Monster Beverage (MNST)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-10-15

$45.73+0.86%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Monster Beverage’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.31 → 1.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Innovation pipeline supports growth	A supporting condition in Monster Beverage's published investment case. The stated target is Sustained product innovation advancing growth.	Intact	Innovation pipeline fails to produce meaningful new products next year	Qualitative: Q2 sales beat & international growth vs sustained innovation target Record Q2 sales and international expansion support growth; CEO Americas departure is an orderly transition. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently emphasizes innovation and new product offerings as central to long-term growth. Financial results show strong revenue growth from $1.85B in 2025-Q1 to $2.54B in 2026-Q2, supporting the focus on product innovation. The trajectory is delivering with recurring emphasis and revenue growth aligned with innovation efforts. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
International sales grow at least 10% annually	Monster Beverage grows sales about 12% a year, led by international markets.	Intact	International sales growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net sales to customers outside the United States grew from $733.2 million in 2025-Q1 to $1.16 billion in 2026-Q2, increasing their share of total net sales from approximately 40% to 46%. Management's emphasis on international growth is supported by strong revenue growth and increasing international sales contribution, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain profit margins near 34%	Profit margins stay strong near current levels.	Broken	Profit margin falls below 30% next year	Operating margin: 29.18% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~34% profit margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202629.180291 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3551edf6-f75b-4bed-a1e7-f3dd3d47ba62. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Repurchase at least $100 million in shares in 2026-Q1	The company returns capital with $100 million in share repurchases in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Repurchases fall below $50 million in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The company has maintained a consistent share repurchase program with available authorization increasing from approximately $500 million in 2025-Q1 to $900 million in 2026-Q2 due to new authorizations and repurchase activity. The trajectory shows ongoing capital return commitment with substantial remaining capacity. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.31

$2.60 → $1.31 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$10.69B

$10.43B → $10.69B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.60	$10,434,807,310	10 / 18
2026-07-25	$2.58	$10,404,900,670	11 / 24
2026-07-26	$2.58	$10,404,900,670	11 / 24
2026-07-27	$2.60	$10,443,216,945	10 / 18
2026-07-28	$2.60	$10,443,216,945	10 / 18
2026-07-29	$2.58	$10,404,900,670	11 / 24
2026-07-30	$2.58	$10,404,900,670	11 / 24
2026-07-31	$2.58	$10,401,013,990	11 / 24
2026-08-01	$2.60	$10,443,216,945	10 / 18
2026-08-02	$2.58	$10,401,013,990	11 / 24
2026-08-03	$2.58	$10,401,013,990	11 / 24
2026-08-04	$2.60	$10,438,566,945	10 / 18
2026-08-05	$2.60	$10,438,566,945	10 / 18
2026-08-06	$2.60	$10,438,566,945	10 / 18
2026-08-07	$2.60	$10,438,561,945	11 / 18
2026-08-08	$2.58	$10,492,201,460	12 / 24
2026-08-09	$2.60	$10,438,561,945	11 / 18
2026-08-10	$2.58	$10,492,201,460	12 / 24
2026-08-12	$2.60	$10,438,561,945	11 / 18
2026-08-13	$1.30	$10,572,014,610	13 / 24
2026-08-14	$2.60	$10,438,561,945	11 / 18
2026-08-15	$2.60	$10,438,561,945	11 / 18
2026-08-16	$2.60	$10,438,561,945	12 / 18
2026-08-17	$2.60	$10,438,561,945	12 / 18
2026-08-18	$2.60	$10,438,561,945	12 / 18
2026-08-19	$2.60	$10,438,561,945	12 / 18
2026-08-20	$1.31	$10,661,619,690	12 / 18
2026-08-21	$1.31	$10,661,619,690	12 / 18
2026-08-22	$1.31	$10,661,619,690	12 / 18
2026-08-23	$1.31	$10,661,619,690	12 / 18
2026-08-24	$1.31	$10,661,619,690	12 / 18
2026-08-25	$1.31	$10,661,619,690	12 / 18
2026-08-26	$1.31	$10,674,792,472	12 / 18
2026-08-27	$1.31	$10,674,792,472	12 / 18
2026-08-28	$1.31	$10,684,268,663	12 / 18
2026-08-29	$1.31	$10,684,268,663	12 / 18
2026-08-30	$1.31	$10,684,268,663	12 / 18
2026-08-31	$1.31	$10,684,268,663	12 / 18
2026-09-01	$1.31	$10,684,268,663	12 / 18
2026-09-02	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-03	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-04	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-05	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-06	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-07	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-08	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-09	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-10	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-11	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-12	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-13	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-14	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-15	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-16	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-17	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-18	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-19	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-20	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-21	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-22	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-23	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-24	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-25	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-26	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-27	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-28	$1.31	$10,684,267,087	12 / 18
2026-09-29	$1.31	$10,684,265,568	12 / 18
2026-09-30	$1.31	$10,684,265,568	12 / 18
2026-10-01	$1.31	$10,684,265,568	12 / 18
2026-10-02	$1.31	$10,684,265,568	12 / 18
2026-10-03	$1.31	$10,684,265,568	12 / 18
2026-10-04	$1.31	$10,684,265,568	12 / 18
2026-10-05	$1.31	$10,684,265,568	12 / 18
2026-10-06	$1.31	$10,686,189,239	12 / 18
2026-10-07	$1.31	$10,686,825,653	12 / 18
2026-10-08	$1.31	$10,686,825,653	12 / 18
2026-10-09	$1.31	$10,686,825,653	12 / 18
2026-10-10	$1.31	$10,689,401,420	12 / 18
2026-10-11	$1.31	$10,689,401,420	12 / 18
2026-10-12	$1.31	$10,689,401,420	12 / 18
2026-10-13	$1.31	$10,689,401,420	12 / 18
2026-10-14	$1.31	$10,689,401,420	12 / 18
2026-10-15	$1.31	$10,689,401,420	12 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	11	2
2026-06-01	15	11	1
2026-07-01	15	12	1
2026-08-01	14	11	2
2026-09-01	14	11	2
2026-10-01	14	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

International sales grow at least 10% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain profit margins near 34%Published status: Broken
Repurchase at least $100 million in shares in 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Monster Beverage outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on innovation and international expansion. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong revenue growth and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into Monster Beverage

The market currently prices MNST at a cheap valuation compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may not fully account for the company's recent strong performance and management's focus on growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given the company's emphasis on innovation and international sales expansion. While there is a moderate risk environment, the low probability of missing earnings suggests stability in performance.

What Monster Beverage hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on innovation. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and economic conditions will play a significant role in shaping future performance.