NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.93-2.06%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NerdWallet, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$244M–$260M	—
Operating income	$22M–$30MGAAP $29M–$37Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	242.2M
EPS	—	0.168
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	913.29M
EPS	—	0.883
EBITDA	$131M–$147Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	970.12M
EPS	—	0.963

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $19 million in Q2 2026	Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA near $27 million.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $19 million in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $186 million in Q2 2026	A primary condition in NerdWallet, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $186 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $186 million in Q2 2026	Revenue: $197.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $186 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 2026197,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 95c1270e-f0ad-40e0-bcf9-46d4e62fb6e5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $209.2M in 2025-Q1 to $222.2M in 2026-Q1 (+6% YoY) and was $197.3M in 2026-Q2 (+6% YoY). Guidance for 2026-Q3 projects revenue growth of 17% YoY. Consumer revenue increased 8% YoY in 2026-Q2 while SMB revenue declined 11% YoY. Management is delivering moderate revenue growth with mixed segment performance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Share repurchase authorization increases to $125 million	The company buys back shares, increasing repurchase authorization to $125 million.	Intact	No progress or reversal on share buyback program	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.97B

$0.94B → $0.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$943,897,260	1 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$943,897,260	1 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$943,897,260	1 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$943,897,260	1 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$943,897,260	1 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$943,897,260	1 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$943,897,260	1 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$944,147,260	1 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$944,147,260	1 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$944,147,260	1 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$939,884,729	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$964,216,078	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$967,680,589	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$970,116,707	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	1	1
2026-06-01	4	1	1
2026-07-01	4	1	1
2026-08-01	4	1	1
2026-09-01	4	1	1
2026-10-01	4	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $19 million in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue reaches at least $186 million in Q2 2026Revenue: $197.3M
Share repurchase authorization increases to $125 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NerdWallet, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NRDS is a moderate-growth business with robust earnings quality and stable management, but it is not showing a smooth growth path. The long-term thesis remains intact, while elevated risk and recent earnings misses make the near-term picture less certain.

What's priced into NerdWallet, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to NRDS being cheap versus peers, and the valuation score has fallen recently. The priced-in tag is justified with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market may still be cautious about the business outlook.

What the fundamentals likely do

Revenue growth has been moderate, with consumer revenue rising while SMB revenue declined in the latest quarter; management guides for faster revenue growth in the next quarter. Adjusted EBITDA, meaning earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, rose sharply in Q1 but fell in Q2, so delivery remains mixed. Consecutive earnings misses and a 45% estimated miss probability make the next report a near-term risk.

What NerdWallet, Inc. hinges on

The next call matters: a guidance cut would signal weaker execution, while the current Q3 guidance implies stronger revenue growth and a rebound in adjusted EBITDA. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on improving SMB performance and steadier earnings; lower rates and continued strong results from sector bellwethers could provide a supportive backdrop.