Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MSCI Inc. (MSCI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-15
$569.08-1.05%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
22.48 → 22.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate free cash flow around $1.5 billion | Free cash flow is solid, guided at $1.5 billion for 2026. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $1.4 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $355.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.47B to $1.53B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 2026355,800,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder, focusing on steady growth in subscription and asset-based fees. The current thesis state is intact, although it faces some near-term risks.
The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium. The market seems to expect stable performance, but there is a slight expectations gap indicating some caution.
Management is focused on driving growth in recurring revenues and maintaining disciplined capital allocation. Recent financial performance shows positive trends, but there are mixed results in managing operating expenses.
The thesis hinges on MSCI's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector headwinds. Key factors include the performance of sector peers and any changes in interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Overall, MSCI's fundamentals appear stable, but investors should monitor external factors that could impact performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain operating margin between 18% and 20% | A primary condition in MSCI Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 18% to 20%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 16% in FY26 | Operating margin: 56.23% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 18% to 20%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 202656.228374 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bc713733-6138-4fe0-b537-7d95fd658039. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage regulatory risks in key markets | Regulatory delays have eased some near-term risks. | Under Pressure | MSCI downgrades or reclassifies major markets reducing revenue materially | Qualitative: MSCI proposed downgrading Indonesia to standalone market status News reports MSCI proposed downgrading Indonesia to standalone market status, creating potential index reclassification and fee headwinds. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 11% YoY | A primary condition in MSCI Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 12.21% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 202612.20701 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bc713733-6138-4fe0-b537-7d95fd658039. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.49 → $22.46 · observed estimates
$3.82B → $3.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.49 | $3,822,280,495 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.47 | $3,822,190,340 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $22.47 | $3,822,190,340 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.47 | $3,822,190,340 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $22.47 | $3,822,640,070 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $22.47 | $3,822,195,260 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $22.47 | $3,822,640,070 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $22.48 | $3,822,195,260 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.48 | $3,822,195,260 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $22.50 | $3,821,661,920 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $22.50 | $3,821,661,920 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $22.50 | $3,821,661,920 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $22.48 | $3,817,983,820 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $22.48 | $3,817,958,695 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $22.48 | $3,817,977,445 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $22.48 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $22.48 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $22.48 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $22.48 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $22.47 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $22.47 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $22.47 | $3,818,977,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $22.47 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $22.48 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $22.48 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $22.48 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $22.46 | $3,819,252,570 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $22.48 | $3,822,016,701 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $22.48 | $3,823,258,326 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $22.49 | $3,824,820,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $22.48 | $3,824,445,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $22.48 | $3,824,445,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $22.48 | $3,824,445,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $22.50 | $3,823,945,826 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $22.49 | $3,824,210,321 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $22.46 | $3,824,167,458 | 11 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Oct 20, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.