Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-16

$17.36+0.58%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Once Upon a Farm PBC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-7.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.47 → 0.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $2 million and $4 million in 2026	The company aims for a small positive profit of $2 million to $4 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA outlook was raised from $2M-$4M in 2026-Q1 to $3M-$4.5M in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA loss improved from -$3.1M in 2026-Q1 to -$1.7M in 2026-Q2, showing progress toward profitability. The trajectory is delivering with narrowing losses and raised guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
Maintain strong brand partnership with Jennifer Garner	It has a strong brand deal with Jennifer Garner.	Intact	Partnership ends or weakens significantly	Partnership active (May 2026 agreement) vs sustain target May 2026 filing confirms active Jennifer Garner spokesperson agreement; no negative news regarding partnership status. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company formalized an amended spokesperson agreement with Jennifer Garner in 2026-Q2 and recognized related amortization expenses in 2026-Q1 and Q2. This indicates ongoing investment in the partnership. The trajectory shows continued commitment but no direct financial impact disclosed. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
2026 revenue at or above $313 million	A primary condition in Once Upon a Farm PBC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $313 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $313 million in FY26	Revenue: $85.392M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $313 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202685,392,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 369b9346-6924-42d4-9ab9-50f3942472a2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.44

$0.42 → $0.44 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.44B

$0.43B → $0.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.42	$428,369,640	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$0.42	$428,369,640	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.42	$428,369,640	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.42	$428,369,640	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.42	$428,369,640	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.42	$428,369,640	6 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.47	$434,405,860	6 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.48	$436,797,650	6 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.44	$440,735,820	5 / 8
2026-08-14	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.49	$427,600,293	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$0.47	$441,639,339	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$0.44	$441,521,921	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.44	$441,521,921	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.44	$441,521,921	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.44	$441,509,421	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.44	$441,509,421	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.44	$441,509,421	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	4
2026-06-01	5	4
2026-07-01	5	4
2026-08-01	6	4
2026-09-01	6	4
2026-10-01	7	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $2 million and $4 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
2026 revenue at or above $313 millionRevenue: $85.392M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Once Upon a Farm PBC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state reflects mixed signals from management priorities and recent performance, with low confidence in the near-term trajectory.

What's priced into Once Upon a Farm PBC

The market appears to have low expectations for fragility, as no significant risks have been priced in. However, the recent changes in confidence and company momentum suggest that investors are cautious.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing net sales and achieving positive adjusted EBITDA, with recent guidance revisions showing some progress. However, the near-term risk of missing expectations remains, particularly given the recent trend of earnings surprises trending down.

What Once Upon a Farm PBC hinges on

The thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain or improve guidance without cutting it, as well as external factors like inflation and job market strength. A downturn in economic indicators could negatively impact OFRM more than other names in the Consumer Staples sector.