Mueller Water Products (MWA)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.26-0.04%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mueller Water Products’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	320.78M
EPS	—	0.293
FY 2026 · Annual
Capital expenditure	$60M–$65M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.5B
EPS	—	1.57
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	1.573

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share remains at $0.07	The company keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.07 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.07	Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.07 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2f09c75f-933a-47a4-ba26-f7096e5f875e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to at least $80.4M in Q2 FY26	Operating income rose from $69.9M to $80.4M in one year.	Intact	operating income falls below $69.9M in Q2 FY26	Operating income: $80.6M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $80.4M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202680,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2f09c75f-933a-47a4-ba26-f7096e5f875e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $1.48B in FY26	A primary condition in Mueller Water Products's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.48B.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.41B in FY26	Revenue: $395.9M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.48B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026395,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2f09c75f-933a-47a4-ba26-f7096e5f875e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	3	0
2026-06-01	2	3	1
2026-07-01	2	3	1
2026-08-01	2	3	1
2026-09-01	2	3	2
2026-10-01	2	2	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 9 · prior May 6

$29.00 → $24.00-17.2%

$0$15.95$31.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share remains at $0.07Dividend per share: $0.07 per share
Operating income improves to at least $80.4M in Q2 FY26Operating income: $80.6M
Revenue grows to about $1.48B in FY26Revenue: $395.9M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mueller Water Products outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MWA is a profitable industrial business with a growth-and-margin improvement thesis, rather than a turnaround. The thesis is currently intact and has strengthened from mildly favorable to favorable, though confidence is medium and management execution is mixed.

What's priced into Mueller Water Products

The valuation evidence describes MWA as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The pricing signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent performance is strong: third-quarter sales, adjusted EBITDA margin, and operating income were higher than a year earlier, while SG&A expenses were lower. Management has repeatedly emphasized growth, margins, efficiency, and capacity investment, with evidence of progress but mixed execution overall. Near term, sector weakness and a possible guidance cut are risks, despite a low miss-risk reading.

What Mueller Water Products hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued sales growth, margin expansion, and effective use of increased capacity spending. Sector bellwethers such as GEV, PH, and TT offer signals: continued strong results could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. A guidance cut on MWA’s next call would be a meaningful negative.

Bottom line

For the 1-to-3-year view, MWA’s operating progress keeps the long-term thesis intact, and the valuation is cheap versus peers. The main uncertainties are whether execution continues and whether sector headwinds ease. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.