Envista Holdings (NVST)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.60-1.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Envista Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.67 → 1.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	753.16M
EPS	—	0.405
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.88B
EPS	$1.5–$1.55non-GAAP	1.531
Revenue growth	3.5%–4.5%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.98B
EPS	—	1.661

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA growth to at least $99 million	Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA rising 25% year-on-year.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $79 million next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income increased from $46.3M in 2025-Q4 to $80.3M in 2026-Q2, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded from 12.8% to 14.7%. Management consistently attributes margin gains to operational excellence via the Envista Business System, indicating delivery against this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Core sales revenue growth >=9.5% YoY	Envista grows core sales about 9.5% yearly.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year	Revenue growth: 7.1% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.5% YoY. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20267.095734 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5f671fcd-c5ce-4fe7-91c1-3b59efb943b1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $616.9M in 2025-Q1 to $731M in 2026-Q2, with core sales growth ranging from 5.0% to 10.8% across these quarters. Management has consistently raised full-year outlooks for core sales growth, indicating delivery against this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow near positive conversion with ~$100% conversion rate	Free cash flow guidance is maintained despite short-term volatility.	Improving	Free cash flow remains negative beyond Q1 2026	Free cash flow: $88.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: sustain ~100% free cash flow conversion. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 5, 202688,500,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free cash flow improved from $76M in 2025-Q2 to $105M in 2026-Q2, and operating cash flow rose from $89M to $119M in the same period. Management maintains ~100% free cash flow conversion guidance, showing progress but some volatility in quarterly cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain share repurchases at or above recent levels	A supporting condition in Envista Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.6 million shares repurchased per quarter.	Intact	Share repurchases drop below 1 million shares per quarter	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Share repurchases totaled 2.4 million shares ($59M) in 2026-Q2 and 1.6 million shares ($43M) in 2026-Q1, with an incremental $300 million program authorized. Management is actively executing repurchases, showing delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.66

$1.57 → $1.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.98B

$2.96B → $2.98B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.57	$2,959,215,798	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$1.57	$2,959,576,450	16 / 15
2026-07-26	$1.57	$2,959,576,450	16 / 15
2026-07-27	$1.57	$2,959,215,798	10 / 12
2026-07-28	$1.57	$2,959,576,450	16 / 15
2026-07-29	$1.57	$2,956,916,870	16 / 15
2026-07-30	$1.57	$2,956,916,870	16 / 15
2026-07-31	$1.57	$2,956,916,870	16 / 15
2026-08-01	$1.57	$2,956,556,763	10 / 12
2026-08-02	$1.57	$2,956,916,870	16 / 15
2026-08-03	$1.57	$2,956,916,870	16 / 15
2026-08-04	$1.57	$2,956,556,763	10 / 12
2026-08-05	$1.57	$2,956,556,763	10 / 12
2026-08-06	$1.57	$2,956,556,763	10 / 12
2026-08-07	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-08	$1.64	$2,976,234,260	16 / 14
2026-08-09	$1.64	$2,976,234,260	16 / 14
2026-08-10	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-12	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-13	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-15	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-16	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-17	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-18	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-19	$1.65	$2,974,925,255	10 / 12
2026-08-20	$1.67	$2,983,038,409	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$1.67	$2,983,038,409	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$1.67	$2,983,038,409	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$1.67	$2,983,038,409	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$1.67	$2,983,038,409	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$1.67	$2,983,038,409	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$1.67	$2,983,038,409	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$1.67	$2,983,038,409	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$1.67	$2,983,038,409	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$1.67	$2,983,040,282	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$1.67	$2,983,040,282	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$1.67	$2,983,040,282	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$1.67	$2,983,040,282	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$1.67	$2,983,000,282	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$1.67	$2,983,000,282	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-06	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-07	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-08	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-09	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-10	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-11	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-12	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$1.67	$2,983,465,075	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$1.67	$2,983,466,949	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$1.67	$2,983,466,949	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$1.67	$2,981,772,062	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$1.67	$2,981,772,062	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$1.67	$2,981,772,062	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$1.67	$2,981,772,062	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$1.67	$2,981,772,062	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$1.67	$2,981,772,062	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$1.67	$2,984,772,062	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$1.67	$2,984,938,409	10 / 12
2026-09-27	$1.67	$2,985,138,409	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.67	$2,985,138,409	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.67	$2,985,138,409	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.67	$2,985,102,417	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.67	$2,985,102,417	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.67	$2,985,102,417	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$1.67	$2,983,273,846	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$1.67	$2,983,273,846	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$1.67	$2,983,273,846	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$1.67	$2,981,559,560	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$1.67	$2,981,559,560	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$1.66	$2,980,716,218	9 / 11
2026-10-09	$1.66	$2,980,716,218	9 / 11
2026-10-10	$1.66	$2,980,437,647	9 / 11
2026-10-11	$1.66	$2,980,437,647	9 / 11
2026-10-12	$1.66	$2,980,437,647	9 / 11
2026-10-13	$1.66	$2,980,436,925	9 / 11
2026-10-14	$1.66	$2,980,436,925	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$1.66	$2,980,436,925	9 / 11
2026-10-16	$1.66	$2,979,422,640	9 / 11
2026-10-17	$1.66	$2,979,422,640	9 / 11
2026-10-18	$1.66	$2,979,422,640	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$1.66	$2,979,422,640	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$1.66	$2,979,422,640	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$1.66	$2,979,422,640	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$1.66	$2,979,422,640	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$1.66	$2,979,422,640	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$1.66	$2,979,422,640	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	8
2026-06-01	7	8
2026-07-01	7	9
2026-08-01	7	9
2026-09-01	8	9
2026-10-01	8	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Robert W. BairdOct 15 · prior Aug 6

$34.00 → $26.00-23.5%

Leerink PartnersOct 14

$32.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalSep 28 · prior Jul 8

$27.00 → $26.00-3.7%

$0$18.70$37.40

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA growth to at least $99 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Core sales revenue growth >=9.5% YoYPublished status: Broken
Free cash flow near positive conversion with ~$100% conversion rateFree cash flow: $88.5M
Sustain share repurchases at or above recent levelsRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Envista Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an execution-led healthcare growth story, not yet a profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with management priorities on track and recent financial performance in the top half of its industry.

What's priced into Envista Holdings

The valuation evidence is mixed: NVST is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 0.65 premium versus peers. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but the negative expectations gap suggests market expectations may be ahead of the evidence; the snapshot does not explain this gap further.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s stated focus on revenue growth, margins, and cash flow has shown progress, and the August earnings report was positive. Revenue, operating income, and free cash flow improved in the cited periods, but the business remains loss-making overall and quarterly cash flow has varied. Earnings surprises have been trending down, so guidance and execution remain important near-term checks.

What Envista Holdings hinges on

The near-term downside case is a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data, which could raise recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names. The favorable case depends on continued strength from healthcare bellwethers such as ISRG, BDX, and RMD, alongside NVST maintaining revenue growth and margin progress.