MetLife (MET)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-10-15

$100.76+0.49%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MetLife’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.12 → 11.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Deliver double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth	MetLife grows earnings per share by double digits.	Intact	Adjusted EPS growth falls below 5% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Adjusted EPS grew from $1.96 in 2025-Q1 to $2.43 in 2026-Q2 (+24%), with full-year 2025 adjusted EPS up 10% to $8.89. Management consistently emphasized double-digit EPS growth under New Frontier, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Grow premiums, fees and other revenues across all segments	Premiums and fees grew 5% to $14.3 billion.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 2% YoY in FY26-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Premiums, fees and other revenues grew from $12.7 billion in 2025-Q2 to $13.7 billion in 2026-Q2 (+7%), with broad-based segment growth. Management consistently highlights PFO growth, and financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain valuation discount to peer median PE	A supporting condition in MetLife's published investment case. The stated target is PE ratio below 12.	Intact	PE ratio rises above 16	P/E (TTM): 10.36x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202610.3585 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: MET:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve variable investment income targets	Variable investment income rose 58% to $518 million.	Intact	Variable investment income falls below $400 million in FY26-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Variable investment income rose from $327 million in 2025-Q1 to $518 million in 2026-Q1 (+58%), with strong private equity returns driving growth. The trajectory shows delivering progress with some quarter-to-quarter variability. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.15

$10.99 → $11.15 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$83.33B

$83.48B → $83.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.99	$83,477,258,900	17 / 9
2026-07-25	$10.97	$84,136,797,884	11 / 7
2026-07-26	$10.97	$84,136,797,884	11 / 7
2026-07-27	$10.97	$84,136,797,884	11 / 7
2026-07-28	$10.97	$84,136,797,884	11 / 7
2026-07-29	$10.99	$83,281,766,270	17 / 8
2026-07-30	$10.99	$83,281,766,270	17 / 8
2026-07-31	$10.99	$83,281,766,270	17 / 8
2026-08-01	$10.97	$84,136,797,884	11 / 7
2026-08-02	$10.99	$83,281,766,270	17 / 8
2026-08-03	$10.99	$83,281,766,270	17 / 8
2026-08-04	$10.99	$83,281,766,270	17 / 8
2026-08-05	$10.97	$84,136,797,884	11 / 7
2026-08-06	$10.97	$84,136,797,884	11 / 7
2026-08-07	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-08	$10.90	$83,575,014,460	18 / 9
2026-08-09	$10.90	$83,575,014,460	18 / 9
2026-08-10	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-12	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-13	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-14	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-15	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-16	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-17	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-18	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-19	$10.99	$84,136,797,877	11 / 7
2026-08-20	$11.10	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-21	$11.10	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-22	$11.10	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-23	$11.10	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-24	$11.10	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-25	$11.10	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-26	$11.11	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-27	$11.11	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-28	$11.11	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-29	$11.11	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-30	$11.11	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-08-31	$11.11	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-09-01	$11.11	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-09-02	$11.11	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-09-03	$11.11	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-09-04	$11.12	$84,257,635,051	12 / 7
2026-09-05	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 7
2026-09-06	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 7
2026-09-07	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 7
2026-09-08	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-09	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-10	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-11	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-12	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-13	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-14	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-15	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-16	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-17	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-18	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-19	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-20	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-21	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-22	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-23	$11.12	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-24	$11.13	$84,216,443,751	12 / 8
2026-09-25	$11.13	$84,216,443,751	12 / 8
2026-09-26	$11.13	$84,216,443,751	12 / 8
2026-09-27	$11.13	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-28	$11.13	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-29	$11.13	$84,215,777,084	12 / 8
2026-09-30	$11.14	$84,215,777,084	11 / 8
2026-10-01	$11.14	$84,215,777,084	11 / 8
2026-10-02	$11.14	$84,215,777,518	11 / 8
2026-10-03	$11.14	$84,169,184,744	11 / 8
2026-10-04	$11.14	$84,169,184,744	11 / 8
2026-10-05	$11.14	$84,169,184,744	11 / 8
2026-10-06	$11.15	$84,169,184,744	11 / 8
2026-10-07	$11.15	$84,090,026,129	11 / 8
2026-10-08	$11.15	$83,365,192,796	11 / 8
2026-10-09	$11.15	$83,365,192,796	11 / 8
2026-10-10	$11.15	$83,365,192,796	11 / 8
2026-10-11	$11.15	$83,365,192,796	11 / 8
2026-10-12	$11.15	$83,365,192,796	11 / 8
2026-10-13	$11.15	$83,327,092,363	11 / 8
2026-10-14	$11.15	$83,327,092,363	11 / 8
2026-10-15	$11.15	$83,327,092,363	11 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	6	0
2026-06-01	12	6	1
2026-07-01	12	5	1
2026-08-01	12	5	1
2026-09-01	13	5	1
2026-10-01	13	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior May 8

$95.00 → $109.00+14.7%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Aug 6

$97.00 → $111.00+14.4%

UBSOct 6 · prior Jul 8

$105.00 → $110.00+4.8%

Piper SandlerSep 22 · prior Jun 24

$90.00 → $110.00+22.2%

$0$61.05$122.10

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Deliver double-digit adjusted earnings per share growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Grow premiums, fees and other revenues across all segmentsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain valuation discount to peer median PEP/E (TTM): 10.36x
Achieve variable investment income targetsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MetLife outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis state is cautious, given the mixed management execution and sector challenges.

What's priced into MetLife

The market appears to price MET at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation despite recent performance that lags its industry. The expectations gap indicates that the market may be anticipating lower growth than previously expected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown progress in achieving double-digit earnings growth and increasing variable investment income. However, the recent financial performance has been neutral, and there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings expectations.

What MetLife hinges on

Key factors include management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on earnings targets, as well as the performance of sector peers like AFL, PRU, and UNM. Additionally, changes in interest rates could significantly impact MET's performance.