Meta Platforms (META)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$709.33-3.72%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Meta Platforms’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

33.76 → 34.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 41 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 40 to 41; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures to support growth	Capital spending rises to support future growth.	Intact	annual capex falls below $125B in 2026	Capital expenditures: $30.116B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex between $125B and $145B in 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 30, 202630,116,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance increased from $64-72B in 2025 to $130-145B in 2026, reflecting infrastructure and AI investments. Actual capex rose from $17.01B in 2025-Q2 to $31.08B in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on elevated capex to support growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stable profit margin near 14.5%	Profit margins stay stable near 14.5%.	Intact	tax rate rises above 16% or falls below 13% in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Effective tax rate guidance rose from 12-15% in 2025 to 15-17% in 2026, reflecting regulatory and legislative changes. Actual effective tax rate increased from 11% in 2025-Q2 to 16% in 2026-Q2. Management is adjusting tax expectations consistent with evolving tax landscape. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Meta's revenue growth	A primary condition in Meta Platforms's published investment case. The stated target is >= $59.5B revenue in 2026-Q2.	Intact	revenue falls below $58B in 2026-Q2	Revenue: $60.801B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $59.5B revenue in 2026-Q2. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Jul 29, 202660,801,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b76a7b73-3511-416c-87cd-ba7f97498f57. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$34.05

$35.16 → $34.05 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$306.03B

$304.11B → $306.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$35.16	$304,109,846,720	54 / 58
2026-07-25	$35.18	$303,671,906,976	42 / 44
2026-07-26	$35.18	$303,671,906,976	42 / 44
2026-07-27	$35.14	$304,223,244,080	54 / 58
2026-07-28	$35.14	$304,223,244,080	54 / 58
2026-07-29	$35.10	$304,059,399,260	54 / 58
2026-07-30	$35.10	$304,059,399,260	54 / 58
2026-07-31	$35.10	$304,059,399,260	54 / 58
2026-08-01	$34.51	$304,173,544,862	41 / 44
2026-08-02	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	41 / 43
2026-08-03	$34.10	$305,143,993,880	53 / 57
2026-08-04	$34.10	$305,143,993,880	53 / 57
2026-08-05	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	41 / 43
2026-08-06	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	41 / 43
2026-08-07	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	41 / 43
2026-08-08	$33.95	$305,527,099,140	52 / 57
2026-08-09	$33.95	$305,527,099,140	52 / 57
2026-08-10	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	41 / 43
2026-08-12	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	41 / 43
2026-08-13	$33.95	$305,527,099,140	52 / 57
2026-08-14	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	41 / 43
2026-08-15	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	41 / 43
2026-08-16	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	40 / 43
2026-08-17	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	40 / 43
2026-08-18	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	40 / 43
2026-08-19	$34.29	$304,547,872,168	40 / 43
2026-08-20	$33.97	$305,272,165,647	40 / 43
2026-08-21	$33.97	$305,272,165,647	40 / 43
2026-08-22	$33.88	$305,171,164,032	40 / 43
2026-08-23	$33.88	$305,171,164,032	40 / 43
2026-08-24	$33.88	$305,171,164,032	40 / 43
2026-08-25	$33.88	$305,171,164,032	40 / 43
2026-08-26	$33.87	$305,161,430,134	40 / 43
2026-08-27	$33.87	$305,161,430,134	40 / 43
2026-08-28	$33.87	$305,161,430,134	40 / 43
2026-08-29	$33.90	$305,338,827,892	40 / 43
2026-08-30	$33.87	$305,338,827,892	40 / 43
2026-08-31	$33.87	$305,338,827,892	40 / 43
2026-09-01	$33.87	$305,338,832,390	40 / 43
2026-09-02	$33.87	$305,338,832,390	40 / 43
2026-09-03	$33.87	$305,338,832,390	40 / 43
2026-09-04	$33.87	$305,279,953,080	40 / 44
2026-09-05	$33.87	$305,279,953,080	40 / 44
2026-09-06	$33.87	$305,279,953,080	40 / 44
2026-09-07	$33.87	$305,279,953,080	40 / 44
2026-09-08	$33.87	$305,279,958,252	40 / 44
2026-09-09	$33.87	$305,279,958,252	40 / 44
2026-09-10	$33.80	$305,279,958,252	40 / 44
2026-09-11	$33.76	$305,279,958,252	40 / 44
2026-09-12	$33.76	$305,279,958,252	40 / 44
2026-09-13	$33.76	$305,279,958,252	40 / 44
2026-09-14	$33.76	$305,279,958,252	40 / 44
2026-09-15	$33.76	$305,279,953,790	40 / 44
2026-09-16	$33.76	$305,279,953,118	40 / 44
2026-09-17	$33.76	$305,279,953,118	40 / 44
2026-09-18	$33.76	$305,279,953,118	40 / 43
2026-09-19	$33.76	$305,279,953,118	39 / 43
2026-09-20	$33.76	$305,279,953,118	39 / 43
2026-09-21	$33.76	$305,279,953,118	39 / 43
2026-09-22	$33.76	$305,279,953,118	39 / 43
2026-09-23	$33.76	$305,279,953,118	39 / 43
2026-09-24	$33.79	$305,304,334,555	39 / 43
2026-09-25	$33.79	$305,404,722,486	39 / 43
2026-09-26	$33.96	$305,576,657,908	40 / 43
2026-09-27	$33.98	$305,722,099,943	40 / 43
2026-09-28	$33.98	$305,722,099,943	40 / 43
2026-09-29	$34.01	$305,727,731,610	40 / 44
2026-09-30	$34.02	$305,727,654,362	40 / 44
2026-10-01	$34.02	$305,720,304,362	40 / 44
2026-10-02	$34.02	$305,720,304,362	41 / 44
2026-10-03	$34.02	$305,723,114,362	41 / 44
2026-10-04	$34.02	$305,723,114,362	41 / 44
2026-10-05	$34.02	$305,723,114,362	41 / 44
2026-10-06	$34.02	$305,723,114,362	41 / 44
2026-10-07	$34.01	$305,642,414,362	41 / 45
2026-10-08	$34.01	$305,642,414,362	41 / 45
2026-10-09	$34.03	$305,761,427,467	41 / 45
2026-10-10	$34.03	$305,761,427,467	41 / 45
2026-10-11	$34.03	$305,761,427,467	41 / 45
2026-10-12	$34.02	$305,743,329,133	41 / 45
2026-10-13	$34.02	$305,740,519,133	41 / 45
2026-10-14	$33.99	$305,843,325,986	41 / 45
2026-10-15	$34.05	$306,033,973,909	41 / 45

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	60	7	0
2026-06-01	58	7	0
2026-07-01	57	7	0
2026-08-01	55	7	0
2026-09-01	56	7	1
2026-10-01	55	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 55 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades24 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 24 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

GuggenheimOct 14 · prior Apr 30

$800.00 → $850.00+6.3%

Truist FinancialOct 13 · prior Aug 27

$763.00 → $1000.00+31.1%

Pivotal ResearchOct 13

$930.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 6 · prior Sep 21

$796.00 → $1000.00+25.6%

MonnessSep 28

$830.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerSep 25

$875.00New observation · no comparable prior

Canaccord GenuitySep 25

$950.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesSep 22

$875.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$550.00$1100.00

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 5 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures to support growthCapital expenditures: $30.116B
Stable profit margin near 14.5%Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Meta Platforms outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is a durable compounder, focusing on long-term growth driven by AI and core business expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance despite some recent earnings misses.

What's priced into Meta Platforms

The market seems to price in an elevated valuation with a premium compared to peers, reflecting a belief in META's growth potential. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that some future performance may not be fully justified by current valuations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, as management is executing on its priorities, including revenue growth and capital expenditures. However, there is a risk of missing earnings expectations again, which could impact sentiment.

What Meta Platforms hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, which could benefit META and the Communication Services sector. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like GOOGL and GOOG will be important for META's momentum.