Realty Income (O)

NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$56.08+0.95%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Realty Income’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.69 → 1.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand global addressable market via partnerships	A supporting condition in Realty Income's published investment case. The stated target is sustain expansion efforts.	Intact	no progress or reversal in global market expansion by FY26	Qualitative progress confirmed vs FY26 target Realty Income formed a €528M European JV with KKR and expanded into data centers, advancing global market expansion. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Investment volume reaches $9.5 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Realty Income's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.5 USD_BILLIONS.	Intact	investment volume falls below 6.0 USD_BILLIONS in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management raised full-year investment volume guidance from $8 billion to $9.5 billion in 2026, reflecting $2.6 billion invested in Q2 and an active pipeline. The trajectory shows delivering growth in investment volume consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Portfolio occupancy remains near 98.9%	Its portfolio occupancy stays high near 99%.	Intact	occupancy falls below 98.5% over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Portfolio occupancy remained high at 98.9% in Q1 and 98.8% in Q2 2026, consistent with management's guidance of approximately 98.5%. The occupancy level is stable, delivering on the stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.67

$1.74 → $1.67 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.96B

$6.11B → $5.96B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.74	$6,110,439,312	6 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$6,211,411,710	3 / 8
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$6,211,411,710	3 / 8
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$6,211,411,710	3 / 8
2026-07-28	$1.74	$6,110,463,038	6 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$6,211,411,710	3 / 8
2026-07-30	$1.74	$6,110,463,038	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$1.74	$6,110,463,038	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.74	$6,110,463,038	6 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$6,211,411,710	3 / 8
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$6,211,411,710	3 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$6,211,411,710	3 / 8
2026-08-05	$1.74	$6,110,463,038	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.74	$6,110,463,038	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.76	$6,110,765,108	6 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$6,340,472,300	3 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$6,340,472,300	3 / 9
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$6,340,472,300	3 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.76	$6,110,765,108	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$1.76	$6,110,765,108	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$1.76	$6,110,765,108	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$1.76	$6,110,765,108	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.76	$6,110,765,108	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.76	$6,110,765,108	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.76	$6,110,765,108	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.76	$6,110,765,108	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$1.70	$6,078,928,317	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$1.70	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$1.70	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$1.70	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$1.70	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$1.70	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$1.69	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$1.69	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$1.69	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$1.69	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$1.69	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$1.69	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$1.69	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$1.69	$6,098,058,957	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$1.69	$6,099,433,076	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$1.69	$6,099,433,076	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$1.69	$6,030,552,499	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$1.69	$6,030,552,499	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$1.69	$6,030,552,499	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$1.69	$6,030,552,499	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$1.69	$6,030,552,499	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$1.70	$6,030,552,499	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$1.70	$6,037,302,499	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.69	$6,037,302,499	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$1.69	$6,037,302,499	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$1.69	$6,037,302,499	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$1.69	$6,037,302,499	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$1.69	$6,037,302,499	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.69	$6,037,302,499	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.69	$6,037,302,499	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.69	$6,037,302,499	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.69	$6,030,260,496	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.69	$6,030,260,496	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.69	$6,030,260,496	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.69	$6,030,260,496	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$1.69	$6,030,260,496	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$1.69	$6,030,260,496	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$1.69	$6,030,337,419	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$1.69	$6,030,337,419	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$1.69	$6,030,337,419	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$1.69	$6,030,337,419	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$1.69	$6,030,337,419	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$1.69	$6,030,337,419	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$1.69	$6,024,948,870	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$1.68	$6,024,948,870	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$1.68	$5,961,438,677	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$1.68	$5,961,438,677	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$1.68	$5,961,438,677	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$1.68	$5,961,438,677	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$1.68	$5,961,438,677	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$1.68	$5,961,438,677	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$1.68	$5,961,438,677	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$1.67	$5,962,092,313	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$1.67	$5,962,092,313	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$1.67	$5,962,092,313	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$1.67	$5,962,092,313	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$1.67	$5,962,092,313	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	16	1
2026-06-01	8	15	1
2026-07-01	8	15	1
2026-08-01	8	15	1
2026-09-01	9	16	1
2026-10-01	8	17	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 9 · prior Jun 30

$70.75 → $63.75-9.9%

Truist FinancialOct 1

$60.00New observation · no comparable prior

ScotiabankSep 24

$59.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISISep 21 · prior Aug 7

$68.00 → $65.00-4.4%

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 17 · prior May 13

$66.00 → $61.00-7.6%

$0$38.91$77.83

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Investment volume reaches $9.5 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Portfolio occupancy remains near 98.9%Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Realty Income outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is in a stable real estate company with a focus on income generation. The current thesis state reflects a mix of strong recent performance and management volatility, leading to a medium confidence level.

What's priced into Realty Income

The market currently prices O at a premium compared to its peers, suggesting that investors expect solid performance. There is no significant fragility in the current setup, indicating that the market does not foresee major disruptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown strong performance in maintaining high portfolio occupancy and expanding private capital partnerships. However, there is mixed progress on increasing investment volume, which could impact future growth.

What Realty Income hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to raise guidance in upcoming quarters, potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, and the performance of sector leaders. These factors could influence O's trajectory positively.