Okta, Inc. (OKTA)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$213.05+5.82%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Okta, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.34 → 4.34 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 24 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	815.97M
EPS	—	0.934
Free cash flow	$175M–$185Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.22B
EPS	—	3.928
Free cash flow	$910M–$930Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.54B
EPS	—	4.345

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $870 million	Free cash flow rises near $870 million.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $800 million next year	Free cash flow: $233M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $870 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 2026233,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP operating margin near 25.5%	A primary condition in Okta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~25.5%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 22% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of about 9% to 10% year-over-year	A primary condition in Okta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 9% next year	Revenue growth: 10.58% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 202610.576923 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d5f32a5-268d-4dd1-904e-283bc54cfc96. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $688M in 2026-Q1 to $805M in 2026-Q3, an 11% year-over-year increase each quarter. Management consistently emphasizes growth driven by core identity solutions and new products, and the financials show delivering growth in line with these statements. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$4.34

$4.26 → $4.34 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$3.54B

$3.50B → $3.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.26	$3,502,593,069	24 / 33
2026-07-25	$4.26	$3,502,593,069	24 / 33
2026-07-26	$4.26	$3,502,603,649	24 / 32
2026-07-27	$4.26	$3,502,603,649	24 / 32
2026-07-28	$4.26	$3,502,603,649	24 / 32
2026-07-29	$4.26	$3,502,603,648	24 / 32
2026-07-30	$4.26	$3,502,603,648	24 / 32
2026-07-31	$4.26	$3,502,603,651	24 / 32
2026-08-01	$4.26	$3,502,603,651	24 / 32
2026-08-02	$4.26	$3,502,603,651	24 / 32
2026-08-03	$4.26	$3,502,603,651	24 / 32
2026-08-04	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-05	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-06	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-07	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-08	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-09	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-10	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-12	$4.28	$3,504,869,110	44 / 43
2026-08-13	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-14	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-15	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-16	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-17	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-18	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-19	$4.26	$3,502,603,652	24 / 32
2026-08-20	$4.27	$3,503,196,882	24 / 32
2026-08-21	$4.27	$3,503,094,074	24 / 32
2026-08-22	$4.27	$3,503,088,613	24 / 32
2026-08-23	$4.27	$3,503,088,613	24 / 32
2026-08-24	$4.27	$3,503,088,613	24 / 32
2026-08-25	$4.27	$3,502,997,670	24 / 32
2026-08-26	$4.27	$3,502,997,670	24 / 32
2026-08-27	$4.27	$3,502,997,670	24 / 32
2026-08-28	$4.27	$3,502,997,670	24 / 32
2026-08-29	$4.34	$3,542,725,780	24 / 32
2026-08-30	$4.34	$3,542,725,780	24 / 32
2026-08-31	$4.34	$3,542,725,780	24 / 32
2026-09-01	$4.34	$3,542,725,780	24 / 32
2026-09-02	$4.34	$3,542,725,780	24 / 31
2026-09-03	$4.34	$3,542,513,621	24 / 31
2026-09-04	$4.34	$3,542,513,621	24 / 31
2026-09-05	$4.34	$3,542,600,780	24 / 31
2026-09-06	$4.34	$3,542,600,780	24 / 31
2026-09-07	$4.34	$3,544,003,364	24 / 31
2026-09-08	$4.34	$3,544,003,364	24 / 31
2026-09-09	$4.34	$3,544,002,449	24 / 31
2026-09-10	$4.34	$3,544,002,449	24 / 31
2026-09-11	$4.34	$3,544,002,449	24 / 31
2026-09-12	$4.34	$3,544,002,449	24 / 31
2026-09-13	$4.34	$3,544,002,449	24 / 31
2026-09-14	$4.34	$3,544,002,449	24 / 31
2026-09-15	$4.34	$3,544,021,321	24 / 31
2026-09-16	$4.34	$3,544,012,708	24 / 31
2026-09-17	$4.34	$3,544,012,708	24 / 31
2026-09-18	$4.34	$3,544,012,708	24 / 31
2026-09-19	$4.34	$3,544,012,708	24 / 31
2026-09-20	$4.34	$3,544,013,470	24 / 31
2026-09-21	$4.34	$3,544,013,470	24 / 31
2026-09-22	$4.34	$3,543,994,606	24 / 31
2026-09-23	$4.34	$3,543,994,606	24 / 31
2026-09-24	$4.34	$3,544,000,136	24 / 31
2026-09-25	$4.34	$3,544,000,162	24 / 31
2026-09-26	$4.34	$3,544,092,470	24 / 31
2026-09-27	$4.34	$3,544,092,470	24 / 31
2026-09-28	$4.34	$3,544,092,470	24 / 31
2026-09-29	$4.34	$3,544,101,082	24 / 31
2026-09-30	$4.34	$3,544,101,082	24 / 31
2026-10-01	$4.35	$3,544,101,082	24 / 31
2026-10-02	$4.35	$3,544,101,085	24 / 31
2026-10-03	$4.35	$3,544,101,085	24 / 31
2026-10-04	$4.35	$3,544,101,085	24 / 31
2026-10-05	$4.35	$3,544,101,085	24 / 31
2026-10-06	$4.35	$3,544,092,472	24 / 31
2026-10-07	$4.35	$3,544,092,472	24 / 31
2026-10-08	$4.35	$3,544,092,472	24 / 31
2026-10-09	$4.35	$3,544,092,472	24 / 31
2026-10-10	$4.35	$3,544,092,472	24 / 31
2026-10-11	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-12	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-13	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-14	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-15	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-16	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-17	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-18	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-19	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-20	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-21	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-22	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-23	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31
2026-10-24	$4.34	$3,543,815,160	24 / 31

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	35	11	1
2026-06-01	35	12	1
2026-07-01	33	12	1
2026-08-01	36	10	1
2026-09-01	35	10	0
2026-10-01	34	10	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 34 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades10 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 9 · prior Sep 25

$230.00 → $245.00+6.5%

ScotiabankSep 28 · prior Aug 27

$190.00 → $245.00+28.9%

StephensSep 25

$240.00New observation · no comparable prior

Robert W. BairdSep 25 · prior Sep 22

$200.00 → $235.00+17.5%

$0$134.75$269.50

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $870 millionFree cash flow: $233M
Non-GAAP operating margin near 25.5%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth of about 9% to 10% year-over-yearRevenue growth: 10.58%

Next proof point

Dec 1, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Okta, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented software business with improving profitability, rather than a proven durable compounder, since it remains loss-making on a GAAP basis. The multi-year view is intact, though the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Okta, Inc.

OKTA is valued at a sizable premium to peers, and the evidence points to expectations above what current fundamentals alone justify. The valuation model has low confidence, so the size of that gap is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show solid execution: revenue grew 11% year over year in each of the reported quarters, while GAAP operating income and margins improved. Management is on track with stated priorities for growth, operating performance, and cash flow, though a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; recent miss risk is rated low.

What Okta, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued revenue growth and further progress in operating performance without a guidance cut. Broader technology conditions, including interest-rate changes and results from sector bellwethers, are additional swing factors.