Mondelez International (MDLZ)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$63.91+1.40%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mondelez International’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.36 → 3.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS growth flat to 5% on constant currency basis for 2026	A primary condition in Mondelez International's published investment case. The stated target is 0% to 5% YoY growth.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS growth falls below 0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently maintained Adjusted EPS growth guidance of flat to 5 percent for 2026. However, adjusted EPS declined 2.7% on a constant currency basis in 2026-Q2 and 14.9% in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress against the target so far. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Manage impact of rising cocoa prices on revenue and margins	A supporting condition in Mondelez International's published investment case. The stated target is Cocoa cost inflation contained to levels not reducing revenue growth below 0%.	Intact	Cocoa price inflation causes revenue growth to fall below 0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion for 2026	Free cash flow targets about $3 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Free Cash Flow falls below $2.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $513M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026513,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management has consistently targeted Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion for 2026 and $3+ billion for 2025. Year-to-date cash from operating activities was $1.3 billion in 2026-Q2, supporting the target. The trajectory shows consistent reaffirmation with steady cash flow generation. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Organic Net Revenue growth of flat to 2% for 2026	A primary condition in Mondelez International's published investment case. The stated target is 0% to 2% YoY growth.	Under Pressure	Organic Net Revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently reaffirmed Organic Net Revenue growth guidance of flat to 2 percent for 2026. This aligns with reported year-to-date 2026 Organic Net Revenue growth of 2.2% in Q2. The trajectory is delivering against the stated growth range. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.36

$3.37 → $3.36 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$41.33B

$41.04B → $41.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.37	$41,039,098,080	23 / 21
2026-07-25	$3.36	$41,070,958,683	12 / 16
2026-07-26	$3.36	$41,070,958,683	12 / 16
2026-07-27	$3.37	$41,038,955,220	23 / 21
2026-07-28	$3.36	$41,070,958,683	12 / 16
2026-07-29	$3.37	$41,038,955,220	23 / 21
2026-07-30	$3.37	$41,038,955,220	23 / 21
2026-07-31	$3.35	$41,323,989,672	12 / 17
2026-08-01	$3.35	$41,323,989,672	12 / 17
2026-08-02	$3.35	$41,323,989,672	12 / 17
2026-08-03	$3.36	$41,284,403,120	24 / 22
2026-08-04	$3.35	$41,323,989,672	12 / 17
2026-08-05	$3.35	$41,323,989,672	12 / 17
2026-08-06	$3.35	$41,323,989,672	12 / 17
2026-08-07	$3.36	$41,352,933,895	12 / 17
2026-08-08	$3.36	$41,294,297,230	24 / 22
2026-08-09	$3.36	$41,294,297,230	24 / 22
2026-08-10	$3.36	$41,352,933,895	12 / 17
2026-08-12	$3.36	$41,352,933,895	12 / 17
2026-08-13	$3.36	$41,294,297,230	24 / 22
2026-08-14	$3.36	$41,352,933,895	12 / 17
2026-08-15	$3.36	$41,352,933,895	12 / 17
2026-08-16	$3.36	$41,352,933,895	12 / 17
2026-08-17	$3.36	$41,352,933,895	12 / 17
2026-08-18	$3.36	$41,352,933,895	12 / 17
2026-08-19	$3.36	$41,352,933,895	12 / 17
2026-08-20	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-21	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-22	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-23	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-24	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-25	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-26	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-27	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-28	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-29	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-30	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-08-31	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-01	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-02	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-03	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-04	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-05	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-06	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-07	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-08	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-09	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-10	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-11	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-12	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-13	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-14	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-15	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-16	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-17	$3.36	$41,372,430,223	12 / 17
2026-09-18	$3.36	$41,367,319,112	12 / 17
2026-09-19	$3.36	$41,367,319,628	12 / 17
2026-09-20	$3.36	$41,367,319,628	12 / 17
2026-09-21	$3.36	$41,367,319,628	12 / 17
2026-09-22	$3.36	$41,367,319,628	12 / 17
2026-09-23	$3.36	$41,367,319,628	12 / 17
2026-09-24	$3.36	$41,367,319,628	12 / 17
2026-09-25	$3.36	$41,367,319,628	12 / 17
2026-09-26	$3.36	$41,367,320,957	12 / 17
2026-09-27	$3.36	$41,367,320,957	12 / 17
2026-09-28	$3.36	$41,367,320,957	12 / 17
2026-09-29	$3.36	$41,367,320,957	12 / 17
2026-09-30	$3.36	$41,367,320,957	12 / 16
2026-10-01	$3.36	$41,367,320,440	12 / 16
2026-10-02	$3.36	$41,367,320,440	12 / 16
2026-10-03	$3.36	$41,367,320,440	12 / 16
2026-10-04	$3.36	$41,367,320,440	12 / 16
2026-10-05	$3.36	$41,367,320,440	12 / 16
2026-10-06	$3.36	$41,363,542,662	12 / 16
2026-10-07	$3.36	$41,363,542,662	12 / 16
2026-10-08	$3.36	$41,363,542,662	12 / 16
2026-10-09	$3.36	$41,363,542,662	12 / 16
2026-10-10	$3.36	$41,363,638,562	12 / 16
2026-10-11	$3.36	$41,363,638,562	12 / 16
2026-10-12	$3.36	$41,363,638,562	12 / 16
2026-10-13	$3.36	$41,363,638,562	12 / 16
2026-10-14	$3.36	$41,363,638,562	12 / 16
2026-10-15	$3.36	$41,328,043,306	12 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	18	9
2026-06-01	16	9
2026-07-01	16	9
2026-08-01	15	9
2026-09-01	16	9
2026-10-01	16	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS growth flat to 5% on constant currency basis for 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Manage impact of rising cocoa prices on revenue and marginsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free Cash Flow of approximately $3 billion for 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Organic Net Revenue growth of flat to 2% for 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mondelez International outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MDLZ represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats but tempered by mixed management priorities and sector challenges.

What's priced into Mondelez International

The market appears to price in a low level of fragility, suggesting that expectations are somewhat unjustified given the current performance. MDLZ trades at a premium compared to peers, indicating that investors may expect consistent results despite recent mixed signals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has reaffirmed its targets for organic revenue growth and free cash flow, but adjusted EPS growth is lagging behind expectations. The near-term risk remains moderate, with a low probability of missing estimates, although recent history shows some volatility.

What Mondelez International hinges on

Key factors include the potential for management to cut guidance, which could negatively impact sentiment. Additionally, macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation trends and employment data, will play a significant role in shaping MDLZ's performance.