NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver EPS near $6.66 in FY27 | A primary condition in NetApp's published investment case. The stated target is ~$6.66. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $6.0 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $1.88 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.66. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 20261.88 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 19a85f60-840a-44d7-8910-21d646f47281. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin near 70% in FY26 | A supporting condition in NetApp's published investment case. The stated target is ~70%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 68% | Gross margin: 78.01% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~70%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 202678.009896 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 19a85f60-840a-44d7-8910-21d646f47281. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain operating margin near 24% in FY26 | A primary condition in NetApp's published investment case. The stated target is ~24%. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 23% | Operating margin: 26.61% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~24%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 202626.608026 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 19a85f60-840a-44d7-8910-21d646f47281. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near $7.55B in FY27 | A primary condition in NetApp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.55 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $7.0 billion in FY27 | Revenue: $1.819B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.55 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 20261,819,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 19a85f60-840a-44d7-8910-21d646f47281. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsLatest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on technology and cloud services. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth strategies.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations for continued growth. However, there is a divergence as NTAP is seen as cheap compared to its peers, suggesting some room for improvement in market perception.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by management's focus on revenue growth and margin maintenance. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings guidance cuts, which could negatively impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, performance of sector peers, and NTAP's ability to maintain its growth trajectory without cutting guidance. Monitoring these elements will be crucial.
Overall, NTAP's performance and management priorities support a solid long-term thesis, but investors should remain aware of potential risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.