NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues >= $2.2 billion in 2026-Q1: metric not reported.
MGM is growing revenue modestly with Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues at $2.2 billion in Q1 2026. The company repurchased $90 million of shares in Q1, showing strong capital return. Earnings beat in Q4 2025 with EPS of $1.60, signaling operational strength. New promotions and all-inclusive offers support steady growth.
Revenue growth is slow at only 4% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Management progress on key growth priorities is behind or mixed. Earnings missed in Q1 2026 and capital obligations increased, which may pressure cash flow. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is expensive relative to peers.
The price is about 36% below our fair value near $72, reflecting cautious optimism. Analysts expect only about 1% revenue growth, which is lower than our 4%+ growth driver. Our fair value is well above the Street median, indicating upside if growth improves.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.80 for FY 2026
Breaks if: Las Vegas Strip Resorts net revenues fall below $2.0 billion in any quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in both physical and digital gaming sectors. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent earnings performance has shown volatility despite overall strong financials.
The market currently reflects an expensive valuation relative to peers, with expectations that may not fully account for potential risks. There is a notable gap in expectations, suggesting that some downside may be priced in given recent earnings misses.
MGM's fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by ongoing management priorities such as enhancing Las Vegas Strip performance and expanding digital offerings. However, there is a moderate risk of earnings surprises, as recent trends show some industry peers missing expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain growth momentum in key areas and external economic conditions like inflation. Additionally, the performance of sector peers could influence investor sentiment and expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. MGM's strong performance in Las Vegas enhances its growth outlook. However, the latest earnings miss raises concerns about future performance.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on improving Las Vegas Strip Resorts with room remodels and new promotions.
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $50 million in any quarter
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MGM's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and the broader economic environment. Not investment advice.
