Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-15

$478.07+0.24%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Marathon Petroleum’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+29.7% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

42.49 → 55.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital spending outlook for 2026	A primary condition in Marathon Petroleum's published investment case. The stated target is $1.5 billion.	Intact	capital spending falls below $1.3 billion for 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual earnings per share	Earnings per share beat estimates with $4.07 in Q4 2025 and $1.65 in Q1 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $25 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $17.73 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30.45 EPS for FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 4, 202617.73 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 65bdfde4-a22e-4fe6-9472-84b71a388d9f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Refining and marketing margin per barrel	Marathon Petroleum keeps improving refining margins, reaching $17.74 per barrel in Q1 2026.	Intact	refining margin falls below $13 per barrel	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA surged from $1.9 billion in 2025-Q2 to $6.7 billion in 2026-Q2, with R&M margin per barrel rising from $17.58 to $36.33. Completion of yield-enhancing projects at El Paso, Robinson, and Garyville contributed to this strong operational and margin improvement, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$55.09

$27.63 → $55.09 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$167.22B

$137.97B → $167.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$27.63	$137,971,778,760	18 / 11
2026-07-25	$27.63	$137,971,778,760	18 / 11
2026-07-26	$29.19	$138,946,702,890	19 / 11
2026-07-27	$29.19	$138,946,702,890	19 / 11
2026-07-28	$28.78	$146,803,042,129	11 / 8
2026-07-29	$27.77	$138,946,702,890	18 / 11
2026-07-30	$27.77	$138,946,702,890	18 / 11
2026-07-31	$27.77	$138,946,702,890	18 / 11
2026-08-01	$29.21	$146,803,042,129	11 / 8
2026-08-02	$27.77	$138,946,702,890	18 / 11
2026-08-03	$29.21	$146,803,042,129	11 / 8
2026-08-04	$29.21	$146,803,042,129	11 / 8
2026-08-05	$29.21	$146,803,042,129	11 / 8
2026-08-06	$29.21	$146,803,042,129	11 / 8
2026-08-07	$30.77	$153,469,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-08	$29.70	$143,595,546,690	18 / 11
2026-08-09	$29.70	$143,595,546,690	18 / 11
2026-08-10	$30.77	$153,469,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-12	$29.73	$143,741,183,050	18 / 11
2026-08-13	$29.73	$143,741,183,050	18 / 11
2026-08-14	$30.77	$153,469,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-15	$30.77	$153,469,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-16	$30.77	$153,469,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-17	$30.77	$153,469,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-18	$30.77	$153,469,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-19	$30.77	$153,469,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-20	$34.25	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-21	$34.25	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-22	$34.25	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-23	$34.25	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-24	$34.25	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-25	$34.61	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-26	$34.61	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-27	$34.61	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-28	$34.61	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-29	$34.61	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-30	$34.61	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-08-31	$34.61	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-09-01	$34.61	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-09-02	$34.61	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-09-03	$34.83	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-09-04	$34.83	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-09-05	$35.82	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-09-06	$35.82	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-09-07	$35.94	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-09-08	$35.94	$155,454,533,613	11 / 8
2026-09-09	$36.95	$155,530,067,498	11 / 8
2026-09-10	$36.95	$155,530,067,498	11 / 8
2026-09-11	$37.60	$155,530,067,498	11 / 8
2026-09-12	$39.00	$155,530,067,498	11 / 8
2026-09-13	$39.00	$155,530,067,498	11 / 8
2026-09-14	$39.00	$155,530,067,498	11 / 8
2026-09-15	$42.49	$159,949,264,410	11 / 8
2026-09-16	$42.49	$159,949,264,410	11 / 8
2026-09-17	$42.49	$159,949,264,410	11 / 8
2026-09-18	$42.49	$159,949,264,410	11 / 8
2026-09-19	$42.49	$159,949,264,410	11 / 8
2026-09-20	$43.26	$161,573,400,410	11 / 8
2026-09-21	$43.26	$161,573,400,410	11 / 8
2026-09-22	$43.26	$161,573,400,410	11 / 8
2026-09-23	$45.81	$161,573,400,410	11 / 8
2026-09-24	$45.81	$161,573,400,410	11 / 8
2026-09-25	$45.81	$161,573,400,410	11 / 7
2026-09-26	$45.81	$161,573,400,410	11 / 7
2026-09-27	$45.81	$161,573,400,410	11 / 7
2026-09-28	$45.81	$161,573,400,410	11 / 7
2026-09-29	$45.81	$161,573,400,410	11 / 7
2026-09-30	$45.81	$161,573,400,410	11 / 7
2026-10-01	$45.81	$161,573,400,410	11 / 7
2026-10-02	$47.41	$163,692,589,299	11 / 7
2026-10-03	$48.41	$165,834,144,854	10 / 7
2026-10-04	$48.41	$165,834,144,854	10 / 7
2026-10-05	$48.41	$165,834,144,854	10 / 7
2026-10-06	$49.56	$165,834,144,854	10 / 7
2026-10-07	$49.56	$165,834,144,854	10 / 7
2026-10-08	$49.56	$165,834,144,854	10 / 7
2026-10-09	$50.19	$167,190,033,743	10 / 7
2026-10-10	$50.19	$167,190,033,743	10 / 7
2026-10-11	$51.18	$167,299,580,187	11 / 8
2026-10-12	$51.13	$167,299,580,187	11 / 8
2026-10-13	$51.11	$167,299,580,187	11 / 8
2026-10-14	$54.31	$167,217,783,986	11 / 8
2026-10-15	$55.09	$167,217,783,986	11 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	8	2
2026-06-01	10	7	2
2026-07-01	10	7	2
2026-08-01	10	8	2
2026-09-01	10	9	2
2026-10-01	9	9	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Sep 1

$400.00 → $560.00+40.0%

JefferiesOct 11 · prior Sep 21

$413.00 → $433.00+4.8%

UBSOct 9 · prior Sep 8

$450.00 → $510.00+13.3%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 8 · prior Aug 11

$304.00 → $457.00+50.3%

Goldman SachsSep 21

$472.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$308.00$616.00

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital spending outlook for 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Annual earnings per shareDiluted EPS: $17.73 per share
Refining and marketing margin per barrelDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Marathon Petroleum outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable growth opportunity with a focus on capital strategy and operational improvements. The current thesis state is intact, driven by recent earnings beats and a solid capital allocation strategy.

What's priced into Marathon Petroleum

The market seems to price MPC as fairly valued compared to peers, with a slight expectation gap indicating that some caution is warranted. The valuation reflects a divergence where MPC is seen as cheaper than its competitors despite the current positive sentiment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, supported by recent financial performance and ongoing capital projects. However, the earnings quality is fragile, which introduces some risk to future results.

What Marathon Petroleum hinges on

The thesis hinges on external factors such as inflation trends and sector performance from key industry players. Additionally, any guidance cuts from management could negatively impact sentiment and expectations.