Medical Properties Trust (MPT)

NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.70-0.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Medical Properties Trust’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	257.92M
EPS	—	0.002
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.02B
EPS	—	0.041
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.05B
EPS	—	-0.013

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $1 billion annualized cash rent by end of 2026	Medical Properties Trust aims to reach $1 billion in annualized cash rent by end of 2026.	Improving	annualized cash rent falls below $900 million by end of 2026	Revenue: $259.283M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1 billion annualized cash rent. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026259,283,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 65f8036f-14af-45c5-8862-be0b52fecaf5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $223.8 million in 2025-Q1 to $259.3 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting portfolio growth and rent ramp-up. Management consistently reiterated confidence in achieving at least $1 billion annualized cash rent by end 2026, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve positive non-GAAP EPS	The company beat earnings estimates with $0.14 EPS non-GAAP.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.05 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve free cash flow yield toward positive	A supporting condition in Medical Properties Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= 0% FCF yield.	Broken	FCF yield remains below -5% beyond FY27	Free cash flow yield: -10.29% As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 2026-10.29 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: MPT:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain positive quarterly revenue growth	A supporting condition in Medical Properties Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY quarterly revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in any quarter over next year	Revenue growth: 7.87% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0% YoY quarterly revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20267.873223 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 65f8036f-14af-45c5-8862-be0b52fecaf5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.08B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,081,188,220	3 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,081,182,890	2 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,081,182,890	2 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	3	3
2026-06-01	3	3	3
2026-07-01	3	3	3
2026-08-01	3	3	3
2026-09-01	3	3	3
2026-10-01	3	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $1 billion annualized cash rent by end of 2026Revenue: $259.283M
Achieve positive non-GAAP EPSDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Improve free cash flow yield toward positivePublished status: Broken
Sustain positive quarterly revenue growthRevenue growth: 7.87%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Medical Properties Trust outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MPT is a higher-risk, asset-based real estate story rather than a steady earnings compounder, with recent performance weak and the business loss-making. Its thesis state is watch, though its signal recently shifted from cautious to mixed.

What's priced into Medical Properties Trust

The valuation evidence describes MPT as cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain difficult to meet. The model has medium confidence, and no fragility gates fired, so the evidence does not point to a fragile priced-in setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated after consecutive misses, and the snapshot flags a high chance of another miss. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and rent ramp-up support management’s aim of reaching $1 billion in annualized cash rent by the end of 2026, while refinancing and planned asset-sale proceeds support its balance-sheet focus. Rent ramping at transitioned hospitals is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Medical Properties Trust hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on rent collections continuing to ramp and management delivering its cash-rent and balance-sheet priorities. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.