billion in FY26	Revenue: $4.892B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$18.85B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20264,892,013,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 15200318-fa53-44a4-9384-09df182dfe93. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.66

$3.62 → $3.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$20.30B

$20.23B → $20.30B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.62	$20,233,476,031	18 / 19
2026-07-25	$3.62	$20,233,476,031	18 / 19
2026-07-26	$3.62	$20,233,776,130	20 / 25
2026-07-27	$3.62	$20,235,140,130	20 / 25
2026-07-28	$3.62	$20,235,140,130	20 / 25
2026-07-29	$3.62	$20,230,574,791	18 / 19
2026-07-30	$3.62	$20,226,398,791	18 / 19
2026-07-31	$3.63	$20,236,536,200	21 / 25
2026-08-01	$3.64	$20,252,389,863	18 / 19
2026-08-02	$3.65	$20,276,361,830	22 / 25
2026-08-03	$3.65	$20,276,361,830	22 / 25
2026-08-04	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	18 / 19
2026-08-05	$3.65	$20,276,361,830	22 / 25
2026-08-06	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	18 / 19
2026-08-07	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	18 / 19
2026-08-08	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	18 / 19
2026-08-09	$3.65	$20,276,374,930	22 / 25
2026-08-10	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	18 / 19
2026-08-12	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	18 / 19
2026-08-13	$3.65	$20,276,374,930	22 / 25
2026-08-14	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	18 / 19
2026-08-15	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	18 / 19
2026-08-16	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	19 / 19
2026-08-17	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	19 / 19
2026-08-18	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	19 / 19
2026-08-19	$3.65	$20,252,370,665	19 / 19
2026-08-20	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-21	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-22	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-23	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-24	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-25	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-26	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-27	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-28	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-29	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-30	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-08-31	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-09-01	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-09-02	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-09-03	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-09-04	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-09-05	$3.66	$20,263,860,214	19 / 19
2026-09-06	$3.66	$20,263,860,580	19 / 19
2026-09-07	$3.66	$20,263,860,580	19 / 19
2026-09-08	$3.66	$20,263,860,580	19 / 19
2026-09-09	$3.66	$20,263,860,580	19 / 19
2026-09-10	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-11	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-12	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-13	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-14	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-15	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-16	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-17	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-18	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-19	$3.66	$20,281,867,643	19 / 19
2026-09-20	$3.66	$20,283,527,175	19 / 19
2026-09-21	$3.66	$20,283,527,175	19 / 19
2026-09-22	$3.66	$20,283,527,175	19 / 19
2026-09-23	$3.66	$20,283,527,175	19 / 19
2026-09-24	$3.66	$20,283,527,175	19 / 19
2026-09-25	$3.66	$20,283,527,175	19 / 19
2026-09-26	$3.66	$20,283,527,175	19 / 19
2026-09-27	$3.66	$20,283,527,175	19 / 19
2026-09-28	$3.66	$20,283,527,175	19 / 19
2026-09-29	$3.66	$20,287,006,899	19 / 19
2026-09-30	$3.66	$20,287,006,899	20 / 20
2026-10-01	$3.66	$20,288,968,437	20 / 20
2026-10-02	$3.66	$20,288,968,437	20 / 20
2026-10-03	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-04	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-05	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-06	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-07	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-08	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-09	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-10	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-11	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-12	$3.66	$20,288,972,283	20 / 20
2026-10-13	$3.66	$20,296,442,608	20 / 20
2026-10-14	$3.66	$20,296,457,955	20 / 20
2026-10-15	$3.66	$20,300,025,166	20 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	22	4	1
2026-06-01	22	5	1
2026-07-01	23	5	0
2026-08-01	23	5	0
2026-09-01	23	6	0
2026-10-01	23	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinSep 29

$94.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$51.70$103.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Control capital expenditures within $1.3B to $1.4B in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Generate free cash flow near $1.85 billion in FY26Free cash flow: $698.896M
Maintain operating margin near 19.55% in FY26Operating margin: 20.15%
Achieve revenue near $18.85 billion in FY26Revenue: $4.892B

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

O’Reilly Automotive outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through store expansion and comparable sales. The current thesis state is intact, but the company faces challenges in execution and sector performance.

What's priced into O’Reilly Automotive

The market currently prices ORLY at an expensive valuation compared to peers, reflecting a justified premium. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully believe in the company's ability to meet its growth targets.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management focused on maintaining sales growth and disciplined capital expenditures. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent misses in earnings expectations.

What O’Reilly Automotive hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to deliver on growth targets and the overall performance of the Consumer Discretionary sector. Key factors include guidance updates and inflation trends that could impact consumer spending.