Nordson Corporation (NDSN)

NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$322.31-1.97%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nordson Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.92 → 12.97 EPS · FY ending Oct 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage new debt from commercial paper program	A supporting condition in Nordson Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is No material weakening of credit profile.	Intact	Debt causes credit rating downgrade or liquidity issues	No downgrade or liquidity issues reported New $1.2B CP program established; earnings beats and dividend hikes indicate strong cash flow and stable credit profile. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS of at least $11.3 per share	Earnings per share target is $11.3 for fiscal 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $10.8 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.73 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.3 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 20, 20262.73 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 370f1ef7-c9be-4949-8c06-520999cad622. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance increased from $10.80 in 2025-Q4 to $11.80 in 2026-Q3, while actual diluted EPS rose from $2.22 in 2025-Q3 to $2.73 in 2026-Q3. Management is delivering improved earnings and raising guidance accordingly. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating income near $197 million in Q2 FY26	Operating income stays near $197 million.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls well below $166 million in Q2 FY26	Operating income: $223.092M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$197 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 20, 2026223,092,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 370f1ef7-c9be-4949-8c06-520999cad622. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year revenue of at least $2.93 billion	A primary condition in Nordson Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.93 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.83 billion in FY26	Revenue: $817.667M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.93 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 20, 2026817,667,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 370f1ef7-c9be-4949-8c06-520999cad622. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $2.83B in 2025-Q4 to $3.04B in 2026-Q3, with actual quarterly revenue growing from $741.5M in 2025-Q3 to $817.7M in 2026-Q3. Management is delivering on revenue growth and raising guidance accordingly. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-10-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.97

$12.59 → $12.97 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.21B

$3.14B → $3.21B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.59	$3,139,151,600	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$12.59	$3,139,151,600	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$12.59	$3,139,151,600	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$12.59	$3,139,151,600	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$12.59	$3,139,151,600	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$12.59	$3,139,151,600	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$12.59	$3,139,151,600	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$12.59	$3,139,151,600	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$12.59	$3,139,151,600	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$12.41	$3,140,012,500	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$12.55	$3,140,012,500	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$12.55	$3,140,012,500	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$12.55	$3,140,012,500	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$12.55	$3,140,012,500	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$12.60	$3,143,328,571	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$12.63	$3,152,585,714	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$12.74	$3,178,471,429	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$12.92	$3,205,763,143	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$12.92	$3,205,757,143	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$12.97	$3,215,716,667	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$12.97	$3,214,533,333	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$12.97	$3,214,533,333	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	4	0
2026-06-01	5	4	1
2026-07-01	5	3	1
2026-08-01	4	3	1
2026-09-01	4	3	1
2026-10-01	4	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS of at least $11.3 per shareDiluted EPS: $2.73 per share
Operating income near $197 million in Q2 FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Full year revenue of at least $2.93 billionRevenue: $817.667M

Next proof point

Dec 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nordson Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, as management has consistently raised guidance and delivered on financial performance.

What's priced into Nordson Corporation

The valuation is considered stretched compared to peers, indicating that the market has high expectations for NDSN's performance. There is a low expectations gap, suggesting that the current price reflects a premium for its recent successes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management is on track with its priorities for revenue and earnings growth. However, there is a near-term risk of missing guidance, given the recent performance of industry peers.

What Nordson Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for NDSN. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose a risk to NDSN's momentum.