McKesson Corporation (MCK)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$1004.84+0.62%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge McKesson Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

50.55 → 50.67 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS growth of 13% to 16% annually	A primary condition in McKesson Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY EPS growth.	Under Pressure	EPS growth falls below 13% YoY next fiscal year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently reaffirmed long-term adjusted EPS growth targets of 13% to 16%. Fiscal 2026 full year adjusted EPS grew 18% to $39.11, and fiscal 2027 guidance raised to $44.20-$45.00 indicating 13%-15% growth. The trajectory is delivering against the long-term growth commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Oncology & Multispecialty segment revenue growth	Its Oncology segment revenue rose 31% last year.	Broken	Oncology segment revenue growth falls below 20% YoY next fiscal year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Oncology & Multispecialty segment revenues grew from $12.0 billion in 2025-Q2 to $14.2 billion in 2026-Q2, a 33% increase driven by acquisitions and specialty distribution. Adjusted segment operating profit increased 41% in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering growth consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Share repurchase authorization at $7.7 billion	The company increased share buybacks to $7.7 billion.	Intact	Authorization falls significantly below $7 billion within next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 6 quarters. Management increased share repurchase authorization by $5.0 billion to $7.7 billion as of April 2026 and completed $2.5 billion in share repurchases in 2026-Q2. Dividend per share increased 15% in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows active capital return consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$50.67

$50.39 → $50.67 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$461.31B

$463.49B → $461.31B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$50.39	$463,490,443,195	9 / 12
2026-07-25	$50.39	$463,490,443,195	9 / 12
2026-07-26	$50.37	$463,460,796,820	17 / 15
2026-07-27	$50.37	$463,460,796,820	17 / 15
2026-07-28	$50.37	$463,460,796,820	17 / 15
2026-07-29	$50.37	$463,460,796,820	17 / 15
2026-07-30	$50.37	$463,460,796,820	17 / 15
2026-07-31	$50.42	$463,467,000,017	9 / 12
2026-08-01	$50.42	$463,467,000,017	9 / 12
2026-08-02	$50.38	$463,460,796,820	17 / 15
2026-08-03	$50.42	$463,467,000,017	9 / 12
2026-08-04	$50.38	$463,460,796,820	17 / 15
2026-08-05	$50.42	$463,467,000,017	9 / 12
2026-08-06	$50.38	$463,460,796,820	17 / 15
2026-08-07	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-08	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-09	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-10	$50.50	$462,801,882,040	17 / 15
2026-08-12	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-13	$50.53	$462,502,091,780	17 / 15
2026-08-14	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-15	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-16	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-17	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-18	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$50.45	$462,876,478,535	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$50.54	$462,247,175,113	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$50.54	$462,247,175,113	9 / 13
2026-08-22	$50.54	$462,247,175,113	9 / 13
2026-08-23	$50.54	$462,247,175,113	9 / 13
2026-08-24	$50.54	$462,247,175,113	9 / 13
2026-08-25	$50.54	$462,247,175,113	9 / 13
2026-08-26	$50.49	$461,999,741,807	9 / 12
2026-08-27	$50.49	$461,999,741,807	9 / 12
2026-08-28	$50.49	$461,999,741,807	9 / 12
2026-08-29	$50.54	$462,247,175,113	9 / 13
2026-08-30	$50.54	$462,247,175,113	9 / 13
2026-08-31	$50.54	$462,247,175,113	9 / 13
2026-09-01	$50.54	$462,247,188,446	9 / 13
2026-09-02	$50.54	$462,247,188,446	9 / 13
2026-09-03	$50.54	$462,247,188,446	9 / 13
2026-09-04	$50.54	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-05	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-10	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$50.55	$462,247,188,446	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$50.55	$462,247,175,113	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$50.55	$462,247,175,113	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$50.55	$462,177,073,023	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$50.55	$462,177,073,023	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$50.55	$462,177,073,023	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$50.55	$462,177,093,023	9 / 12
2026-09-21	$50.55	$462,177,093,023	9 / 12
2026-09-22	$50.55	$462,177,093,023	9 / 12
2026-09-23	$50.55	$462,177,093,023	9 / 12
2026-09-24	$50.55	$462,177,093,023	9 / 12
2026-09-25	$50.55	$462,177,093,023	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$50.55	$462,177,093,023	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$50.55	$462,177,093,023	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$50.55	$462,177,093,023	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$50.50	$461,924,653,853	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$50.50	$461,924,653,853	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$50.50	$461,924,653,853	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$50.50	$461,924,653,853	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$50.50	$461,924,653,853	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$50.50	$461,924,653,853	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$50.50	$461,924,653,853	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$50.55	$461,916,439,568	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$50.63	$461,323,877,776	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$50.69	$461,323,877,776	7 / 10
2026-10-09	$50.69	$461,323,877,776	7 / 10
2026-10-10	$50.69	$461,323,877,776	7 / 10
2026-10-11	$50.69	$461,323,877,776	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$50.69	$461,323,877,776	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$50.69	$461,308,794,442	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$50.67	$461,308,794,442	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$50.67	$461,308,794,442	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	3
2026-06-01	15	2
2026-07-01	15	3
2026-08-01	14	4
2026-09-01	14	4
2026-10-01	13	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 6

$977.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$537.35$1074.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS growth of 13% to 16% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure
Oncology & Multispecialty segment revenue growthPublished status: Broken
Share repurchase authorization at $7.7 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

McKesson Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MCK represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth targets.

What's priced into McKesson Corporation

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below the company's long-term growth targets. The valuation is aligned with peers, indicating that the market does not see MCK as overly expensive or cheap at this time.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given recent financial performance and management's execution on growth priorities. However, there is a moderate risk due to the company's history of misses and recent cybersecurity incidents.

What McKesson Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on MCK's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and avoid negative guidance changes. Additionally, the performance of sector peers and broader economic conditions, such as job growth, will be crucial for future momentum.