Altria (MO)

NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-10-15

$75.11+1.72%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Altria’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.88 → 5.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Deliver EPS growth near $5.64 in 2026	A primary condition in Altria's published investment case. The stated target is 5.64 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $5.4 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 5.64 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 67edc29b-97b7-4c2f-9ce5-b7035b0743cd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Continue share buybacks totaling about $1 billion in 2026	Altria grows earnings by about 5.6 dollars per share in 2026.	Under Pressure	Buybacks drop below $500 million in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow smoke-free product sales to offset cigarette declines	The company shifts to smoke-free products to keep sales steady.	Under Pressure	Smoke-free sales fail to grow or EPS growth stalls	EPS growth stalled (earnings miss 2026-07-30) vs target: sustain growth July 2026 earnings miss, negative equity, and crumbling margins indicate smoke-free growth is failing to support EPS. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.88

$5.88 → $5.88 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$20.74B

$20.69B → $20.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.88	$20,691,622,510	14 / 12
2026-07-25	$5.88	$20,691,622,510	14 / 12
2026-07-26	$5.88	$20,691,622,510	14 / 12
2026-07-27	$5.88	$20,691,622,510	14 / 12
2026-07-28	$5.88	$20,672,132,957	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$5.88	$20,691,622,510	14 / 12
2026-07-30	$5.88	$20,691,622,510	14 / 12
2026-07-31	$5.88	$20,690,460,673	8 / 8
2026-08-01	$5.88	$20,690,460,673	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$5.87	$20,707,224,000	13 / 11
2026-08-03	$5.87	$20,707,224,000	13 / 11
2026-08-04	$5.87	$20,707,224,000	13 / 11
2026-08-05	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$5.87	$20,735,496,720	13 / 11
2026-08-09	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$5.87	$20,735,496,720	13 / 11
2026-08-12	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$5.87	$20,702,678,542	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$5.89	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$5.89	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$5.89	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$5.88	$20,754,572,424	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$5.88	$20,743,829,666	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$5.88	$20,743,829,666	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$5.88	$20,743,829,666	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$5.88	$20,743,829,666	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$5.88	$20,743,829,666	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$5.88	$20,745,065,466	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$5.88	$20,745,065,466	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$5.88	$20,743,465,466	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$5.88	$20,743,465,466	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$5.88	$20,743,465,466	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$5.88	$20,743,465,466	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$5.88	$20,743,465,466	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$5.88	$20,743,465,466	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$5.88	$20,735,540,033	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$5.88	$20,735,540,033	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	7	2
2026-06-01	4	7	2
2026-07-01	4	8	2
2026-08-01	4	8	2
2026-09-01	4	8	2
2026-10-01	4	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 2

$60.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$33.00$66.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Deliver EPS growth near $5.64 in 2026Diluted EPS: $1.37 per share
Continue share buybacks totaling about $1 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Grow smoke-free product sales to offset cigarette declinesPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Altria outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady earnings growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into Altria

The market currently views MO as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. However, there is a stretched valuation, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to deliver adjusted diluted EPS growth and return value to shareholders. However, the expansion of the smoke-free product portfolio shows mixed results, and there is a moderate risk due to recent earnings misses.

What Altria hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate economic pressures, particularly in relation to inflation and consumer spending. Additionally, any significant changes in the jobs report could impact the stock's performance.