Marsh McLennan (MRSH)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$188.35+0.97%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Marsh McLennan’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.40 → 11.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase adjusted EPS by at least 8% to $3.29 in fiscal year 2026	Adjusted EPS rises 8% to $3.29.	Intact	adjusted EPS growth falls below 5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain strong balance sheet despite new credit agreement	A supporting condition in Marsh McLennan's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain leverage and liquidity within historical ranges.	Intact	Leverage or liquidity deteriorates materially beyond historical norms	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Optimize global operating model through Thrive program	A supporting condition in Marsh McLennan's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or improve operating efficiency.	Intact	No progress or setbacks in Thrive program efficiency gains by FY26	Thrive savings target $600M through 2028 vs FY26 efficiency target Marsh outlined $600M Thrive savings target through 2028 and reaffirmed 2026 growth outlook after beating Q3 estimates. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least 10% revenue growth in fiscal year 2026	A primary condition in Marsh McLennan's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 8.06% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 15, 20268.061723 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f24d584a-5f91-436a-93d9-6fa3b844f8f5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.42

$11.38 → $11.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$30.00B

$29.95B → $30.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.38	$29,952,485,699	14 / 13
2026-07-25	$11.39	$29,947,798,100	23 / 16
2026-07-26	$11.39	$29,947,798,100	23 / 16
2026-07-27	$11.40	$29,951,610,600	23 / 16
2026-07-28	$11.40	$29,951,610,600	23 / 16
2026-07-29	$11.41	$29,951,605,300	23 / 16
2026-07-30	$11.41	$29,951,605,300	23 / 16
2026-07-31	$11.41	$29,951,605,300	23 / 16
2026-08-01	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-02	$11.41	$29,951,605,300	23 / 16
2026-08-03	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-04	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$11.41	$29,951,605,300	23 / 16
2026-08-06	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-07	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-08	$11.41	$29,951,605,300	23 / 16
2026-08-09	$11.41	$29,951,605,300	23 / 16
2026-08-10	$11.41	$29,951,605,300	23 / 16
2026-08-12	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-13	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-14	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-15	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-16	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-17	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-18	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-19	$11.40	$29,994,199,718	14 / 13
2026-08-20	$11.40	$29,993,693,835	15 / 13
2026-08-21	$11.40	$29,993,693,835	15 / 13
2026-08-22	$11.40	$29,993,693,835	14 / 13
2026-08-23	$11.40	$29,993,693,835	14 / 13
2026-08-24	$11.40	$29,993,693,835	14 / 13
2026-08-25	$11.40	$29,993,693,835	14 / 13
2026-08-26	$11.41	$30,001,046,777	14 / 13
2026-08-27	$11.41	$30,001,046,777	14 / 13
2026-08-28	$11.41	$30,001,046,777	14 / 13
2026-08-29	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-08-30	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-08-31	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-01	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-02	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-03	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-04	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-05	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-06	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-07	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-08	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-09	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-10	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-11	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-12	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	14 / 13
2026-09-13	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-14	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-15	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-16	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-17	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-18	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-19	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-20	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-21	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-22	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-23	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-24	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-25	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-26	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-27	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-28	$11.40	$29,990,987,953	15 / 13
2026-09-29	$11.40	$29,989,693,835	15 / 13
2026-09-30	$11.40	$29,989,693,835	15 / 13
2026-10-01	$11.41	$29,997,450,071	15 / 13
2026-10-02	$11.42	$30,001,652,941	15 / 13
2026-10-03	$11.42	$30,001,652,941	15 / 13
2026-10-04	$11.42	$30,001,652,941	15 / 13
2026-10-05	$11.42	$30,001,652,941	15 / 13
2026-10-06	$11.42	$30,001,277,929	15 / 13
2026-10-07	$11.42	$29,991,493,623	15 / 13
2026-10-08	$11.42	$29,984,140,682	15 / 13
2026-10-09	$11.42	$29,995,375,976	15 / 14
2026-10-10	$11.42	$29,995,375,976	15 / 14
2026-10-11	$11.42	$29,995,375,976	15 / 14
2026-10-12	$11.42	$29,995,375,976	15 / 14
2026-10-13	$11.42	$29,999,552,447	15 / 14
2026-10-14	$11.42	$29,999,258,329	14 / 14
2026-10-15	$11.42	$29,999,234,841	14 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	14	1
2026-06-01	9	13	1
2026-07-01	9	15	1
2026-08-01	7	15	1
2026-09-01	7	15	1
2026-10-01	7	15	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior Jul 22

$201.00 → $190.00-5.5%

UBSOct 6 · prior Jul 27

$216.00 → $222.00+2.8%

$0$122.10$244.20

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase adjusted EPS by at least 8% to $3.29 in fiscal year 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain strong balance sheet despite new credit agreementDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve at least 10% revenue growth in fiscal year 2026Revenue growth: 8.06%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Marsh McLennan outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on maintaining strong financial performance. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings growth, but the company operates in a challenging sector environment.

What's priced into Marsh McLennan

The market seems to expect a durable premium for MRSH, reflecting its strong financial results. However, the valuation appears expensive compared to peers, suggesting that some caution is warranted as expectations may not fully align with future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has prioritized maintaining strong financial performance and earnings growth, which has been evident in recent results. However, the risk of missing earnings remains moderate, especially given the recent history of misses in the industry.

What Marsh McLennan hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any changes in interest rates could impact MRSH's performance in the financial sector.