Oklo, Inc. (OKLO)

NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$26.35-2.44%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Oklo, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.16M
EPS	—	-0.283
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.59M
EPS	—	-0.995
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	12.03M
EPS	—	-1.106

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash flow from operations	The company is improving cash flow, with cash used in operations down to $17.9 million in 2026-Q1.	Broken	Cash used in operations remains below -$10 million over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $-47.592M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash used in operations improves to > -$10 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-47,592,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Control and reduce net income losses	Oklo is working to reduce its operating losses, which were $51.2 million in 2026-Q1.	Broken	Net loss remains below -$20 million over next 4 quarters	Net income: $-48.536M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net loss improves to > -$20 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-48,536,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e3cff8e3-58c6-417c-83a7-2d8c1596893c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce operating losses toward break-even	Oklo is working to reduce its operating losses, which were $51.2 million in 2026-Q1.	Broken	Operating income remains below -$30 million over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-73.19M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves to > -$30 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-73,190,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e3cff8e3-58c6-417c-83a7-2d8c1596893c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.11

$-0.83 → $-1.11 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.01B

$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.83	$8,102,786	15 / 11
2026-07-25	$-0.83	$8,102,786	15 / 11
2026-07-26	$-0.84	$8,102,776	15 / 11
2026-07-27	$-0.83	$5,706,220	19 / 17
2026-07-28	$-0.83	$5,706,220	19 / 17
2026-07-29	$-0.83	$8,320,976	15 / 11
2026-07-30	$-0.83	$5,706,220	19 / 17
2026-07-31	$-0.83	$8,320,976	15 / 11
2026-08-01	$-0.83	$8,320,976	15 / 11
2026-08-02	$-0.83	$5,706,220	19 / 17
2026-08-03	$-0.83	$5,706,220	19 / 17
2026-08-04	$-0.83	$8,320,976	15 / 11
2026-08-05	$-0.83	$8,320,976	15 / 11
2026-08-06	$-0.83	$5,706,220	19 / 17
2026-08-07	$-0.84	$8,616,817	15 / 11
2026-08-08	$-0.83	$5,706,220	19 / 17
2026-08-09	$-0.87	$7,167,770	19 / 16
2026-08-10	$-0.87	$7,167,770	19 / 16
2026-08-12	$-0.84	$8,616,817	15 / 11
2026-08-13	$-0.84	$8,616,817	15 / 11
2026-08-14	$-0.84	$8,616,817	15 / 11
2026-08-15	$-0.84	$8,616,817	15 / 11
2026-08-16	$-0.84	$8,616,817	15 / 11
2026-08-17	$-0.84	$8,616,817	15 / 11
2026-08-18	$-0.84	$8,616,817	15 / 11
2026-08-19	$-0.84	$8,616,817	15 / 11
2026-08-20	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-21	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-22	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-23	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-24	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-25	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-26	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-27	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-28	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-29	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-30	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-08-31	$-1.01	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-09-01	$-1.03	$10,497,930	15 / 12
2026-09-02	$-1.03	$10,497,930	15 / 12
2026-09-03	$-1.03	$10,497,930	15 / 12
2026-09-04	$-1.03	$10,497,930	15 / 12
2026-09-05	$-1.03	$10,497,930	15 / 12
2026-09-06	$-1.03	$10,497,930	15 / 12
2026-09-07	$-1.03	$10,497,930	15 / 12
2026-09-08	$-1.03	$10,497,930	15 / 12
2026-09-09	$-1.05	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-09-10	$-1.05	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-09-11	$-1.05	$10,471,723	15 / 12
2026-09-12	$-1.05	$10,471,723	16 / 13
2026-09-13	$-1.05	$10,471,723	16 / 13
2026-09-14	$-1.05	$10,471,723	16 / 13
2026-09-15	$-1.07	$11,053,485	16 / 13
2026-09-16	$-1.07	$11,053,485	16 / 13
2026-09-17	$-1.07	$11,053,485	16 / 13
2026-09-18	$-1.07	$11,053,485	16 / 13
2026-09-19	$-1.07	$11,053,485	16 / 13
2026-09-20	$-1.08	$11,703,690	15 / 13
2026-09-21	$-1.08	$11,703,690	15 / 13
2026-09-22	$-1.08	$11,703,690	15 / 13
2026-09-23	$-1.08	$11,703,690	15 / 13
2026-09-24	$-1.08	$11,703,690	15 / 13
2026-09-25	$-1.08	$11,703,690	14 / 12
2026-09-26	$-1.09	$11,326,724	14 / 13
2026-09-27	$-1.09	$11,326,724	14 / 13
2026-09-28	$-1.09	$11,326,724	14 / 13
2026-09-29	$-1.09	$11,326,701	14 / 13
2026-09-30	$-1.09	$11,326,701	14 / 13
2026-10-01	$-1.11	$12,023,979	15 / 13
2026-10-02	$-1.11	$12,024,002	15 / 13
2026-10-03	$-1.11	$12,024,002	15 / 13
2026-10-04	$-1.11	$12,024,002	15 / 13
2026-10-05	$-1.11	$12,024,002	15 / 13
2026-10-06	$-1.11	$12,026,780	15 / 13
2026-10-07	$-1.11	$12,026,780	15 / 13
2026-10-08	$-1.11	$12,026,780	15 / 13
2026-10-09	$-1.11	$12,026,780	14 / 13
2026-10-10	$-1.11	$12,026,780	14 / 13
2026-10-11	$-1.11	$12,026,780	14 / 13
2026-10-12	$-1.11	$12,026,780	14 / 13
2026-10-13	$-1.11	$12,026,780	14 / 13
2026-10-14	$-1.11	$12,028,446	14 / 13
2026-10-15	$-1.11	$12,028,446	14 / 13
2026-10-16	$-1.11	$12,028,446	14 / 13
2026-10-17	$-1.11	$12,028,446	14 / 13
2026-10-18	$-1.11	$12,028,446	14 / 13
2026-10-19	$-1.11	$12,028,446	14 / 13
2026-10-20	$-1.10	$12,028,446	14 / 13
2026-10-21	$-1.10	$12,028,446	14 / 13
2026-10-22	$-1.10	$12,028,446	14 / 13
2026-10-23	$-1.11	$12,028,424	14 / 13
2026-10-24	$-1.11	$12,028,446	14 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	7	1
2026-06-01	15	8	1
2026-07-01	15	9	1
2026-08-01	15	9	1
2026-09-01	16	9	1
2026-10-01	15	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 20 · prior Jul 22

$76.00 → $59.00-22.4%

Piper SandlerOct 19 · prior Sep 8

$55.00 → $49.00-10.9%

Truist FinancialSep 28 · prior Jul 13

$55.00 → $51.00-7.3%

UBSSep 25 · prior Jun 11

$55.00 → $41.00-25.5%

$0$41.80$83.60

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash flow from operationsPublished status: Broken
Control and reduce net income lossesPublished status: Broken
Reduce operating losses toward break-evenPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-81.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Oklo, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative growth: the business is investing to build advanced nuclear power, fuel, recycling, and isotope operations, but remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with low overall evidence confidence and elevated risk.

What's priced into Oklo, Inc.

The snapshot provides no valuation level or market-expectations estimate, so it is not possible to judge whether OKLO is cheap or expensive versus peers or what growth expectations are already reflected. It reports low fragility, but that does not establish that the valuation is undemanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, operating losses and negative operating cash flow remain substantial, and management has made limited progress on its repeated goal of managing them. A next-quarter earnings miss is an elevated risk after recent misses; recent performance is also well below the industry cohort. Management has added directors and reorganized around its planned businesses, but evidence of execution remains mixed.

What Oklo, Inc. hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on whether OKLO can turn its development plans into deployed businesses while strengthening execution and improving cash generation. Near-term sector conditions are another swing factor: easing rates or stronger results from utility peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker peer results could remove that support. The snapshot gives little detail on project milestones or timelines.