MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1810.15-0.81%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MercadoLibre, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

54.62 → 55.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	11.98B
EPS	—	11.253
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	41.79B
EPS	—	38.314
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	54.03B
EPS	—	55.661

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations grows to at least $2.08B in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations doubled to $2.08B, showing strong financial health.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $2.08B in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $3.662B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.08B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20263,662,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income recovers or stays near $611M in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in MercadoLibre, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $611M.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $611M in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $683M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $611M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026683,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f8b05d96-cfa9-45b7-9f80-7b342cf89282. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $8.845B in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in MercadoLibre, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $8.845B.	Improving	Revenue falls below $8.845B in 2026-Q1	Revenue: $10.169B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.845B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202610,169,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f8b05d96-cfa9-45b7-9f80-7b342cf89282. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $6.79bn in 2025-Q2 to $10.17bn in 2026-Q2, a 50% increase. Ecosystemic users grew 37% YoY in 2026-Q2, with engagement metrics at record highs. Management is delivering strong growth and deepening engagement consistent with their stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$55.66

$57.39 → $55.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$54.03B

$51.73B → $54.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$57.39	$51,733,247,180	18 / 24
2026-07-25	$56.39	$51,967,627,481	14 / 17
2026-07-26	$57.39	$51,733,247,180	18 / 24
2026-07-27	$56.40	$52,006,002,496	14 / 17
2026-07-28	$56.40	$52,006,002,496	14 / 17
2026-07-29	$57.36	$51,791,001,220	18 / 24
2026-07-30	$57.36	$51,791,001,220	18 / 24
2026-07-31	$56.36	$52,033,634,260	14 / 17
2026-08-01	$56.36	$52,033,634,260	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$57.32	$51,791,822,020	18 / 24
2026-08-03	$57.32	$51,791,822,020	18 / 24
2026-08-04	$56.32	$52,034,559,478	14 / 17
2026-08-05	$57.32	$51,791,822,020	18 / 24
2026-08-06	$56.32	$52,034,559,478	14 / 17
2026-08-07	$55.79	$52,813,524,710	14 / 17
2026-08-08	$56.66	$52,221,962,020	18 / 24
2026-08-09	$56.66	$52,221,962,020	18 / 24
2026-08-10	$55.79	$52,813,524,710	14 / 17
2026-08-12	$55.79	$52,813,524,710	14 / 17
2026-08-13	$56.41	$52,984,199,420	20 / 24
2026-08-14	$55.79	$52,813,524,710	14 / 17
2026-08-15	$55.79	$52,813,524,710	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$55.79	$52,813,524,710	14 / 17
2026-08-17	$55.79	$52,813,524,710	14 / 17
2026-08-18	$55.79	$52,813,524,710	14 / 17
2026-08-19	$55.79	$52,813,524,710	14 / 17
2026-08-20	$55.08	$53,205,023,530	15 / 17
2026-08-21	$55.08	$53,205,023,530	15 / 17
2026-08-22	$55.08	$53,205,023,530	15 / 17
2026-08-23	$55.08	$53,205,023,530	15 / 17
2026-08-24	$55.08	$53,205,023,530	15 / 17
2026-08-25	$55.08	$53,205,022,897	15 / 17
2026-08-26	$55.03	$53,248,119,208	15 / 17
2026-08-27	$55.03	$53,248,119,208	15 / 17
2026-08-28	$55.03	$53,248,119,208	15 / 17
2026-08-29	$55.03	$53,248,119,208	15 / 17
2026-08-30	$55.03	$53,248,119,208	15 / 17
2026-08-31	$55.03	$53,248,119,208	15 / 17
2026-09-01	$55.03	$53,248,119,208	15 / 17
2026-09-02	$55.03	$53,248,119,208	15 / 17
2026-09-03	$54.62	$53,333,869,208	15 / 17
2026-09-04	$54.62	$53,333,869,208	15 / 17
2026-09-05	$54.62	$53,333,869,208	15 / 17
2026-09-06	$54.62	$53,333,869,208	15 / 17
2026-09-07	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-08	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-09	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-10	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-11	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-12	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-13	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-14	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-15	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-16	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-17	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-18	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-19	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-20	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-21	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-22	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-23	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-24	$54.62	$53,333,864,873	15 / 17
2026-09-25	$54.21	$53,317,204,641	16 / 18
2026-09-26	$54.21	$53,317,204,641	16 / 18
2026-09-27	$54.21	$53,317,204,641	16 / 18
2026-09-28	$54.21	$53,317,204,641	16 / 18
2026-09-29	$54.23	$53,343,511,697	16 / 18
2026-09-30	$54.23	$53,343,511,697	16 / 18
2026-10-01	$55.03	$53,439,306,620	16 / 18
2026-10-02	$54.98	$53,401,336,893	16 / 18
2026-10-03	$54.98	$53,401,336,893	16 / 18
2026-10-04	$54.98	$53,401,336,893	16 / 18
2026-10-05	$54.98	$53,401,336,893	16 / 18
2026-10-06	$54.92	$53,506,076,590	16 / 18
2026-10-07	$55.48	$53,829,349,318	16 / 18
2026-10-08	$55.48	$53,829,349,318	16 / 18
2026-10-09	$55.48	$53,829,349,318	16 / 18
2026-10-10	$55.48	$53,829,349,318	16 / 18
2026-10-11	$55.48	$53,829,349,318	16 / 18
2026-10-12	$55.57	$53,865,073,072	16 / 18
2026-10-13	$55.57	$53,865,073,072	16 / 18
2026-10-14	$55.57	$53,865,073,072	16 / 18
2026-10-15	$55.68	$54,000,676,855	16 / 18
2026-10-16	$55.68	$54,000,676,855	16 / 18
2026-10-17	$55.68	$54,000,676,855	16 / 18
2026-10-18	$55.66	$54,026,040,523	16 / 18
2026-10-19	$55.66	$54,026,040,523	16 / 18
2026-10-20	$55.66	$54,026,040,523	16 / 18
2026-10-21	$55.66	$54,026,040,523	16 / 18
2026-10-22	$55.66	$54,026,040,523	16 / 18
2026-10-23	$55.66	$54,026,040,523	16 / 18
2026-10-24	$55.66	$54,026,040,523	16 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	24	4
2026-06-01	20	4
2026-07-01	20	4
2026-08-01	20	5
2026-09-01	22	5
2026-10-01	22	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 12 · prior Aug 7

$2300.00 → $2200.00-4.3%

SusquehannaOct 6

$2400.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$1320.00$2640.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations grows to at least $2.08B in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $3.662B
Operating income recovers or stays near $611M in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to at least $8.845B in 2026-Q1Revenue: $10.169B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MercadoLibre, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented ecosystem business, with earnings quality rated robust and management rated stable. The long-term thesis is intact, but recent financial performance is neutral and the valuation is expensive versus peers.

What's priced into MercadoLibre, Inc.

MELI trades at a premium to peers, and the evidence points to expectations running ahead of what the valuation model supports. That gap is partly tied to business optionality, meaning value investors see in possible future growth areas, but model confidence is low and no pricing fragility flags are active.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, recent execution supports continued growth: revenue rose 50% year over year in 2026-Q2, while ecosystem users grew 37% and engagement reached record levels. Brazil marketplace growth followed a lower free-shipping threshold, with some average selling price ranges reaching breakeven, though credit card portfolio growth remains a watch item. Near term, results have been mixed, with a May earnings miss followed by an August beat; the stated miss risk is low, but past misses and possible guidance cuts remain risks.

What MercadoLibre, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth and deeper ecosystem engagement while improving the economics of growth initiatives. A guidance cut at the next call would weaken the near-term picture, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as AMZN, BABA, and PDD would support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.