Nike, Inc. (NKE)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-16

$37.13-0.03%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Previous published Living FV report summary

Update pending. These are the previous publication’s values, dates and assumptions. A newer calculation has been selected; its matching report is not yet published. This report is not current.

NKE conditional business value

This summary shows published values and their evidence and input disclosures. Expand the evidence sections below to inspect the complete published assumptions and monitoring records.

partial source scope coverage · Financial evidence: questionable · Scope: explicit source sample

Values are USD per common share, conditional on the published operating, funding and return assumptions. A scenario range is not a probability or confidence interval.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to compare Low, Base and High. Keyboard users can focus the table and use the arrow keys.

Published conditional value ranges in USD per common share
Business scope	Bear (Low)	Base	Bull (High)
Value of today’s operating business Current reported operating scale, with the stated tax, funding and return assumptions.	$25.10	$26.49	$27.89
Value including the business growth plan The whole company forecast, including initiative effects and the investment needed to deliver them.	$23.49	$37.25	$55.25

Valuation date: 2026-09-29
Reported financial opening date: 2026-05-31
Report input as of: 2026-09-29T16:21:44.354007+00:00
Narrative source cutoff: 2026-09-29T14:53:18.318231+00:00
Report published: 2026-09-29T16:32:34.224831+00:00

Following: current · Continuing updates: current.

1440 of 1440 published forecast outcomes remain unknown. Publication does not establish forecast accuracy or complete evidence.

Assumptions, estimates and uncertainty

These values depend on modeled operations, growth, funding and required return. Company estimates and any disclosed proxy inputs are assumptions, not newly observed company facts. The scenario range does not measure the chance of an outcome.

Published accounting estimates: 2 disclosed
Published financing assumptions: 0 entries supplied
Required equity return: 9.45%
Sensitivity cases: 3 entries; unavailable cases remain visible below

Published base-scenario operating assumptions

These are model inputs for the published base case. All scenario paths and all source references remain in the published operating phases below.

Years 1–1
Annual revenue growth: -4% · Operating margin: 4%
Input origin: local model estimate
Years 2–3
Annual revenue growth: 5% · Operating margin: 8%
Input origin: local model estimate
Years 4–6
Annual revenue growth: 6% · Operating margin: 11%
Input origin: local model estimate

Mature annual growth: 3% · Mature operating margin: 11%.

Published maturity basis: The base case assumes a steady return to historical growth rates as product innovation and distribution expansion take hold. The company needs these additional years to fully realize the benefits of the 'Sport Offense' strategy and facility reductions. Mature margins of 11% are coherent with the asset-light model, where capital intensity is low relative to revenue, and cash reserves are minimal due to efficient working capital management.

Exact input bases and proxy disclosures, where supplied, appear under Accounting estimates and Required return below. No supplied entry does not establish that an assumption is unnecessary or evidence is complete.

Evidence and model limitations

Historical interest over closing claims is a dated financing-rate estimate; maturity/refinancing and cash-payment timing may differ.
Finance-lease rate uses operating-lease rate as an explicit proxy.
Noncommon claim cost uses the industry asset return until a claim-specific distribution schedule is bound.
Future cash yield equals dated Treasury as a declared estimate; financing rates and share balances are fixed absent explicit schedules.
Reported balances are carried, with any source-bound cash issuance applied separately to dated value; other interim balance movements are unobserved.
Mature profitability, growth duration and future investment are company estimates, not guarantees.
Source inventory/extraction coverage and historical data quality remain separate from calculation completion.
Empirical range uses the completed annual calibration source family; conditional transfer, not total FV probability.
Negative donor residuals remain visible; fixed-financing stress results are not negative tradable share prices.

Source coverage and unresolved evidence

Coverage

Status

PARTIAL_SOURCE_SCOPE

Scope

EXPLICIT_SOURCE_SAMPLE

Financial

QUESTIONABLE

Narrative source profile

Cutoff: 2026-09-29T14:53:18.318231+00:00
Mode: FULL_HISTORY
Basis: All prepared narrative sources since the declared historical scope start.
Version: living_fv_narrative_coverage_profile_v1
Scope start: 2016-01-01
Numerical history preserved: Yes
Deferred periodic accessions: No entries supplied
Selected periodic accessions: 0000320187-16-000242
0000320187-16-000264
0000320187-16-000336
0000320187-16-000381
0000320187-17-000003
0000320187-17-000031
0000320187-17-000090
0000320187-17-000184
0000320187-18-000007
0000320187-18-000041
0000320187-18-000142
0000320187-18-000213
0000320187-19-000007

Accounting estimates, financing and sensitivity cases

Input disclosures

Estimated inputs

Unit
USD
Basis
Primary lease note discloses operating leases; vendor total debt reconciles to conventional debt plus operating leases. Finance lease zero remains an explicit perimeter estimate, not a missing-tag substitution.
Field
finance_leases
Label
Finance leases
Value
0
Period
End
2026-05-31
Start
Not supplied
Status
ESTIMATED
Unit
USD
Basis
Explicit accounting estimate.
Field
nonoperating_assets
Label
Nonoperating assets
Value
9027000000
Period
End

Dated share basis

Share basis: PERIOD_END_REPORTED_CLASS_A_PLUS_CLASS_B_FIXED_FUTURE_CASH_SBC

Required return and its source policy

Equity return

0.094457334404056417965891126342972559658299183820211

Equity return policy

Basis: Solve central funded intrinsic capital, then hold the resulting equity rate across paired and empirical operating comparisons.
Method: INTRINSIC_CAPITAL_FIXED_POINT

Published operating phases

{
  "phases": [
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "-0.05"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.02"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.05"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "from_year": 1,
      "phase_index": 0,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E0cf8b1c698aa233e",
        "E465fc9d694e8e046",
        "E60c151f8ae35f113",
        "E697b07515bbd718c",
        "E9015f9e97c4b8837",
        "a5225ab0ba574365b18a7045ce798866a60278ed22d97ffece248bae2038ab16"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Source-proposed noncapital assumptions; numerical basis is the current primary TTM reference.",
      "through_year": 1,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Estimates reflect a slight reduction from TTM cash capex of $684M, consistent with the 'Win Now' cost discipline and supply chain rightsizing initiatives. Depreciation remains anchored to the reported TTM amount as no significant asset disposals are indicated.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ACCOUNTING",
          "E2f7a4be2c7446ab9",
          "E9015f9e97c4b8837"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "650000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "747000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "0"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.02"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.05"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.02"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 2
        }
      ],
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "from_year": 2,
      "phase_index": 1,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E210f4b7a81ddbaaa",
        "E2a4f40dfc228560e",
        "E2f7a4be2c7446ab9",
        "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Source-proposed noncapital assumptions; numerical basis is the current primary TTM reference.",
      "through_year": 3,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Capex moderates further as initial restructuring investments conclude, aligning with the expectation of operating overhead declining. Depreciation decreases slightly as older assets are fully depreciated or replaced with more efficient infrastructure.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ACCOUNTING",
          "E2a4f40dfc228560e",
          "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "620000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "720000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "0"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.04"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.08"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.25"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.015"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 3
        }
      ],
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "from_year": 4,
      "phase_index": 2,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E3e5ca82d6bc43b43",
        "E3f96426225fc137e",
        "E465fc9d694e8e046",
        "E7bcdb84ddb2ea191"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Source-proposed noncapital assumptions; numerical basis is the current primary TTM reference.",
      "through_year": 6,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Maintenance-level capex supports the mature phase of the business, focusing on sustaining existing capacity rather than expansion. Depreciation continues its gradual decline as the asset base stabilizes.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ACCOUNTING",
          "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e",
          "E75ad1cc5c8373226"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "600000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "700000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "0"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "-0.04"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.04"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.05"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.04"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "BASE",
      "from_year": 1,
      "phase_index": 0,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E0cf8b1c698aa233e",
        "E465fc9d694e8e046",
        "E60c151f8ae35f113",
        "E697b07515bbd718c",
        "E9015f9e97c4b8837",
        "a5225ab0ba574365b18a7045ce798866a60278ed22d97ffece248bae2038ab16"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Source-proposed noncapital assumptions; numerical basis is the current primary TTM reference.",
      "through_year": 1,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Capex is held flat at the TTM level of $684M, reflecting continued investment in demand creation and supply chain optimization. Depreciation is anchored to the reported TTM figure.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ACCOUNTING",
          "E2a4f40dfc228560e",
          "E9015f9e97c4b8837"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "684000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "747000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "0"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.05"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.08"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.25"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.02"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 2
        }
      ],
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "BASE",
      "from_year": 2,
      "phase_index": 1,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E2a4f40dfc228560e",
        "E2f7a4be2c7446ab9",
        "E465fc9d694e8e046",
        "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Source-proposed noncapital assumptions; numerical basis is the current primary TTM reference.",
      "through_year": 3,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Capex decreases modestly as the company transitions from initial investment to efficiency gains, consistent with the plan to improve planning accuracy and inventory management. Depreciation declines slightly with asset turnover.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ACCOUNTING",
          "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e",
          "E465fc9d694e8e046"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "660000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "730000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "0"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.06"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.11"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.28"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.015"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 3
        }
      ],
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "BASE",
      "from_year": 4,
      "phase_index": 2,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E3e5ca82d6bc43b43",
        "E3f96426225fc137e",
        "E465fc9d694e8e046",
        "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e",
        "E7bcdb84ddb2ea191"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Source-proposed noncapital assumptions; numerical basis is the current primary TTM reference.",
      "through_year": 6,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Capex stabilizes at a level sufficient to maintain and upgrade existing facilities, supporting the goal of expanding margins over time. Depreciation continues to decline as the asset base matures.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ACCOUNTING",
          "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e",
          "E75ad1cc5c8373226"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "640000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "710000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "0"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "-0.03"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.06"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.10"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.03"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "HIGH",
      "from_year": 1,
      "phase_index": 0,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E0cf8b1c698aa233e",
        "E465fc9d694e8e046",
        "E5e760f835e3d95d9",
        "E60c151f8ae35f113",
        "E697b07515bbd718c",
        "E9015f9e97c4b8837",
        "a5225ab0ba574365b18a7045ce798866a60278ed22d97ffece248bae2038ab16"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Source-proposed noncapital assumptions; numerical basis is the current primary TTM reference.",
      "through_year": 1,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Capex increases above TTM levels to support accelerated demand creation and potential capacity expansion in high-growth segments like running. Depreciation remains anchored to the reported TTM figure.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ACCOUNTING",
          "E5e760f835e3d95d9",
          "E2a4f40dfc228560e"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "720000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "747000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "0"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.07"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.10"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.28"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.02"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 2
        }
      ],
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "HIGH",
      "from_year": 2,
      "phase_index": 1,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E2a4f40dfc228560e",
        "E2f7a4be2c7446ab9",
        "E465fc9d694e8e046",
        "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Source-proposed noncapital assumptions; numerical basis is the current primary TTM reference.",
      "through_year": 3,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Capex remains elevated to sustain growth in performance and running categories, while efficiency gains begin to offset some investment needs. Depreciation declines slightly as new assets are integrated.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ACCOUNTING",
          "E3e5ca82d6bc43b43",
          "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "700000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "735000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "0"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.08"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.13"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.30"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.015"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.00"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 3
        }
      ],
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "HIGH",
      "from_year": 4,
      "phase_index": 2,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E3e5ca82d6bc43b43",
        "E3f96426225fc137e",
        "E465fc9d694e8e046",
        "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e",
        "E7bcdb84ddb2ea191"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Source-proposed noncapital assumptions; numerical basis is the current primary TTM reference.",
      "through_year": 6,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Capex normalizes to a level that supports continued growth and margin expansion, balancing investment with operational discipline. Depreciation continues its gradual decline.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "ACCOUNTING",
          "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e",
          "E75ad1cc5c8373226"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "680000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "720000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "0"
      }
    }
  ]
}

Published maturity assumptions

{
  "maturity": [
    {
      "basis": "The low scenario assumes a slower recovery where inventory cleanup and brand reset costs persist longer, requiring additional years to stabilize margins. Mature growth is capped at 2% to reflect a defensive market position, with higher marginal capital needs due to less efficient inventory turnover and higher cash reserves for working capital volatility.",
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_COMPANY_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "unknowns": [
        "Exact timing of full cost savings from facility closures",
        "Realized price and volume in Greater China beyond near-term guidance",
        "Impact of potential tariff changes on gross margin"
      ],
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e",
        "E75ad1cc5c8373226",
        "Ea741ccf89e4486ee",
        "E30f263865352eaf9"
      ],
      "terminal_growth": "0.02",
      "operating_margin": "0.09",
      "return_persistence": "PERSISTENT_OPERATING_MARGIN",
      "annual_revenue_growth_rates": [
        "0.02",
        "0.02",
        "0.02"
      ],
      "net_capital_per_added_revenue": "0.03",
      "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "0.01"
    },
    {
      "basis": "The base case assumes a steady return to historical growth rates as product innovation and distribution expansion take hold. The company needs these additional years to fully realize the benefits of the 'Sport Offense' strategy and facility reductions. Mature margins of 11% are coherent with the asset-light model, where capital intensity is low relative to revenue, and cash reserves are minimal due to efficient working capital management.",
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_COMPANY_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "BASE",
      "unknowns": [
        "Exact timing of full cost savings from facility closures",
        "Realized price and volume in Greater China beyond near-term guidance",
        "Impact of potential tariff changes on gross margin"
      ],
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e",
        "E75ad1cc5c8373226",
        "E136cefe77ae5db27",
        "E13536dd3d5069e1e"
      ],
      "terminal_growth": "0.03",
      "operating_margin": "0.11",
      "return_persistence": "PERSISTENT_OPERATING_MARGIN",
      "annual_revenue_growth_rates": [
        "0.03",
        "0.03",
        "0.03"
      ],
      "net_capital_per_added_revenue": "0.02",
      "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "0.00"
    },
    {
      "basis": "The high scenario reflects a successful execution of brand marketing and digital expansion, driving above-average growth. Additional years are needed to scale the new digital partnerships and product launches to their full potential. The higher mature margin of 13% is supported by operating leverage from fixed cost reductions and improved full-price realization, while capital intensity remains low due to the asset-light nature of the business.",
      "origin": "LOCAL_MODEL_COMPANY_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "HIGH",
      "unknowns": [
        "Exact timing of full cost savings from facility closures",
        "Realized price and volume in Greater China beyond near-term guidance",
        "Impact of potential tariff changes on gross margin"
      ],
      "evidence_ids": [
        "E6fcfd50e7a7d6b1e",
        "E75ad1cc5c8373226",
        "E80d43455feaf7316",
        "E30f263865352eaf9"
      ],
      "terminal_growth": "0.04",
      "operating_margin": "0.13",
      "return_persistence": "PERSISTENT_OPERATING_MARGIN",
      "annual_revenue_growth_rates": [
        "0.04",
        "0.04",
        "0.04"
      ],
      "net_capital_per_added_revenue": "0.02",
      "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "0.00"
    }
  ]
}

Published source-linked initiative observations

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      "name": "Brand Management",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "Investment in demand creation and brand marketing is expected to support key product launches and sports moments, contributing to revenue growth and margin improvement.",
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        }
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Brand management investments are embedded in the consolidated SG&A and demand creation expense lines. The path assumes these investments support revenue stabilization and margin expansion over time, as indicated by the guidance for gross margin expansion and SG&A discipline.",
      "initiative_id": "I08674ac801d7107a",
      "affected_fields": [
        "operating_margin",
        "revenue_growth"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "brand and marketplace reset",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "The initiative is active as long as the associated costs are being incurred and the benefits are not yet fully realized in the operating margin.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-07-15 20:43:49+00:00",
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      ],
      "setting_rule": "Costs associated with the brand and marketplace reset, including inventory obsolescence and severance, are embedded in the operating margin and working capital investment ratios for the initial phases. The initiative is considered active as these costs are being realized in FY26 and will drive margin benefits in FY27.",
      "initiative_id": "I127d0427c6c62848",
      "affected_fields": [
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        "working_capital_investment_ratio"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "elevate 50% of our Nike Direct owned fleet",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "Plan to elevate 50% of Nike Direct owned fleet by the end of the fiscal year.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-30",
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      ],
      "setting_rule": "Elevation of 50% of Nike Direct fleet by end of FY26 implies capital expenditure in FY26 and potential margin impact in FY27 due to higher fixed costs or improved efficiency. This is included in the net PPE investment ratio and operating margin assumptions.",
      "initiative_id": "I19c4f99b9aac676c",
      "affected_fields": [
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        "operating_margin"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "Product Management",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "Accelerating product innovation and reducing supply of certain footwear products to rebalance the mix of the footwear portfolio.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-07-15 20:43:49+00:00",
      "source_refs": [
        {
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        }
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Product management initiatives, including reducing supply of certain footwear products, are expected to rebalance the portfolio mix. This may impact revenue growth and working capital investment as inventory levels are adjusted.",
      "initiative_id": "I229381ae845dcef0",
      "affected_fields": [
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        "working_capital_investment_ratio"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "sportswear and Jordan",
      "state": "PROGRESS_REPORTED",
      "condition": "Sportswear and Jordan revenue is negative in FY27 with improvement in the back half.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-30",
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      ],
      "setting_rule": "Revenue decline in FY27 is driven by sportswear and Jordan weakness (E210f4b7a81ddbaaa). Cost reductions from inventory management (E08a1ca04738e59f0) improve margins.",
      "initiative_id": "I3422c5c37bb2098d",
      "affected_fields": [
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        "operating_margin"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "World Cup",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "Investment into the World Cup in Q1 FY27.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-30",
      "source_refs": [
        {
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      ],
      "setting_rule": "World Cup investment in Q1 FY27 is expected to drive high single-digit demand creation growth. This is included in the revenue growth and operating margin assumptions for FY27.",
      "initiative_id": "I34617662f516e8a5",
      "affected_fields": [
        "revenue_growth",
        "operating_margin"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "AeroFit product",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "AeroFit product shows up in running apparel in fall 2026.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-30",
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      ],
      "setting_rule": "AeroFit product launch in fall 2026 (E8669cdc9ac483d6c) contributes to revenue growth in FY28 and FY29.",
      "initiative_id": "I36abf0f6b66cc1df",
      "affected_fields": [
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      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "reducing the number of facilities we operate",
      "state": "PROGRESS_REPORTED",
      "condition": "Initial steps taken in Q3 and Q4 to reduce facilities.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-30",
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      "setting_rule": "Reduction in facilities (E13536dd3d5069e1e) lowers operating costs and reduces net PPE investment.",
      "initiative_id": "I3cade74a72f764cf",
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    },
    {
      "name": "rebalancing the product portfolio",
      "state": "DELIVERED",
      "condition": "Rebalancing the product portfolio, driving momentum and growth in performance, while reducing classic footwear franchises by more than $2 billion.",
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    },
    {
      "name": "fully focus on serving creators through its lifestyle business",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "Converse to fully focus on serving creators through its lifestyle business.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
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      "initiative_id": "I498302a706bb5ea3",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "Win Now actions",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "Win Now actions are on track to sunset by the end of this calendar year.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-09-16 09:04:33+00:00",
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      "initiative_id": "I4c0cd237fde45628",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "new digital partners",
      "state": "PROGRESS_REPORTED",
      "condition": "New digital partners added across five Southeast Asian countries.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-30",
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      "setting_rule": "New digital partners in Southeast Asia (E80d43455feaf7316) contribute to revenue growth in FY28 and FY29.",
      "initiative_id": "I6534ea049929d4f1",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "Mercurial",
      "state": "DELIVERED",
      "condition": "Mercurial became the fastest-selling 24-hour launch for cleated footwear.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-30",
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Published frozen forecast outcomes

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        "accounting_basis": "GAAP"
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      "relative_error": null
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}

Empirical operating-error envelope

Conditional operating-error evidence, separate from the scenario range. This is not a probability interval covering every valuation assumption. The published status, labels and limitations follow.

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        "subject_id": "LRCX",
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      "negative_economic_residual": false
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      "donor_ref": {
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        "subject_id": "JACK",
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      "negative_economic_residual": false
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    "issuers": 64,
    "meaning": "CONDITIONAL_EMPIRICAL_MODEL_ERROR_STRESS_NOT_TOTAL_FV_PROBABILITY",
    "donor_paths": 229
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}

Published changes and transitions

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            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "high"
          },
          {
            "after": "23.492897140169286380903867958799577553215450490295",
            "layer": "joint_funded_business",
            "before": "23.492897140169286380903867958799577553215450490295",
            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "low"
          },
          {
            "after": "37.251086273785351773248619386602175984276919963881",
            "layer": "joint_funded_business",
            "before": "37.251086273785351773248619386602175984276919963881",
            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "base"
          },
          {
            "after": "55.254958517718681218997044266803967788968103347477",
            "layer": "joint_funded_business",
            "before": "55.254958517718681218997044266803967788968103347477",
            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "high"
          }
        ],
        "meaning": "Difference for this saved revision; interacting effects are not independent additive initiative values.",
        "assumption_changes": []
      }
    },
    {
      "status": "NO_NEW_OPERATING_EVIDENCE",
      "event_id": "d42a73709beff64c6befcccffeb2fff0a10f8b1efdc551b6c8e191d79feeb98d",
      "source_ref": {
        "locator": {
          "relation": "company_news_article",
          "stock_id": "4ed97609-da0e-4971-b33d-18d9fc6e40e5",
          "article_uri": "9486546877"
        },
        "identity": "c10f206605652d0ea0d0f8a166276831ef2e6b54fed9c4b1ba677e4d22a91938",
        "revision": "d9efd6cb3dab99b79f95a5711714cd6ec50d8ca512960c69390c825e740d97bb",
        "source_id": 1175473,
        "body_chars": 1696,
        "body_sha256": "84678ac18831a341220e0e01224dd63ca484030fac5423ecacdaac63904bcade",
        "source_kind": "NEWS",
        "published_at": "2026-09-29 09:53:05+00:00",
        "body_truncated": false,
        "issuer_association": "confirmed"
      }
    },
    {
      "status": "RECALCULATED",
      "event_id": "78706370c6bb974ab7a292ec529a5f29001ba180ebcc5605fd3fe14fcc8c7cb7",
      "source_ref": {
        "locator": {
          "relation": "company_news_article",
          "stock_id": "4ed97609-da0e-4971-b33d-18d9fc6e40e5",
          "article_uri": "9486877060"
        },
        "identity": "0fd5405df73abc5c71bac2125941667befe8f8fec83bd99ff0bd403f1923f328",
        "revision": "2769f33a07327742490ca917c5948c8ba938dda89fa4f7db6076a0eaec4d1778",
        "source_id": 1175474,
        "body_chars": 2636,
        "body_sha256": "fc5f587660ee4eb4504196c257a28056e77231d3904cb4eaf3dd705186385185",
        "source_kind": "NEWS",
        "published_at": "2026-09-29 13:57:55+00:00",
        "body_truncated": false,
        "issuer_association": "confirmed"
      },
      "attribution": {
        "method": "SEQUENTIAL_EVENT_FULL_RECALCULATION",
        "values": [
          {
            "after": "25.097167839116602491441867414639819052631835289118",
            "layer": "existing_business",
            "before": "25.097167839116602491441867414639819052631835289118",
            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "low"
          },
          {
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            "layer": "existing_business",
            "before": "26.491465468472206856555603237716148273967255766063",
            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "base"
          },
          {
            "after": "27.885763097827811221669339060792477495302676243011",
            "layer": "existing_business",
            "before": "27.885763097827811221669339060792477495302676243011",
            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "high"
          },
          {
            "after": "23.492897140169286380903867958799577553215450490295",
            "layer": "joint_funded_business",
            "before": "23.492897140169286380903867958799577553215450490295",
            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "low"
          },
          {
            "after": "37.251086273785351773248619386602175984276919963881",
            "layer": "joint_funded_business",
            "before": "37.251086273785351773248619386602175984276919963881",
            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "base"
          },
          {
            "after": "55.254958517718681218997044266803967788968103347477",
            "layer": "joint_funded_business",
            "before": "55.254958517718681218997044266803967788968103347477",
            "change": "0E-48",
            "scenario": "high"
          }
        ],
        "meaning": "Difference for this saved revision; interacting effects are not independent additive initiative values.",
        "assumption_changes": []
      }
    },
    {
      "status": "RATES_UNCHANGED",
      "event_id": "rates"
    }
  ],
  "transitions": []
}

Additional published report fields

{
  "version": "living_fv_report_v1",
  "status": "CALCULATED_CONDITIONAL",
  "publication_status": "PENDING_REFRESH",
  "symbol": "NKE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "valuation_date": "2026-09-29",
  "reported_opening_date": "2026-05-31",
  "source_asof": "2026-09-29T16:21:44.354007+00:00",
  "published_at": "2026-09-29T16:32:34.224831+00:00",
  "following_status": "CURRENT",
  "updates_status": "CURRENT",
  "disclaimer": "Not investment advice.",
  "name": null,
  "hypothesis": {
    "reset": "Read the latest living report and discard overrides.",
    "targets": [
      "phase",
      "capital",
      "maturity",
      "rate"
    ],
    "version": "living_fv_user_hypothesis_v1",
    "independence": "User scenarios never replace the living company selection.",
    "phase_fields": {
      "years": "Years in this phase",
      "cash_tax_rate": "Cash tax rate",
      "revenue_growth": "Annual revenue growth",
      "operating_margin": "Operating profit margin",
      "net_ppe_investment_ratio": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
      "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
      "working_capital_investment_ratio": "Working capital investment / revenue"
    }
  }
}

Report identity and exact published values

Living version identifies the selected calculation.

Report id

776d84c0-d1f7-53f9-af32-5913c08b5560

Living version

64844533-d73a-55d6-96bc-6fcd3b1ec4b5

Value ranges

Key
existing_business
Label
Value of today’s operating business
Meaning
Current reported operating scale, with the stated tax, funding and return assumptions.
Low
25.097167839116602491441867414639819052631835289118
Base
26.491465468472206856555603237716148273967255766063
High
27.885763097827811221669339060792477495302676243011
Negative economic residual
No
Negative value meaning
A negative economic residual indicates a funding shortfall under these financing assumptions; it is not a negative tradable share price.
Key
joint_funded_business
Label
Value including the business growth plan
Meaning
The whole company forecast, including initiative effects and the investment needed to deliver them.
Low

Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.