NextEra Energy (NEE)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$79.80+1.06%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NextEra Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.39 → 4.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Compound annual EPS growth of 8%+ through 2032	The company targets 8%+ EPS growth through 2032.	Broken	EPS CAGR falls below 8% through 2032	Diluted EPS growth: 53.06% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% CAGR. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 202653.061224 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 103859b1-5a9a-4a3d-9af1-9ad09b6e898d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterates an 8%+ compound annual growth rate in adjusted EPS through 2032 and 2035 off the 2025 base of $3.71. Recent quarterly EPS of $1.04 in 2026-Q1 and $1.50 in 2026-Q2 support progress toward this multi-year growth target, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Adjusted EPS at the high end of $3.92 to $4.02 range	NextEra Energy aims for adjusted EPS near $4.02 in 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $3.92 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. NextEra Energy has consistently guided 2026 adjusted earnings per share between $3.92 and $4.02, targeting the high end. This aligns with reported diluted EPS of $1.04 in 2026-Q1 and $1.50 in 2026-Q2, indicating the company is delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Manage political interference claims and legal risks	A supporting condition in NextEra Energy's published investment case. The stated target is No major new legal settlements.	Intact	New legal settlements exceeding $150 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth supported by Dominion acquisition and data center demand	The Dominion acquisition supports growth and data center demand.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 4.69% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=21% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20264.6875 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 103859b1-5a9a-4a3d-9af1-9ad09b6e898d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterates an 8%+ compound annual growth rate in adjusted EPS through 2032 and 2035 off the 2025 base of $3.71. Recent quarterly EPS of $1.04 in 2026-Q1 and $1.50 in 2026-Q2 support progress toward this multi-year growth target, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.38

$4.40 → $4.38 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$33.74B

$33.96B → $33.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.40	$33,955,008,065	14 / 14
2026-07-25	$4.40	$33,955,008,065	14 / 14
2026-07-26	$4.40	$33,955,729,979	14 / 14
2026-07-27	$4.40	$34,552,937,340	23 / 17
2026-07-28	$4.40	$33,955,729,979	14 / 13
2026-07-29	$4.42	$34,643,789,550	23 / 16
2026-07-30	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-07-31	$4.42	$34,643,789,550	23 / 16
2026-08-01	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-02	$4.42	$34,643,789,550	23 / 16
2026-08-03	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-04	$4.42	$34,643,789,550	23 / 16
2026-08-05	$4.42	$34,643,789,550	23 / 16
2026-08-06	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-07	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-08	$4.42	$34,589,089,550	23 / 16
2026-08-09	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-10	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-12	$4.42	$34,602,938,060	23 / 16
2026-08-13	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-14	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-15	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-16	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-17	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	15 / 13
2026-08-18	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	14 / 12
2026-08-19	$4.41	$33,971,337,343	14 / 12
2026-08-20	$4.40	$34,327,566,401	14 / 12
2026-08-21	$4.40	$34,327,566,401	14 / 12
2026-08-22	$4.40	$34,327,835,130	14 / 12
2026-08-23	$4.40	$34,327,835,130	14 / 12
2026-08-24	$4.40	$34,327,835,130	14 / 12
2026-08-25	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-08-26	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-08-27	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-08-28	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-08-29	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-08-30	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-08-31	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-01	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-02	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-03	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-04	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-05	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-06	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-07	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-08	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-09	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-10	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-11	$4.39	$33,947,369,171	14 / 12
2026-09-12	$4.39	$33,947,369,173	14 / 12
2026-09-13	$4.39	$33,947,369,173	14 / 12
2026-09-14	$4.39	$33,947,369,173	13 / 12
2026-09-15	$4.39	$33,947,369,173	13 / 12
2026-09-16	$4.39	$33,947,402,503	13 / 12
2026-09-17	$4.39	$33,947,402,503	13 / 12
2026-09-18	$4.39	$33,947,402,503	13 / 12
2026-09-19	$4.39	$33,947,402,503	13 / 12
2026-09-20	$4.39	$33,947,156,411	13 / 12
2026-09-21	$4.39	$33,947,156,411	13 / 12
2026-09-22	$4.39	$33,947,156,411	13 / 12
2026-09-23	$4.39	$33,947,156,411	13 / 12
2026-09-24	$4.39	$33,947,156,411	13 / 12
2026-09-25	$4.39	$33,800,144,383	14 / 12
2026-09-26	$4.39	$33,800,144,383	14 / 12
2026-09-27	$4.39	$33,800,144,383	14 / 12
2026-09-28	$4.39	$33,800,144,383	14 / 12
2026-09-29	$4.39	$33,800,144,383	14 / 12
2026-09-30	$4.39	$33,800,144,383	14 / 12
2026-10-01	$4.39	$33,800,136,160	14 / 12
2026-10-02	$4.39	$33,800,136,160	14 / 12
2026-10-03	$4.33	$33,800,136,160	14 / 12
2026-10-04	$4.39	$33,800,136,160	14 / 12
2026-10-05	$4.39	$33,800,136,160	14 / 12
2026-10-06	$4.39	$33,800,136,160	14 / 12
2026-10-07	$4.39	$33,800,136,160	14 / 12
2026-10-08	$4.39	$33,800,136,160	14 / 12
2026-10-09	$4.39	$33,798,144,383	14 / 12
2026-10-10	$4.39	$33,798,144,383	14 / 12
2026-10-11	$4.39	$33,798,144,383	14 / 12
2026-10-12	$4.39	$33,798,144,383	14 / 12
2026-10-13	$4.39	$33,798,144,383	14 / 12
2026-10-14	$4.39	$33,780,198,811	14 / 12
2026-10-15	$4.38	$33,743,897,696	14 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	7	1
2026-06-01	14	7	1
2026-07-01	14	7	1
2026-08-01	13	7	1
2026-09-01	14	7	1
2026-10-01	15	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 14 · prior Aug 21

$114.00 → $110.00-3.5%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 6 · prior Jul 27

$95.00 → $80.00-15.8%

Seaport GlobalOct 2

$56.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$62.70$125.40

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Compound annual EPS growth of 8%+ through 2032Published status: Broken
Adjusted EPS at the high end of $3.92 to $4.02 rangePublished status: Under Pressure
Manage political interference claims and legal risksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth supported by Dominion acquisition and data center demandRevenue growth: 4.69%

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NextEra Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's commitment to earnings targets despite sector headwinds.

What's priced into NextEra Energy

The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, reflecting a justified valuation that is considered cheap compared to peers. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential positive developments.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with management on track to meet its earnings per share targets for 2026. However, there is a mixed outlook on achieving the longer-term growth goal of 8%+ EPS growth through 2032.

What NextEra Energy hinges on

Key factors for the future include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector peers like SO, DUK, and AEP. Additionally, any potential guidance cuts from management could negatively impact sentiment.