NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$9.37-1.99%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $19 million in Q2 2026: EBITDA $19.7M vs $19.0M target.
NerdWallet grows revenue about 7% yearly, reaching $194 million in Q2 2026. Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA near $27 million. The company buys back shares, increasing repurchase authorization to $125 million. Valuation is cheap with a PE of 10.7 and free cash flow yield near 19%.
Revenue growth lags behind targets, with Q1 2026 revenue down from Q4 2025. Profit margins shrink as adjusted EBITDA guidance drops to $19-$27 million. Share buybacks may slow if cash flow weakens. The sector faces headwinds, and the stock is under pressure from recent market selloff.
The market prices NerdWallet about 30% below our fair value near $13, reflecting moderate revenue growth of 7%. Our fair value aligns with the Street median, but we see risk in margin and execution that the market partly prices.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $19 million in Q2 2026
Improve adjusted EBITDA with a target range of $19-$27 million for Q2 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving financial metrics. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been neutral with some volatility in earnings.
The market currently prices NRDS as cheap compared to peers, reflecting a significant expectations gap. The valuation suggests that investors are not overly optimistic about future performance, which is justified given the recent mixed results.
Fundamentals are likely to show moderate revenue growth, but adjusted EBITDA has experienced volatility. Management's focus on increasing revenue and improving EBITDA is evident, but recent earnings misses raise concerns about execution.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META, which could influence NRDS's trajectory. Additionally, management's ability to deliver on revenue and EBITDA guidance will be critical for maintaining investor confidence.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company faces challenges as profits declined despite rising revenue. This threatens its goal to enhance adjusted EBITDA. The recent news highlights these profit issues, impacting the overall outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $186 million in Q2 2026
Focus on growing revenue through expanding consumer and SMB financial product offerings and deepening direct customer relationships.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $209.2M in 2025-Q1 to $222.2M in 2026-Q1 (+6% YoY) and was $197.3M in 2026-Q2 (+6% YoY). Guidance for 2026-Q3 projects revenue growth of 17% YoY. Consumer revenue increased 8% YoY in 2026-Q2 while SMB revenue declined 11% YoY. Management is delivering moderate revenue growth with mixed segment performance.
“The success of our vertical integration strategy now gives us the conviction to make incremental investments... to grow this incremental investment fivefold in 2026 versus 2025.”
“Strength in banking and personal loans revenue helped offset headwinds in auto insurance.”
“Revenue is expected in the range of $224-$232 million, up 9% year-over-year at the midpoint.”
Breaks if: No progress or reversal on share buyback program
Continue the share repurchase program with an increased authorization from $75 million to $125 million.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NRDS will need to navigate sector challenges while executing on its growth priorities. Not investment advice.