NiSource (NI)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-15

$42.68+3.47%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NiSource’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.25 → 2.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
2026 EPS at $2.02-$2.07	A primary condition in NiSource's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.02 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.02 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.02 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 89c225c2-4958-4481-a85f-f45ef9c93dbb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. NiSource has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07. The company reported non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $1.22 for the first six months of 2026, supporting confidence in achieving the full-year guidance. The trajectory is delivering as management maintains this guidance across quarters. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Regulatory approvals for growth projects	Regulatory approvals support its growth plans in Indiana.	Under Pressure	Loss of key regulatory approvals for growth projects	Qualitative: Active IURC investigation & class action vs. Target: Maintain approvals IURC investigation and class action filed over August storm outages; $750M notes offering completed. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 8% YoY	A supporting condition in NiSource's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% YoY.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 6% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 3.45% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20263.449659 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 89c225c2-4958-4481-a85f-f45ef9c93dbb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.25

$2.25 → $2.25 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.25	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-07-25	$2.25	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-07-26	$2.25	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-07-27	$2.25	$7,591,859,030	16 / 5
2026-07-28	$2.25	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-07-29	$2.25	$7,591,859,030	16 / 5
2026-07-30	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-07-31	$2.25	$7,591,859,030	16 / 5
2026-08-01	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-02	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-03	$2.25	$7,591,859,030	16 / 5
2026-08-04	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-05	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-06	$2.25	$7,591,859,030	16 / 5
2026-08-07	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.25	$7,591,859,030	16 / 5
2026-08-09	$2.25	$7,591,859,030	16 / 5
2026-08-10	$2.25	$7,591,859,030	16 / 5
2026-08-12	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-13	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-14	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-16	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-17	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-18	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-19	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-08-20	$2.26	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-21	$2.26	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-22	$2.26	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-23	$2.26	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-24	$2.26	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-25	$2.26	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-26	$2.26	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-27	$2.26	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-28	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-29	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-30	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-08-31	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-01	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-02	$2.25	Unavailable	9 / 3
2026-09-03	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-04	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-05	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-06	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-07	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-08	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-09	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-10	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-11	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-12	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-13	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-14	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-15	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-16	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-17	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-18	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-19	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-20	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-21	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-22	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-23	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-24	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-25	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-26	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-27	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-28	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-29	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-09-30	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-01	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-02	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-03	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-04	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-05	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-06	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-07	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-08	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-09	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-10	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-11	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-12	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-13	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-14	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3
2026-10-15	$2.25	Unavailable	10 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	2	1
2026-06-01	12	2	1
2026-07-01	13	2	1
2026-08-01	13	3	1
2026-09-01	13	3	0
2026-10-01	13	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 13 · prior Jul 23

$50.00 → $48.00-4.0%

BMO CapitalSep 28 · prior Apr 20

$51.00 → $45.00-11.8%

$0$28.05$56.10

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

2026 EPS at $2.02-$2.07Diluted EPS: $0.09 per share
Regulatory approvals for growth projectsPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth near 8% YoYRevenue growth: 3.45%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NiSource outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on utility services. The current thesis is mixed, as management has reaffirmed guidance but faces challenges in execution quality and sector performance.

What's priced into NiSource

The market currently prices NI as expensive compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors are anticipating strong performance, despite the company's fragile earnings quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain stable in the near term, supported by management's reaffirmed earnings guidance and ongoing capital investments. However, there is a risk of negative sentiment if guidance is cut or if recent momentum continues to decline.

What NiSource hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could benefit utility stocks. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like ATO, UGI, and SWX will be crucial for NI's trajectory.