NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS near $27.65 in FY26: EPS $27.65 vs $27.4 target.
Northrop Grumman keeps winning big defense contracts, like a $312 million Navy deal. Sales are expected near $44 billion in 2026 with profit per share around $27.65. The company maintains a stable dividend of $2.31 per share. Operating income shows stability near $989 million, supporting steady cash flow.
Margins may come under pressure, as recent guidance cuts suggest. Growth could slow below analyst expectations of 7% revenue rise. Supply chain issues and softer missile test progress may hurt future earnings and operating income.
The market price is about 11% below our fair value estimate near $632, reflecting cautious views on growth and margins. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance, but margin pressures and recent guidance cuts are partly priced in.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $2.31
Breaks if: EPS falls below $27.4 per share in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income declines significantly below $989 million quarterly average
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on stable management and a commitment to dividends. The current thesis state reflects a mixed outlook, with recent performance being neutral but management priorities showing promise.
The market appears to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that while the stock is seen as undervalued, there is also a recognition of its fragile earnings quality.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, supported by management's focus on operating income and margin improvement. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings misses, although the probability is low.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to reaffirm and potentially raise financial guidance in upcoming calls. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX will be crucial in determining the overall momentum for NOC.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Northrop Grumman raised its 2026 financial guidance for sales and EPS, reinforcing growth expectations. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $43.5 billion in FY26
In the 1-3 year view, NOC shows promise due to its stable management and commitment to dividends, but it faces risks from sector performance and earnings guidance. Not investment advice.
