Universal Display (OLED)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$86.98-0.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Universal Display’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.71 → 4.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	173.2M
EPS	—	1.22
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	630.26M
EPS	—	4.187
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	675.97M
EPS	—	4.669

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase dividend per share to $0.50 in Q1 2026	The company raised its dividend to $0.50 per share in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.50 in Q1 2026	Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.50 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f843b6f4-78b4-4a03-95f7-f3d6ece36217. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating income above $42.75 million in Q1 2026	A primary condition in Universal Display's published investment case. The stated target is >= $42.75 million.	Broken	Operating income falls below $42.75 million in Q1 2026	Operating income: $53.648M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $42.75 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202653,648,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f843b6f4-78b4-4a03-95f7-f3d6ece36217. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue near $650 million in FY 2026	A primary condition in Universal Display's published investment case. The stated target is ~$650 million.	Broken	Revenue falls below $630 million in FY 2026	Revenue: $152.157M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$650 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026152,157,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f843b6f4-78b4-4a03-95f7-f3d6ece36217. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue declined from $171.8M in 2025-Q2 to $152.2M in 2026-Q2 (-11.3%), and full year 2025 revenue was $650.6M with 2026 guidance lowered to $630M-$670M. Management emphasizes growth opportunities despite near-term softness, indicating limited progress but ongoing focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.67

$4.96 → $4.67 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.68B

$0.70B → $0.68B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.96	$696,805,240	7 / 9
2026-07-25	$4.96	$696,805,240	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$4.96	$696,805,240	7 / 9
2026-07-27	$4.96	$696,805,240	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$4.91	$696,205,892	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$4.96	$696,805,240	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$4.96	$696,805,240	7 / 9
2026-07-31	$4.85	$692,248,017	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$4.85	$692,248,017	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$4.79	$682,995,360	7 / 9
2026-08-03	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$4.79	$682,995,360	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$4.79	$682,995,360	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$4.79	$682,995,360	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$4.79	$682,995,360	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$4.79	$682,995,360	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$4.79	$682,995,360	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$4.75	$680,669,780	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$4.71	$679,051,178	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$4.67	$675,970,757	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	3	0
2026-06-01	6	3	0
2026-07-01	6	3	0
2026-08-01	6	3	0
2026-09-01	6	3	0
2026-10-01	6	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase dividend per share to $0.50 in Q1 2026Dividend per share: $0.50 per share
Improve operating income above $42.75 million in Q1 2026Published status: Broken
Sustain revenue near $650 million in FY 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Universal Display outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a business with recent strong financial performance but fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and a mixed signal. The long-term thesis is intact, though revenue growth and operating income have not kept pace with management’s stated priorities.

What's priced into Universal Display

OLED is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative and the valuation model has medium confidence. The evidence labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, so it does not point to the market fully pricing in a severe execution problem.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and operating income face pressure: second-quarter revenue and operating income were below their year-earlier levels, and 2026 revenue guidance was lowered. Management has delivered on capital returns, including higher dividends and ongoing repurchases, but the evidence shows mixed progress on growth and cost discipline.

What Universal Display hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management restoring revenue growth and stabilizing operating income after recent declines. Near-term evidence that could change the picture includes a guidance increase after the prior reduction, easier interest rates, and continued strength from sector bellwethers.