NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-08-31
Reading NEM? Create a free portfolio, then add this holding for ongoing Reports and tracking. Track it in a free portfolio. No credit card.
Create your account →Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
Newmont makes about $3.1 billion in free cash flow yearly. It plans to spend $1.95 billion on keeping mines running in 2026. The company pays $1.1 billion in dividends yearly. It has a strong buyback plan of $6 billion. These show good money use and steady cash flow.
Newmont faces risks from Ghana's new mining rules. These could hurt profits. The recent stock drop shows investors worry about growth and risks.
The stock trades about 32% below our fair value near $140. Analysts expect about 14% revenue growth. The price reflects these views fairly.
Breaks if: dividends fall significantly below $1.1 billion in FY26
Commit to returning capital to shareholders through a sustainable cash dividend of approximately $1.1 billion per year with per share growth supported by share repurchases.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on materials. The current thesis state is weakened due to recent financial performance dropping relative to industry peers, although it remains cheap compared to them.
The market currently prices NEM as cheap relative to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may be anticipating some challenges ahead.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given the robust earnings quality and mixed management priorities. However, near-term risks are elevated, with a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although the industry has seen higher miss rates recently.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on capital allocation and sustaining investments. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers will significantly influence NEM's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read on NEM. However, rising costs could impact profitability and capital allocation, posing a threat to the thesis.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividends declared were $0.26 per share in 2026-Q1 and $0.25 per share in 2025-Q3, consistent with management's commitment to a sustainable cash dividend of approximately $1.1 billion annually. The dividend per share is supported by ongoing share repurchases, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Newmont is committed to returning capital to shareholders through a sustainable cash dividend of $1.1 billion per year.”
“Newmont is committed to returning capital to shareholders through a sustainable cash dividend of $1.1 billion per year.”
“Declared a dividend of $0.25 per share for the third quarter of 2025.”
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $3.1 billion in FY26
Implement and deliver on an enhanced capital allocation framework prioritizing sustaining capital, dividends, disciplined development capital, optimized capital structure, and share repurchases.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Newmont has generated record free cash flow of $3.1 billion in 2026-Q1 and $7.3 billion in 2025, while returning $3.4 billion to shareholders in 2025. Management has consistently emphasized this framework and the financial results show delivering progress on capital allocation priorities.
“Newmont announced an enhanced capital allocation framework, designed to be sustainable through the commodity cycle while maximizing total return of capital to shareholders.”
“Newmont announced an enhanced capital allocation framework, designed to be sustainable through the commodity cycle while maximizing total return of capital to shareholders.”
“Newmont announced an enhanced capital allocation framework, designed to be sustainable through the commodity cycle while maximizing total return of capital to shareholders.”
Breaks if: Ghana mining rules cause major profit or operation loss
Breaks if: sustaining capital spend falls well below $1.95 billion in FY26
Continue elevated sustaining capital spend to support critical infrastructure and tailings solutions, ensuring long-term production capacity and asset integrity.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Sustaining capital spend guidance remains steady at approximately $1.95 billion for 2026 and was $1.8 billion in 2025. Management has maintained this elevated sustaining capital focus to support critical infrastructure and tailings solutions, consistent with the stated priorities.
“Newmont expects to spend $1.95 billion in 2026 in sustaining capital through targeted investments in critical infrastructure.”
“Sustaining capital spend of approximately $1.95 billion to advance critical tailings facility work at Cadia and Boddington.”
“Newmont has improved its 2025 capital guidance, reflecting lower sustaining and development capital spend.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, NEM's performance will depend on effective management execution and favorable market conditions. Not investment advice.
