Northrop Grumman (NOC)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15

$519.86+4.05%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Northrop Grumman’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

30.45 → 30.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend at $2.31 per share	The company maintains a stable dividend of $2.31 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $2.31	Dividend per share: $2.47 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $2.31. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20262.47 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6b0befa2-e7dd-4998-b59a-b54a2b709f6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management has stated this priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $2.06 in 2025-Q1 to $2.47 in 2026-Q2, showing a maintained or growing dividend policy. This reflects delivering on capital return commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS near $27.65 in FY26	Operating income shows stability near $989 million, supporting steady cash flow.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $27.4 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $7.68 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $27.4 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20267.68 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6b0befa2-e7dd-4998-b59a-b54a2b709f6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised 2026 sales guidance from $43.5B-$44.0B to $43.75B-$44.25B and MTM-adjusted EPS guidance from $27.40-$27.90 to $28.60-$29.10 between 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Free cash flow guidance remains at $3.1B-$3.5B. The trajectory matches management's stated confidence and delivery on growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating income stability near $989 million quarterly	Operating income shows stability near $989 million, supporting steady cash flow.	Under Pressure	Operating income declines significantly below $989 million quarterly average	Operating income: $1.096B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain operating income near recent quarterly levels. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20261,096,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6b0befa2-e7dd-4998-b59a-b54a2b709f6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income improved from $573M in 2025-Q1 to $1.4B in 2025-Q4, with operating margin rates increasing from 6.1% to 13.8% in 2025-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering on operating income stability and margin improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue near $44 billion in FY26	Sales are expected near $44 billion in 2026 with profit per share around $27.65.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $43.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $10.876B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $43.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 202610,876,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6b0befa2-e7dd-4998-b59a-b54a2b709f6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised 2026 sales guidance from $43.5B-$44.0B to $43.75B-$44.25B and MTM-adjusted EPS guidance from $27.40-$27.90 to $28.60-$29.10 between 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Free cash flow guidance remains at $3.1B-$3.5B. The trajectory matches management's stated confidence and delivery on growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$30.36

$30.36 → $30.36 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$47.08B

$47.10B → $47.08B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$30.36	$47,097,919,001	16 / 16
2026-07-25	$30.36	$46,989,966,410	22 / 22
2026-07-26	$30.36	$47,097,919,001	16 / 16
2026-07-27	$30.36	$46,985,954,470	22 / 22
2026-07-28	$30.39	$47,095,067,162	16 / 16
2026-07-29	$30.37	$46,987,256,380	22 / 22
2026-07-30	$30.39	$47,095,067,162	16 / 16
2026-07-31	$30.37	$46,987,256,380	22 / 22
2026-08-01	$30.39	$47,095,210,019	16 / 16
2026-08-02	$30.39	$47,095,210,019	16 / 16
2026-08-03	$30.39	$47,095,210,019	16 / 16
2026-08-04	$30.37	$46,987,256,380	22 / 22
2026-08-05	$30.37	$46,987,256,380	22 / 22
2026-08-06	$30.39	$47,095,210,019	16 / 16
2026-08-07	$30.39	$47,095,243,262	16 / 16
2026-08-08	$30.43	$47,003,847,290	22 / 22
2026-08-09	$30.43	$47,003,847,290	22 / 22
2026-08-10	$30.39	$47,095,243,262	16 / 16
2026-08-12	$30.39	$47,095,243,262	16 / 16
2026-08-13	$30.43	$47,003,847,290	22 / 22
2026-08-14	$30.39	$47,095,243,262	16 / 16
2026-08-15	$30.39	$47,095,243,262	16 / 16
2026-08-16	$30.39	$47,095,243,262	16 / 16
2026-08-17	$30.39	$47,095,243,262	16 / 16
2026-08-18	$30.39	$47,095,243,262	16 / 16
2026-08-19	$30.39	$47,095,243,262	16 / 16
2026-08-20	$30.45	$47,104,462,310	16 / 16
2026-08-21	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-22	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-23	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-24	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-25	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-26	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-27	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-28	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-29	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-30	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-08-31	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-01	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-02	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-03	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-04	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-05	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-06	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-07	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-08	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-09	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-10	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-11	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-12	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-13	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-14	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-15	$30.45	$47,104,464,691	16 / 16
2026-09-16	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-17	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-18	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-19	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-20	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-21	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-22	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-23	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-24	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-25	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-26	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-27	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-28	$30.46	$47,101,307,205	17 / 17
2026-09-29	$30.48	$47,111,149,197	17 / 17
2026-09-30	$30.48	$47,111,149,197	17 / 17
2026-10-01	$30.48	$47,111,149,197	17 / 17
2026-10-02	$30.48	$47,111,149,197	17 / 17
2026-10-03	$30.48	$47,112,226,470	17 / 17
2026-10-04	$30.48	$47,112,226,470	17 / 17
2026-10-05	$30.48	$47,112,226,470	17 / 17
2026-10-06	$30.48	$47,104,381,015	17 / 17
2026-10-07	$30.46	$47,099,873,787	17 / 18
2026-10-08	$30.44	$47,093,452,038	17 / 18
2026-10-09	$30.44	$47,093,452,038	17 / 18
2026-10-10	$30.44	$47,093,452,038	17 / 18
2026-10-11	$30.39	$47,089,582,472	16 / 17
2026-10-12	$30.39	$47,089,582,472	16 / 17
2026-10-13	$30.39	$47,089,582,472	16 / 17
2026-10-14	$30.39	$47,089,582,472	16 / 17
2026-10-15	$30.36	$47,077,799,864	16 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	12	0
2026-06-01	14	9	0
2026-07-01	14	9	0
2026-08-01	14	11	0
2026-09-01	14	10	0
2026-10-01	15	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 14 · prior Sep 23

$620.00 → $556.00-10.3%

BarclaysOct 8

$419.00New observation · no comparable prior

Redburn PartnersOct 6

$680.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 2

$525.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$374.00$748.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend at $2.31 per shareDividend per share: $2.47 per share
EPS near $27.65 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Operating income stability near $989 million quarterlyPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue near $44 billion in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Northrop Grumman outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings performance, but it faces challenges from sector dynamics.

What's priced into Northrop Grumman

The valuation suggests that the market views NOC as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This indicates that the market may not fully account for potential risks or rewards in the near term.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to show mixed results, with management focusing on reaffirming and raising financial guidance. Recent performance has been neutral, but the company has a low probability of missing earnings expectations.

What Northrop Grumman hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain or improve guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Any changes in guidance from these companies could significantly impact NOC's trajectory.