NATIONAL HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES INC (NHP)

NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$15.11+0.40%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NATIONAL HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Narrow net loss towards zero	A primary condition in NATIONAL HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES INC's published investment case. The stated target is net loss > -$4.3 million.	Broken	net loss worsens beyond -$4.3 million next quarter	Net income: $-5.386M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net loss > -$4.3 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026-5,386,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7bc8e03f-aeca-41e1-adb4-4f0f45957b66. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain positive operating income above $10M	NHP aims to improve profitability with operating income rising from -$6.6M to $10.1M in early 2026.	Broken	operating income falls below $10 million next quarter	Operating income: $5.086M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.1 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20265,086,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7bc8e03f-aeca-41e1-adb4-4f0f45957b66. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Same-store cash NOI growth of 13% to 16%	The company targets 13% to 16% growth in same-store cash NOI for 2026.	Intact	same-store cash NOI growth falls below 13% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.41B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$414,706,860	3 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$417,053,020	3 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$417,053,025	1 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$417,053,025	1 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$417,053,025	2 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$425,364,256	2 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$425,364,256	2 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	4
2026-06-01	4	4
2026-07-01	4	4
2026-08-01	4	4
2026-09-01	4	4
2026-10-01	5	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 13

$20.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$11.00$22.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Narrow net loss towards zeroPublished status: Broken
Sustain positive operating income above $10MPublished status: Broken
Same-store cash NOI growth of 13% to 16%Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NATIONAL HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story in the real estate sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company is navigating a volatile management landscape while trying to improve its financial performance.

What's priced into NATIONAL HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES INC

The market seems to be pricing in a stretched valuation, reflecting a low expectations gap. There is a premium compared to peers, indicating that investors may have high hopes for future improvements despite recent challenges.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has set ambitious targets for cash flow growth and reducing leverage, but execution has been mixed. Recent financial performance has been neutral, and while there is a low probability of missing expectations, the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry.

What NATIONAL HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES INC hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on whether NHP can maintain its growth trajectory and manage its expenses effectively. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance from sector peers could significantly influence outcomes.