Mettler Toledo (MTD)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-15

$1622.29-1.02%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mettler Toledo’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

51.64 → 51.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS growth of 8% to 10% in 2026	A primary condition in Mettler Toledo's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY adjusted EPS growth.	Intact	adjusted EPS growth falls below 8% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance increased from $45.35-$46.00 in 2025-Q3 to $47.15-$47.50 in 2026-Q2, representing growth of about 10% to 11%. Local currency sales growth guidance remained steady at approximately 4% to 5%. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Local currency sales growth of 4% in 2026	Sales rise steadily near 4% in local currency.	Intact	local currency sales growth falls below 3% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Local currency sales grew from approximately 3% in 2026-Q1 to 6% in 2026-Q2, with 4% growth excluding acquisitions and tariff refunds. Management's guidance for about 4% local currency sales growth in 2026 is consistent with recent sales performance, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Expansion of Spinnaker sales and marketing program	A supporting condition in Mettler Toledo's published investment case. The stated target is sustain expansion of Spinnaker program through FY26.	Intact	Spinnaker program expansion stalls or reverses in FY26	Qualitative: AI-driven growth advances Spinnaker expansion October 2026 news highlights AI-driven growth aligning with Spinnaker program expansion, strongly reinforcing the thesis driver. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently highlights the Spinnaker program as a key driver of growth and margin expansion. While direct sales impact is not separately quantified, overall revenue and adjusted EPS growth in recent quarters align with management's emphasis on this initiative, indicating progress though specific attribution is limited. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$51.70

$51.28 → $51.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.44B

$4.43B → $4.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$51.28	$4,432,660,740	13 / 12
2026-07-25	$51.13	$4,431,427,090	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$51.28	$4,432,660,740	13 / 12
2026-07-27	$51.13	$4,431,427,090	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$51.13	$4,431,427,090	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$51.28	$4,432,660,740	13 / 12
2026-07-30	$51.13	$4,431,427,090	7 / 9
2026-07-31	$51.18	$4,429,268,500	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$51.12	$4,431,427,090	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$51.48	$4,437,223,030	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$51.48	$4,437,223,030	12 / 11
2026-08-04	$51.48	$4,437,223,030	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$51.69	$4,437,721,040	12 / 11
2026-08-07	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-09	$51.69	$4,437,721,040	12 / 11
2026-08-10	$51.69	$4,437,721,040	12 / 11
2026-08-12	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$51.69	$4,437,721,040	12 / 11
2026-08-14	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$51.33	$4,439,444,696	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$51.63	$4,439,989,130	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$51.66	$4,438,586,845	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$51.65	$4,438,289,784	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$51.65	$4,438,289,784	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$51.65	$4,438,289,784	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$51.65	$4,438,289,784	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$51.65	$4,438,289,784	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$51.65	$4,438,289,784	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$51.65	$4,438,289,784	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$51.64	$4,438,569,780	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$51.68	$4,440,483,928	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$51.68	$4,440,483,928	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$51.68	$4,440,483,928	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$51.68	$4,440,483,928	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$51.68	$4,440,483,928	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$51.68	$4,440,817,261	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$51.72	$4,440,817,261	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$51.72	$4,443,082,173	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$51.71	$4,443,082,173	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$51.71	$4,443,082,173	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$51.71	$4,443,082,173	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$51.71	$4,443,082,173	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$51.71	$4,443,353,025	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$51.71	$4,443,353,025	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$51.70	$4,443,342,306	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	7	0
2026-06-01	7	6	0
2026-07-01	7	6	1
2026-08-01	5	6	1
2026-09-01	5	8	2
2026-10-01	5	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Aug 4

$1450.00 → $1575.00+8.6%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Aug 3

$1575.00 → $1700.00+7.9%

$0$935.00$1870.00

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS growth of 8% to 10% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Local currency sales growth of 4% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mettler Toledo outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MTD represents a durable compounder in the healthcare sector. The current thesis is stable, supported by consistent management priorities and recent strong financial results.

What's priced into Mettler Toledo

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with MTD being seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that while the stock is not overly expensive, it may not fully reflect its recent performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth of 8% to 10% and local currency sales growth of about 4%. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk of missing expectations given the broader industry context.

What Mettler Toledo hinges on

The thesis hinges on maintaining credibility with guidance and the overall health of the job market, which could impact cyclical names like MTD. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders could provide momentum for MTD.