NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Compound annual EPS growth of 8%+ through 2032: EPS CAGR 9.0% vs 8.0% target.
NextEra Energy aims for adjusted EPS near $4.02 in 2026. The company targets 8%+ EPS growth through 2032. The Dominion acquisition supports growth and data center demand. Profit and revenue growth should stay strong.
The recent political settlement may hurt reputation and operations. The stock is expensive with fragile quality signals. Growth could slow if integration or market conditions worsen.
The price is about 11% above our fair value near $80. Analysts expect 21% revenue growth. Our fair value is 25% below the Street median, showing some caution.
Breaks if: EPS CAGR falls below 8% through 2032
Sustain a compound annual growth rate of adjusted earnings per share of 8% or more annually through 2032 and target the same growth rate from 2032 through 2035.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
NextEra Energy (NEE) represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis is intact but faces challenges from sector dynamics and execution quality.
The market appears to price NEE as cheap compared to peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, there is a fragility due to weak execution quality, which suggests that the stock is not fully insulated from potential negative developments.
Management is on track to target the high end of its EPS guidance for 2026, which aligns with its growth ambitions. However, the mixed status of achieving 8%+ EPS growth through 2032 indicates some uncertainty in long-term performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SO, DUK, and AEP. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for NEE. Conversely, any guidance cuts from NEE or misses from sector peers could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the target high end of EPS range for 2026. Securing funding for 10 GW gas projects enhances revenue potential. There are no current threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterates the goal of 8%+ compound annual growth in adjusted EPS through 2032 and beyond. The 2025 base adjusted EPS was $3.71, and guidance supports this growth trajectory, indicating ongoing delivery on this long-term growth priority.
“We expect to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8%+ through 2032 and are targeting the same from 2032 through 2035.”
“NextEra Energy expects to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8%+ through 2032 and is targeting the same from 2032 through 2035.”
“NextEra Energy also continues to expect a compound annual growth rate in adjusted earnings per share of 8%+ annually through 2032.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.92 in FY26
Continue to achieve adjusted earnings per share in the range of $3.92 to $4.02 for 2026, targeting the high end of that range.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. NextEra Energy's guidance for 2026 adjusted EPS remains in the range of $3.92 to $4.02, with management targeting the high end. This aligns with the trajectory of adjusted EPS growth observed in quarterly results, indicating delivery on this priority.
“NextEra Energy continues to expect 2026 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.92 to $4.02 and is targeting the high end of that range.”
“NextEra Energy continues to expect 2026 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.92 to $4.02 and is targeting the high end of that range.”
“NextEra Energy continues to expect 2026 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.92 to $4.02.”
Breaks if: New legal settlements exceeding $150 million
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next year
Sustain a compound annual growth rate of adjusted earnings per share of 8% or more annually through 2032 and target the same growth rate from 2032 through 2035.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterates the goal of 8%+ compound annual growth in adjusted EPS through 2032 and beyond. The 2025 base adjusted EPS was $3.71, and guidance supports this growth trajectory, indicating ongoing delivery on this long-term growth priority.
“We expect to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8%+ through 2032 and are targeting the same from 2032 through 2035.”
“NextEra Energy expects to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8%+ through 2032 and is targeting the same from 2032 through 2035.”
“NextEra Energy also continues to expect a compound annual growth rate in adjusted earnings per share of 8%+ annually through 2032.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, NEE's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and execute on its growth priorities. Not investment advice.
