MINISO GROUP HOLDING LTD (MNSO)

NYSEConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-16

$10.19-3.69%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MINISO GROUP HOLDING LTD’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
successful product launches	Recent pop-up events and product launches enhance customer engagement.	Intact	fewer than 2 successful launches in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS for FY26	A supporting condition in MINISO GROUP HOLDING LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.39.	Under Pressure	falls below $8 in FY26	Diluted EPS: CNY 4.08 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=8.39. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published May 27, 20264.08 CNY/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
FY26 revenue growth	A primary condition in MINISO GROUP HOLDING LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >=24.77 billion.	Intact	falls below $24 billion in FY26	Revenue: CNY 5.654B FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=24.77 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published May 27, 20265,653,984,188 CNY · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.72

$8.93 → $8.72 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$27.56B

$27.44B → $27.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-05	$8.93	$27,444,486,421	7 / 13
2026-10-06	$8.93	$27,444,486,421	7 / 13
2026-10-07	$8.94	$27,477,656,418	7 / 13
2026-10-08	$8.94	$27,472,128,085	7 / 13
2026-10-09	$8.94	$27,466,599,752	7 / 13
2026-10-10	$8.94	$27,466,599,752	7 / 13
2026-10-11	$8.90	$27,464,756,975	7 / 13
2026-10-12	$8.90	$27,460,770,005	7 / 13
2026-10-13	$8.72	$27,549,494,013	7 / 13
2026-10-14	$8.72	$27,549,939,177	7 / 13
2026-10-15	$8.72	$27,549,802,203	7 / 13
2026-10-16	$8.72	$27,558,823,434	7 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	1
2026-06-01	15	1
2026-07-01	15	1
2026-08-01	16	4
2026-09-01	16	4
2026-10-01	13	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

successful product launchesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS for FY26Published status: Under Pressure
FY26 revenue growthRevenue: CNY 5.654B

Next proof point

Nov 19, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MINISO GROUP HOLDING LTD outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a cyclical play within the Consumer Staples sector. The current thesis state is marked by low confidence due to recent performance issues and sector headwinds.

What's priced into MINISO GROUP HOLDING LTD

Valuation appears to reflect a cautious outlook, with the market likely pricing in the potential for continued earnings misses. Given the muted price reaction, expectations may be low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may struggle in the near term, as MNSO has a history of consecutive earnings misses. The probability of missing earnings again is low, but the company’s recent performance does raise concerns.

What MINISO GROUP HOLDING LTD hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on macroeconomic factors, such as the jobs report and inflation trends. Additionally, performance from sector leader CASY could provide important signals for MNSO's trajectory.

Bottom line

The outlook for MNSO is uncertain, with risks outweighing potential rewards in the near term. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.