Newmont (NEM)

NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-10-15

$118.60+2.43%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Newmont’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.59 → 10.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustainable dividend of about $1.1 billion yearly	Newmont makes about $3.1 billion in free cash flow yearly.	Intact	dividends fall significantly below $1.1 billion in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~1.1 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20260.26 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7b045ed9-ce5d-4531-8c5e-93dab008e761. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividends declared were $0.26 per share in 2026-Q1 and $0.25 per share in 2025-Q3, consistent with management's commitment to a sustainable cash dividend of approximately $1.1 billion annually. The dividend per share is supported by ongoing share repurchases, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow of at least $3.1 billion	Newmont makes about $3.1 billion in free cash flow yearly.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $3.1 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $2.205B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.1 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20262,205,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Newmont has generated record free cash flow of $3.1 billion in 2026-Q1 and $7.3 billion in 2025, while returning $3.4 billion to shareholders in 2025. Management has consistently emphasized this framework and the financial results show delivering progress on capital allocation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
No major profit impact from Ghana mining rules	A primary condition in Newmont's published investment case. The stated target is No significant profit loss from Ghana mining changes.	Under Pressure	Ghana mining rules cause major profit or operation loss	Qualitative: Ghana directive to shift ops by Dec 2026 Ghana directed Newmont to shift mining ops to local firms by December 2026, posing a threat to operations. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustaining capital spend of about $1.95 billion	Newmont makes about $3.1 billion in free cash flow yearly.	Intact	sustaining capital spend falls well below $1.95 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $719M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~1.95 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 2026719,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Sustaining capital spend guidance remains steady at approximately $1.95 billion for 2026 and was $1.8 billion in 2025. Management has maintained this elevated sustaining capital focus to support critical infrastructure and tailings solutions, consistent with the stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.43

$10.57 → $10.43 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$28.68B

$29.06B → $28.68B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.57	$29,057,865,950	16 / 14
2026-07-25	$10.63	$29,279,138,136	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$10.64	$29,066,115,916	11 / 12
2026-07-27	$10.57	$29,059,940,250	16 / 16
2026-07-28	$10.64	$29,066,115,916	11 / 12
2026-07-29	$10.16	$28,680,363,790	15 / 16
2026-07-30	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	11 / 12
2026-07-31	$10.16	$28,680,363,790	15 / 16
2026-08-01	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	11 / 12
2026-08-02	$10.59	$28,965,889,320	15 / 18
2026-08-03	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-04	$10.59	$28,965,889,320	15 / 18
2026-08-05	$10.55	$28,965,889,320	15 / 18
2026-08-06	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-07	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-08	$10.55	$28,965,889,320	15 / 18
2026-08-09	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-10	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-12	$10.56	$28,890,611,550	16 / 18
2026-08-13	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-14	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-15	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-16	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-17	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-18	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-19	$10.65	$28,989,104,164	12 / 13
2026-08-20	$10.67	$28,992,205,464	11 / 14
2026-08-21	$10.67	$28,992,205,464	11 / 14
2026-08-22	$10.67	$28,992,205,464	11 / 14
2026-08-23	$10.67	$28,992,205,464	11 / 14
2026-08-24	$10.67	$28,992,205,464	11 / 14
2026-08-25	$10.67	$28,992,205,464	11 / 14
2026-08-26	$10.67	$28,992,205,464	10 / 13
2026-08-27	$10.67	$28,992,205,464	10 / 13
2026-08-28	$10.67	$28,992,205,464	10 / 13
2026-08-29	$10.67	$28,992,228,536	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$10.67	$28,992,228,536	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$10.67	$28,992,228,536	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$10.67	$28,992,228,536	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$10.67	$28,992,389,583	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$10.67	$28,992,389,583	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$10.67	$28,992,389,583	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$10.67	$28,992,389,583	10 / 12
2026-09-06	$10.67	$28,992,389,583	10 / 13
2026-09-07	$10.67	$28,992,389,583	10 / 13
2026-09-08	$10.67	$28,992,389,583	10 / 13
2026-09-09	$10.67	$28,992,389,583	10 / 13
2026-09-10	$10.59	$28,900,023,950	10 / 13
2026-09-11	$10.59	$28,900,023,950	10 / 13
2026-09-12	$10.59	$28,900,023,950	10 / 13
2026-09-13	$10.59	$28,900,023,950	10 / 13
2026-09-14	$10.59	$28,900,023,950	10 / 13
2026-09-15	$10.59	$28,970,003,596	10 / 13
2026-09-16	$10.63	$29,079,921,644	10 / 13
2026-09-17	$10.58	$28,995,397,834	10 / 13
2026-09-18	$10.58	$28,995,397,834	10 / 13
2026-09-19	$10.58	$28,995,397,834	10 / 13
2026-09-20	$10.58	$28,995,397,834	11 / 14
2026-09-21	$10.58	$28,995,397,834	11 / 14
2026-09-22	$10.61	$28,995,384,748	11 / 14
2026-09-23	$10.61	$28,995,384,748	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$10.61	$28,995,384,748	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$10.60	$28,995,384,748	10 / 13
2026-09-26	$10.60	$28,983,742,736	10 / 13
2026-09-27	$10.60	$28,983,742,736	10 / 13
2026-09-28	$10.60	$28,983,742,736	10 / 13
2026-09-29	$10.59	$28,983,742,736	10 / 13
2026-09-30	$10.59	$28,983,742,736	10 / 13
2026-10-01	$10.57	$28,946,632,117	10 / 13
2026-10-02	$10.57	$28,946,632,117	10 / 13
2026-10-03	$10.57	$28,888,079,934	10 / 13
2026-10-04	$10.57	$28,888,079,934	10 / 13
2026-10-05	$10.57	$28,888,079,934	10 / 13
2026-10-06	$10.57	$28,888,079,934	10 / 13
2026-10-07	$10.57	$28,888,079,934	10 / 13
2026-10-08	$10.57	$28,888,079,934	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$10.50	$28,758,309,753	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$10.50	$28,758,309,753	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$10.43	$28,684,357,372	11 / 13
2026-10-12	$10.43	$28,684,357,372	11 / 13
2026-10-13	$10.43	$28,684,357,372	11 / 13
2026-10-14	$10.43	$28,684,357,372	11 / 12
2026-10-15	$10.43	$28,684,357,372	11 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	18	3	2
2026-06-01	18	3	1
2026-07-01	20	3	1
2026-08-01	20	2	2
2026-09-01	20	2	1
2026-10-01	20	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustainable dividend of about $1.1 billion yearlyDividend per share: $0.26 per share
Free cash flow of at least $3.1 billionFree cash flow: $2.205B
No major profit impact from Ghana mining rulesPublished status: Under Pressure
Sustaining capital spend of about $1.95 billionCapital expenditures: $719M

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Newmont outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on capital allocation and sustainable dividends. The current thesis is mixed, as recent performance has lagged behind peers while maintaining a low miss risk.

What's priced into Newmont

The market currently prices NEM as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is a low level of fragility in the stock, indicating that the market does not anticipate significant negative surprises.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain stable, supported by robust earnings quality and a commitment to capital allocation. However, recent performance has declined, and management's execution will be crucial in the near term.

What Newmont hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on capital priorities. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and sector performance from peers will significantly impact NEM's trajectory.