Neumora Therapeutics Inc (NMRA)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.38-6.48%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Neumora Therapeutics Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.175
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	625,000
EPS	—	-0.909
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.9M
EPS	—	-0.636

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Fund operating plan into Q3 2027	Neumora aims to fund operations into Q3 2027.	Intact	Cash runway falls short of Q3 2027	Cash and cash equivalents: $116.834M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash runway into Q3 2027. Target period ends 2027-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source date unavailable116,834,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_balance_sheet. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete NMRA-511 dose study	It plans to finish NMRA-511 dose study by Q4 2026.	Intact	Dose study not completed by Q4 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Initiate NMRA-511 Phase 2b study	The company targets starting a Phase 2b study for NMRA-511 by end of 2026.	Intact	Phase 2b study not started by end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.64

$-0.74 → $-0.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.00B

$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.74	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.74	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$-0.74	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$-0.74	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$-0.74	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$-0.74	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$-0.74	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$-0.74	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.74	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-02	$-0.73	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$-0.74	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$-0.73	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-08-05	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$-0.73	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$-0.73	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.73	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$-0.73	$1,336,180	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-15	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-16	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 6
2026-08-19	$-0.73	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-22	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-23	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-24	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-25	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-26	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-27	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-28	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-29	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-30	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-08-31	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-01	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-02	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-03	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-04	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-05	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-06	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-07	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-08	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-09	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-10	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-11	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-12	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-13	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-14	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-15	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-16	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-17	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-18	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-19	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-20	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-21	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-22	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-23	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-24	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-25	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-26	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-27	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-28	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-29	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-09-30	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-01	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-02	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-03	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-04	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-05	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-06	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-07	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-08	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-09	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-10	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-11	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-12	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-13	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-14	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-15	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-16	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-17	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-18	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-19	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-20	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-21	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-22	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-23	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5
2026-10-24	$-0.64	$2,903,199	7 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	1	1
2026-06-01	7	1	1
2026-07-01	7	1	1
2026-08-01	7	1	1
2026-09-01	7	1	1
2026-10-01	7	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Fund operating plan into Q3 2027Cash and cash equivalents: $116.834M
Complete NMRA-511 dose studyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Initiate NMRA-511 Phase 2b studyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-90.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Neumora Therapeutics Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative growth, not a proven earnings compounder: the company is loss-making and faces high risk. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, but confidence is low and recent financial performance is only neutral.

What's priced into Neumora Therapeutics Inc

The evidence snapshot provides no valuation measure or specific market expectations, so whether NMRA is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. Recent earnings were in line, while the share-price reaction was down; the evidence does not establish what expectations that reaction reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the main focus is whether management maintains its stated cash runway into Q3 2027, as cash declined from $182.5 million at 2025-Q4 to $116.8 million at 2026-Q2. NMRA-511 remains on track for a late-2026 data readout and an early-2027 Phase 2 start, while NMRA-215's planned end-of-2026 IND submission and Phase 1 start have mixed status. The next results carry elevated miss risk, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.

What Neumora Therapeutics Inc hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on cash lasting as management expects and the Alzheimer’s and obesity programs meeting their stated milestones. Near term, weaker jobs data could add pressure across cyclical and Healthcare names, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.