NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain profit margins near 34%: TTM operating margin 29.2% vs ~34% target; Q2 FY26 29.2% vs 30% trip.
Monster Beverage grows sales about 12% a year, led by international markets. Profit margins stay strong near current levels. The company returns capital with $100 million in share repurchases in 2026-Q1. Innovation and new products support growth.
Revenue growth slows below 7% as international expansion stalls. Profit margins shrink from current levels near 34%. Share repurchases slow or stop, reducing capital return. Innovation pipeline fails to deliver new hits.
The stock price is about 29% above our fair value near $75 and 21% below the Street median near $95. Analysts expect about 12% revenue growth. Our view is more cautious on valuation but aligned on growth.
Breaks if: Innovation pipeline fails to produce meaningful new products next year
Breaks if: International sales growth falls below 7% YoY next year
Profit margin falls below 30% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on innovation and international expansion. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial results and ongoing management priorities.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that it does not expect significant changes in performance. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, suggesting that there may be room for growth if fundamentals improve.
Fundamentals are likely to continue benefiting from management's focus on innovation and international sales growth. Recent financial performance has been strong, although there is a moderate risk of missing future estimates due to industry trends.
The thesis hinges on macroeconomic factors such as job growth and inflation trends. Additionally, any changes in guidance from management could significantly impact expectations and sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the positive outlook. Strong international sales growth reinforces the company's expansion strategy. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Repurchases fall below $50 million in 2026-Q1
Overall, MNST shows promise with its current strategies and financial performance, but remains sensitive to external economic conditions. Not investment advice.
