Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OLMA)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.41-8.69%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.56M
EPS	—	-0.665
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.25M
EPS	—	-2.395
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	8.19M
EPS	—	-2.663

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities above $500 million	It maintains cash above $500 million.	Intact	Cash position falls below $500 million	Cash and cash equivalents: $48.599M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain cash position >$500 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source date unavailable48,599,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_balance_sheet. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Lease agreement for 38,176 square feet of office space	The company secured a lease for 38,176 square feet of office space.	Intact	Lease agreement is terminated or office expansion delayed beyond FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Bayer	Olema partners with Bayer in a clinical trial collaboration.	Intact	Partnership dissolves or no clinical progress reported within 12 months	Active collaboration confirmed (May 2026) 8-K filed May 26, 2026, confirms new clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Bayer Consumer Care AG. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-2.66

$-2.40 → $-2.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.01B

$0.02B → $0.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$-2.48	$23,122,680	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$-2.48	$23,122,680	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$-2.48	$23,122,680	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$-2.48	$23,122,680	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$-2.48	$23,122,680	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$-2.48	$23,122,680	9 / 10
2026-08-07	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$-2.48	$23,122,680	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$-2.48	$23,122,680	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$-2.60	$18,303,860	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$-2.60	$18,303,860	9 / 8
2026-08-14	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$-2.40	$23,122,684	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$-2.66	$11,207,165	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$-2.66	$11,207,165	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$-2.66	$11,207,165	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$-2.66	$11,207,165	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$-2.66	$11,207,165	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$-2.66	$11,207,165	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$-2.66	$11,207,165	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$-2.66	$11,207,165	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-26	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-27	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$-2.66	$8,187,661	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	1
2026-06-01	12	1
2026-07-01	11	1
2026-08-01	11	1
2026-09-01	11	1
2026-10-01	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities above $500 millionCash and cash equivalents: $48.599M
Lease agreement for 38,176 square feet of office spaceQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-82.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is advancing several trials, but recent performance is weak and the evidence snapshot has low confidence.

What's priced into Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

The evidence does not provide a valuation measure or a clear account of market expectations, so whether OLMA is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Recent financial weakness and an earnings miss are known concerns, while the snapshot does not show what expectations investors already assume about trial outcomes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, losses are likely to remain elevated as clinical development spending continues, consistent with management’s stated priorities. Management is advancing Phase 3 palazestrant trials and early-stage OP-3136 work, but progress is mixed, and a high industry miss rate makes the next financial update a risk to watch.

What Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, a key test is whether OPERA-01 reports top-line data in fall 2026 and whether enrollment in OPERA-02 continues. The multi-year view also depends on the clinical progress of OP-3136, including its new Bayer collaboration, and on broader healthcare-sector momentum; weaker employment data or disappointing results from sector bellwethers could remove that tailwind.