3M (MMM)

NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$164.75-0.35%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge 3M’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.84 → 9.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS of $8.50 to $8.70 in 2026	A primary condition in 3M's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.5 USD_PER_SHARE.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $8.5 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.78 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.5 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20261.78 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 51d87dd1-c0bb-4a63-984e-92f6c318c6b5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management reiterated 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $8.50 to $8.70 in 2026-Q1 and increased it to $8.80 to $8.95 in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EPS grew from $1.88 in 2025-Q1 to $2.40 in 2026-Q2, showing progress toward the full-year target. The trajectory is delivering with upward revisions reflecting confidence in earnings growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Increase free cash flow to $5.6 to $5.8 billion in 2026	Free cash flow is expected around $5.7 billion.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $5.6 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $763M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.6 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 2026763,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow was $0.6B in 2026-Q1 and $1.0B in 2026-Q2, showing improvement from prior quarters. Management reiterated 2026 adjusted operating cash flow guidance of $5.6 to $5.8 billion, indicating delivery on cash flow growth targets with positive trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Expand operating margin by 70 to 80 basis points in 2026	Profit margin expansion of about 0.75% is targeted.	Under Pressure	Operating margin expansion falls below 0.7% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 2.6% in next 12 months	A supporting condition in 3M's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.5% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 2.5% YoY	Revenue growth: 2.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20262.459016 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 51d87dd1-c0bb-4a63-984e-92f6c318c6b5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.87

$9.58 → $9.87 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$26.58B

$26.22B → $26.58B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.58	$26,221,779,990	18 / 14
2026-07-25	$9.70	$26,357,279,715	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$9.70	$26,357,279,715	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$9.70	$26,357,279,715	10 / 11
2026-07-28	$9.74	$26,420,191,376	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$9.70	$26,431,158,480	18 / 14
2026-07-30	$9.70	$26,431,158,480	18 / 14
2026-07-31	$9.70	$26,431,158,480	18 / 14
2026-08-01	$9.73	$26,426,991,330	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$9.70	$26,431,158,480	18 / 14
2026-08-03	$9.70	$26,431,158,480	18 / 14
2026-08-04	$9.70	$26,431,158,480	18 / 14
2026-08-05	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-07	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$9.73	$26,447,202,110	18 / 14
2026-08-09	$9.73	$26,447,202,110	18 / 14
2026-08-10	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-13	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-14	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$9.77	$26,440,534,963	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 10
2026-08-22	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 10
2026-08-23	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$9.84	$26,510,650,455	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$9.84	$26,510,635,191	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$9.85	$26,533,563,762	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$9.85	$26,533,563,762	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$9.85	$26,533,563,762	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$9.85	$26,533,563,762	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$9.85	$26,533,563,762	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$9.85	$26,533,563,762	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$9.85	$26,533,563,762	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$9.85	$26,534,579,257	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$9.85	$26,534,579,257	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$9.85	$26,559,100,601	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$9.86	$26,588,581,514	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$9.86	$26,588,581,514	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$9.86	$26,585,571,952	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$9.84	$26,585,571,952	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$9.88	$26,602,700,658	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$9.88	$26,596,324,191	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$9.88	$26,596,324,191	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$9.88	$26,596,292,511	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$9.88	$26,596,292,511	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$9.88	$26,596,292,511	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$9.87	$26,596,225,844	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$9.87	$26,602,560,708	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$9.87	$26,602,530,661	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$9.87	$26,602,530,661	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$9.87	$26,602,530,661	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$9.87	$26,582,529,131	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$9.87	$26,582,529,131	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$9.87	$26,581,868,838	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$9.87	$26,581,868,838	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$9.87	$26,582,735,504	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	8	2
2026-06-01	10	8	3
2026-07-01	9	7	3
2026-08-01	9	6	3
2026-09-01	9	8	3
2026-10-01	9	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinSep 25 · prior Jul 22

$145.00 → $171.00+17.9%

Wells FargoSep 24

$195.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$107.25$214.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS of $8.50 to $8.70 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Increase free cash flow to $5.6 to $5.8 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Expand operating margin by 70 to 80 basis points in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Sustain revenue growth near 2.6% in next 12 monthsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

3M outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MMM represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady earnings growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is stable, but it faces challenges from sector dynamics and execution quality.

What's priced into 3M

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting a justified valuation compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating modest growth without significant surprises.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its adjusted EPS guidance and has shown progress in expanding operating margins. However, the trajectory for operating cash flow is mixed, which may introduce some uncertainty in the near term.

What 3M hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HON, VMI, and SEB, which could influence MMM's momentum. Additionally, any changes in guidance or execution quality could significantly impact investor confidence.