Moody's Corporation (MCO)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$485.07+0.29%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Moody's Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

18.90 → 18.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchases of about $2.5 billion	The company returns capital with $2.5 billion in share buybacks planned.	Intact	Annual share repurchases fall below $2 billion in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
AI integration advances competitive position	AI integration boosts its competitive edge and growth potential.	Intact	No meaningful AI product progress or adoption over next 4 quarters	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted operating margin near 52%-53%	Profit margins stay strong near 53%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 50% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
High-single-digit revenue growth	Moody's grows revenue about 8% a year, hitting high-single-digit growth targets.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 15.12% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202615.12118 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2ed7b08b-e127-4969-a5d8-3b9a2d31bffe. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Moody's revenue grew from $1.9 billion in 2025-Q1 to $2.2 billion in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently reaffirmed guidance for full-year 2026 revenue growth in the high-single-digit percent range, indicating delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$18.92

$18.66 → $18.92 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.88B

$8.85B → $8.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$18.66	$8,846,726,070	24 / 19
2026-07-25	$18.84	$8,892,669,030	15 / 15
2026-07-26	$18.87	$8,893,119,833	16 / 17
2026-07-27	$18.83	$8,891,120,430	24 / 21
2026-07-28	$18.87	$8,893,119,833	16 / 17
2026-07-29	$18.85	$8,894,033,050	24 / 21
2026-07-30	$18.85	$8,894,033,050	24 / 21
2026-07-31	$18.87	$8,895,847,106	16 / 17
2026-08-01	$18.87	$8,895,847,106	16 / 17
2026-08-02	$18.87	$8,888,066,970	24 / 21
2026-08-03	$18.87	$8,888,066,970	24 / 21
2026-08-04	$18.90	$8,890,152,213	16 / 17
2026-08-05	$18.90	$8,890,152,213	16 / 17
2026-08-06	$18.91	$8,889,014,590	24 / 21
2026-08-07	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-08	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-09	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-10	$18.91	$8,889,014,590	24 / 21
2026-08-12	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-13	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-14	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-15	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-16	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-17	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-18	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-19	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-20	$18.93	$8,891,061,304	16 / 17
2026-08-21	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-22	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-23	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-24	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-25	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-26	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-27	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-28	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-29	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-30	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-08-31	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-01	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-02	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-03	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-04	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-05	$18.93	$8,891,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-06	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-07	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-08	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-09	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-10	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-11	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-12	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-13	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-14	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-15	$18.90	$8,882,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-16	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-17	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-18	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-19	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-20	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-21	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-22	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-23	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-24	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-25	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-26	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-27	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-28	$18.89	$8,881,047,667	16 / 17
2026-09-29	$18.89	$8,881,039,799	16 / 17
2026-09-30	$18.89	$8,881,039,799	16 / 17
2026-10-01	$18.89	$8,881,039,799	16 / 17
2026-10-02	$18.89	$8,881,039,799	16 / 17
2026-10-03	$18.90	$8,881,039,799	16 / 17
2026-10-04	$18.90	$8,881,039,799	16 / 17
2026-10-05	$18.90	$8,881,039,799	16 / 17
2026-10-06	$18.90	$8,881,039,799	16 / 17
2026-10-07	$18.90	$8,881,518,557	16 / 17
2026-10-08	$18.89	$8,876,713,397	16 / 17
2026-10-09	$18.89	$8,877,299,760	16 / 17
2026-10-10	$18.89	$8,877,299,760	16 / 17
2026-10-11	$18.89	$8,877,527,033	16 / 17
2026-10-12	$18.89	$8,877,527,033	16 / 17
2026-10-13	$18.92	$8,878,030,306	16 / 17
2026-10-14	$18.92	$8,878,031,601	16 / 17
2026-10-15	$18.92	$8,876,048,738	16 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	7
2026-06-01	16	7
2026-07-01	17	7
2026-08-01	17	7
2026-09-01	18	7
2026-10-01	18	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 7 · prior Jul 22

$512.00 → $470.00-8.2%

$0$281.60$563.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchases of about $2.5 billionRequired source inputs unavailable
AI integration advances competitive positionQualitative condition
Adjusted operating margin near 52%-53%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
High-single-digit revenue growthRevenue growth: 15.12%

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Moody's Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance has been solid, although confidence has shifted to medium.

What's priced into Moody's Corporation

The market currently prices MCO at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, reflecting a durable premium. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating higher performance than what is currently justified by fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve high-single-digit revenue growth and expand operating margins. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent industry misses, which could affect MCO's performance.

What Moody's Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on growth targets. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE will be crucial, as their success could positively influence MCO.