MGM Resorts (MGM)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-15

$28.60-2.99%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MGM Resorts’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-6.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.00 → 1.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS >= $1.95 for FY 2026	Earnings beat in Q4 2025 with EPS of $1.60, signaling operational strength.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.80 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.95 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 29, 20261.11 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 794ab2af-0220-41f7-823a-0cddc77ee129. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues >= $2.2 billion in 2026-Q1	MGM is growing revenue modestly with Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues at $2.2 billion in Q1 2026.	Broken	Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues fall below $2.0 billion in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchases of at least $90 million per quarter	A supporting condition in MGM Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is >=90000000 USD.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below $50 million in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. MGM repurchased approximately 29 million shares from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2 totaling nearly $1 billion, with $1.4 billion remaining authorized as of 2026-Q2. Management has consistently emphasized returning capital via share repurchases, and the financial data shows active execution on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.87

$2.21 → $1.87 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$17.79B

$17.95B → $17.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.21	$17,945,158,400	15 / 20
2026-07-25	$2.18	$17,898,218,260	10 / 16
2026-07-26	$2.18	$17,898,218,260	10 / 16
2026-07-27	$2.18	$17,898,218,260	10 / 16
2026-07-28	$2.18	$17,911,331,047	10 / 16
2026-07-29	$2.21	$17,937,120,560	15 / 20
2026-07-30	$2.21	$17,937,120,560	15 / 20
2026-07-31	$2.03	$17,948,274,590	14 / 20
2026-08-01	$2.10	$17,916,581,885	10 / 16
2026-08-02	$2.06	$17,917,087,106	10 / 16
2026-08-03	$2.04	$17,952,427,630	15 / 20
2026-08-04	$2.04	$17,952,427,630	15 / 20
2026-08-05	$2.04	$17,947,546,970	15 / 20
2026-08-06	$2.04	$17,947,547,470	15 / 20
2026-08-07	$2.06	$17,917,087,106	10 / 16
2026-08-08	$2.06	$17,917,087,106	10 / 16
2026-08-09	$2.04	$17,947,546,970	15 / 20
2026-08-10	$2.04	$17,947,546,970	15 / 20
2026-08-12	$2.04	$17,947,546,970	15 / 20
2026-08-13	$2.04	$17,947,546,970	15 / 20
2026-08-14	$2.06	$17,917,087,106	10 / 16
2026-08-15	$2.06	$17,917,087,106	11 / 16
2026-08-16	$2.06	$17,917,087,106	11 / 16
2026-08-17	$2.06	$17,917,087,106	11 / 16
2026-08-18	$2.06	$17,917,087,106	11 / 16
2026-08-19	$2.06	$17,917,087,106	11 / 16
2026-08-20	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-21	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-22	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-23	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-24	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-25	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-26	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-27	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-28	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-29	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-30	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-08-31	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-01	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-02	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-03	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-04	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-05	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-06	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-07	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-08	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-09	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-10	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-11	$2.00	$17,911,545,833	10 / 16
2026-09-12	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-13	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-14	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-15	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-16	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-17	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-18	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-19	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-20	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-21	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-22	$2.00	$17,910,233,483	10 / 16
2026-09-23	$2.00	$17,906,083,483	10 / 16
2026-09-24	$2.00	$17,906,083,483	10 / 16
2026-09-25	$1.95	$17,852,207,282	10 / 16
2026-09-26	$1.95	$17,852,195,508	10 / 16
2026-09-27	$1.95	$17,852,195,508	10 / 16
2026-09-28	$1.95	$17,852,195,508	10 / 16
2026-09-29	$1.95	$17,852,195,508	10 / 16
2026-09-30	$1.95	$17,852,195,508	10 / 17
2026-10-01	$1.95	$17,852,195,508	10 / 17
2026-10-02	$1.96	$17,848,542,820	10 / 17
2026-10-03	$1.96	$17,848,542,820	10 / 17
2026-10-04	$1.96	$17,848,542,820	10 / 17
2026-10-05	$1.96	$17,848,542,820	10 / 17
2026-10-06	$1.96	$17,848,542,820	10 / 17
2026-10-07	$1.95	$17,848,542,820	10 / 17
2026-10-08	$1.92	$17,843,524,058	10 / 17
2026-10-09	$1.92	$17,846,762,153	10 / 17
2026-10-10	$1.92	$17,846,762,153	10 / 17
2026-10-11	$1.92	$17,846,762,153	10 / 17
2026-10-12	$1.92	$17,846,762,153	10 / 17
2026-10-13	$1.90	$17,832,568,463	10 / 17
2026-10-14	$1.87	$17,797,833,606	10 / 17
2026-10-15	$1.87	$17,790,400,273	10 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	10	3
2026-06-01	12	10	3
2026-07-01	9	11	3
2026-08-01	9	11	2
2026-09-01	10	11	2
2026-10-01	10	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Jul 15

$43.00 → $30.00-30.2%

SusquehannaOct 8 · prior Jul 29

$53.00 → $41.00-22.6%

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 24

$55.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$30.25$60.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS >= $1.95 for FY 2026Published status: Broken
Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues >= $2.2 billion in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Share repurchases of at least $90 million per quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MGM Resorts outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MGM represents a durable compounder with a focus on enhancing its Las Vegas Strip performance and expanding its digital businesses. The current thesis state is stable, but it faces some near-term risks that could impact performance.

What's priced into MGM Resorts

The market currently prices MGM at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that investors expect robust performance. However, there is an expectations gap, suggesting that some of the anticipated growth may not be fully realized.

What the fundamentals likely do

MGM's fundamentals are likely to remain strong, supported by consistent revenue growth in both Las Vegas and digital segments. However, the company faces elevated risks, including the potential for earnings misses, which could affect investor sentiment.

What MGM Resorts hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its priorities effectively, particularly in enhancing Las Vegas performance and expanding digital offerings. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and sector performance will play a crucial role.